$3/$6 hold 'em

i have A A in MP3.
UTG (fish) limps, UTG+1 (gambler) limps, ..., MP1 (rock) raises, i call, UTG calls.

specifically, MP1 is 28% / 0% / 2.60 over 37 hands, so i can pretty easily narrow his range down. a conservative estimate is AA-QQ/AK but i think a more realistic one is just AA-KK/AK and maybe just AA-KK.

(14 SB) A 9 3
UTG checks, MP1 bets, i ...

if he has KK, i make more just calling and hoping he doesn't wimp out on the turn.

if he has AK, i lose so much action and leave money on the table by just calling.

frequency wise, it's more likely that he has KK obviously, so is flat-calling here best?

OTOH, the fish might come along whether i raise or not, and i don't want to shut him out, so calling might have more value.

aseem

I would call here. You have a damn near unbeatable hand, and your only goal is to extract value. I think that UTG could come along here, and you want another bet from the flop bettor on the turn.

I call here too.

Like you said, he's more likely to have KK here than AK. This is because of card frequency and the fact that most rocks cap more liberally with KK than AK.

You really don't want to scare him here. Let him bet, and let fishy call. The good thing here is that you're last to act. If the rock wimps out and checks the turn, you can bet, and will probably get called because your flop check will arouse suspicion.

I take it you have no reads on UTG?

I think this flop call is quite standard, good sir.

Raising may do two things you don't want. A) Push out UTG, Cool off MP3.

I think it goes without saying that you can make up the 1-2BB you sometimes miss by not raising here on the turn or river. Either through MP3 betting again, and/or by having UTG still in there.

i said a few times in the OP that UTG = fish. he was loose-passive/passive with more than 50 hands on him.

aseem

thanks for the responses.

i'm still uncertain, and the biggest reason by far is UTG. i felt at the time that UTG was either folding to one anyway or calling two cold anyway. get what i mean?

another thought that came to mind was that this player wasn't really a TAG, he was more just a normal loose player who just rarely raised preflop. he seemed to be aggressive postflop, so he would most likely be SL-P/A (i think that's a bomb symbol, or maybe elephant??).

based on that, i felt that my original assumption that a raise would lose him is quite off.

i ended up raising, fishy UTG called two cold, MP1 called.

turn was a brick, checked to me, i bet, both called.

river was a brick, checked to me, i bet, UTG folded and MP1 called and turned over KK.

at worst, i missed out on 1 BB by not waiting for him to raise the turn. it is quite possible, though, that this line actually earned me more value if UTG calls one small bet on the flop then folds to two big bets cold when i raise the turn. if that would have been the case, this line earned me 1 more BB than i would make by flat-calling.

it's closer than we're giving it credit for, IMHO.

aseem

Call and raise the turn. Why not? If he's that much of a rock, and he does have kk or some rocks even with AK will slow down. I've seen rocks slow down more then once with TPTK

easy call here. No need to scare the rock out of betting the turn. Chances are the rock wont fold his cards since they often get tied to their good hands. No draws out there which makes ur set of aces a monster.

Call and hope to raise the turn.

Not close. Stop posting silly hands with clear cut decisions. Why would you raise a non vulnerable hand on the flop in position three handed when you can raise the turn for value when the pots big enough to force KK to consider calling two more to show down??

No draws out there

No reasonable draws. 24 and 45 both have gutshots to beat you.

Good luck.

it's really not close?

doesn't the fact that UTG is fishy have something to do with it? or that KK might slow down on the turn *anyway* after two people call his flop bet?

aseem

doesn't the fact that UTG is fishy have something to do with it? or that KK might slow down on the turn *anyway* after two people call his flop bet?


Well there are a couple of reasons it's not close.

1. UTG is in one of two situations 99% of the time here. He's either C/Ring Ax or he's going to take one off on the flop in a big pot but fold to 2 cold most of the time. (or he's folding which is irrelevant to your action) If he's C/Ring, you raising here almost allways slows him down and you lose a great chace to get two bets in on the flop *AND* stop and go him on the turn for an extra big bet at which point the pot will be far too massive to fold.

2. MP is almost allways only capping with a pair preflop with those stats, so it's very likely KK/QQ. While most players, even at 3/6 will show those down in a pot this size to a flop raise, they're certainly not goig to lead the turn. They'll almost allways lead the turn if this flop isn't raised, as what their worried about is an AK/AQs three-bet preflop that hit and you're almost oblidged to raise the flop there.

3. I don't think AK three-bets this flop heads up and I think very likely checks to you ANYWAY a lot of the time if you raise the flop. If you miss a raise on the flop and he checks KK/QQ, he's going to make you rich anyway and *you're in position* so it's not like it's going to get checked around on the turn regardless.

This is a much more intresting hand if you're in the BB.

good luck.

thanks smash.

while i disagree with part of point #1 (i don't think the fish ever checkraises an ace, i think he just check/calls any number of bets or leads out on the flop), your points are valid.

aseem