Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: screech is UTG+2 with [Th], [Qh].
2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) [8s], [5h], [Jh] (6 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (13 BB) [As] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, screech bets...

Such a big pot. So many outs. So many opponents.
Am I getting value from this bet enough to make it worthwhile?

unfortunately not.

you can easily be up against a set, and what's worse, two of your straight outs are tainted spades.

SB has slowed down, gladly check and hope the two check behind you so you get a free card.

aseem

I think there might be here.

There are 5 people in the pot, who are all likely to call due to the large pot. You have 7 clean flush outs and 4 clean straight outs. 11 outs = 25% chance to win the pot here. You are getting 4 calls for every 1 bet you put in there. If everyone else calls, then you do have value in betting here. This is also dependent on nobody else having a flush draw, or the same straight draw.

you have to discount for all those "clean" outs. that's what partial outs is about.

by counting all of them, you are leaving yourself no wiggle room, and then you break even against a field of three opponents if one of them folds.

the fortunate thing is, you are drawing to the nuts for your straight and to a damn good flush as well, so your partial outs are probably very close to your full outs.

this is close, but i believe that the points that you can be up against a set/two-pair or that one or two people fold behind you makes this a bad bet. if you had showdown value, i think it leans towards betting in case you can ever make a better hand fold (e.g. if someone raises with a turned spade draw and a lower pair, etc.).

aseem

I guess the question really is, how many of those that are behind you are gonna call this bet, and how many do you think will fold. That might give you the answer right there. If I was in position, its a check I think, but we do have two to act after us, and two that might call the bet when it gets back to them. reads would really help here

a really good reason to check is that you can checkraise if the guy to your left bets and all three call. if just two call, i much prefer calling.

aseem

Sorry, forgot the reads.

The table was a mix of loose-passives, and semi-loose sorta-aggressives. The only player I bothered to jot down was SB. He was 28/6/1.3 after 87 hands.

FWIW, I thought pretty much everyone would call the turn bet after the flop was capped. Also, no draws came in, and an overcard came to the board. This will scare all made hands, and even hands that hit an ace will have to be somewhat worried that I capped the flop. What does all this mean? I felt there was a very good chance that it would not get raised behind me.

I wonder if all the hearts are live here. There's just too much action and callers on that flop. Even all the 9's for one of your straights might not be live as someone with T9 might drawing to a straight. So you might be drawing at fewer cards than you think.

I'm not too worried about the backdoor flush. If some guy is gunning for runner-runner flush after all that action, be sure to write his name down.

I think check/calling may be the best option here, but betting certainly isn't a big mistake here.