Villian is 22/5/1.6 after 40 hands. He has gone to showdown 18% of the time.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: screech is MP2 with [Kc], [Qc].
4 folds.

Flop: (7 SB) [6s], [6c], [Jd] (3 players)
SB checks, screech bets, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) [4c] (2 players)
screech bets, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) [Ah] (2 players)
screech...

Check/fold or bet/fold?

easy check/fold.

there is absolutely no draw on that flop, and no TAG chases with overcard(s) past the turn.

aseem

I bet. *shrug*...it dosent look like he has much other than foldable 7's (8's possibly) ..the river A is a scare card.

IMO of cousre.

if a seeming TAG is calling the turn with 7's or 8's, he is not folding on the river to one bet. if that's what he has, he is obviously loose postflop, and a bluff will be unsuccessful.

i genuinely believe betting here, while tempting, is serious spewing.

aseem

Yeah, good point. I guess if he's calling the turn, he's almost always calling the river to. The WTSD number probably had me a bit too optimistic.

So if there's a draw on the flop, I should be more willing to bet the river because of my lack of showdown value. If I had an ace, it would be a clear check/call right? (again, assuming there was a draw on the flop that never came in)



You're good.

the thing is, that number isn't everything. that includes flops they see from the big blind in five-way pots, or flops where they limp with 2-2 and miss their set. flops seen heads-up in raised preflop pots are way different--most people tend to be far looser and far more aggressive in those.


that depends heavily on the draw and the board and stuff. it also depends on your kicker and the overall strength of your hand. some river aces should be bet for value and others should be check/called.


aseem

We honestly dont know what he is...didnt you just start a thread about ur villian constantly changing "icons" on ur PT in a very short amount of time?




A lot of players fold 7s here to this river, If u bet the river he only beats a complete bluff. on the turn he can put us on a bunch of hands, and everyone of those hands (except KQ) beats 7s by the river. I dunno, maybe bluffing is one of my leaks, but Ive seen plenty of players fold in these situations.

sweet, I got it? :-)

this stat is only significant in making reads if you have thousands of hands on the villian, or at least 750

All except the foldable part. :oops:

meh, I still think u can get a fold often enough...

I'd ch/f anything other than an AKQ (or club) on the river fwiw. SO imo ur not going to see this situation too often, so if it is a mistake, it probably isnt "serious spewing".

I might be completely wrong, this is just what I would do.

40 hands and a VP$IP of around 20% is quite enough to reasonably infer wtih reasonable confidence that villian is TAGish. whether he's aggressive or passive isn't completely certain yet, fine, but TAs/TPs dont usually call the turn on a no-draw board with just overcards or without a hand that they're not going to showdown with, IMHO.




you haven't seen what they folded...

i don't think this is that close. mike caro has written a lot in his old cardplayer articles about how bluffing on the river is a huge leak for good players.

this board is ultra-draw-free on the turn, and it is really very rare to find someone who calls a turn bet with a hand like 7-7 then folds it unimproved on the river, even when a scare card of sorts like an ace lands.


aseem

I dont think its a huge leak, it would be if Im betting out when a 9d falls, but Im not. If I'm only bluffing when an A comes I dont think it would be a Huge Leak (if it is a leak at all). If he folds 1 in 6 times its profitable no? you really think you'll get a call all 6 times from pkt 7s when an A hits the river? I dont.



If I was the villian and I had no reads against the hero, Id fold it (not that I would play it the same way as the villian did, but If I did call down I would fold the to the river ace). By the turn, what hands would u have the villian on (considering hes not a maniac)? AA-88 AK AQ AJ..maybe KQs.. maybe Ac10c. right? I cant think of much else. And if you do put him on those hands would u call the river when it comes an A with 7s?

So..as I am playing this hand, If my read is right (it was) and I believe the villian has 77 or 88.. I feel comfortable throwing one more bet in there to try and take the pot. IMO the A is a scare card, and that river can make a mid pair fold.

just how I'd play it anyway, I dont use to much math though, more of a feel dude.

Thanks Kdawg.

What stats converge quick enough to get a generalized read after say, 50 hand?