Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Jc], [Js].
UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (14.40 SB) [2c], [Qs], [7h] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Bet out to test hand. Expected UTG to fold.

Turn: (8.70 BB) [4c] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

I'm not too pleased with this one. I put UTG on an Queen-rag and MP2 on Ace-King as he has been aggressive in the past with pocket pairs or when he hit the board.

I didn't think a bet would make UTG fold as he is your basic call-station type and he surely wouldn't fold top pair even with a weak kicker.

A bet would of probably be the better move as it may make the MP2 fold and I wouldn't have to worry about an ace or king falling on the river and I might of got myself a free showdown.

I took the free card hoping to hit my two outer instead.

River: (8.70 BB) [7c] (4 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Not 100% sure I'm beaten so I feel a call is correct here.

Final Pot: 10.70 BB

Comments and suggestions please.

How in the world can you assume UTG+2 has a queen rag when he called on that flop? I can see many a hand that would limp in from EP, AND call 2 cold, most of which are NOT queen rag. :?

If you plan to call a river bet, it is probably best to bet/fold the turn. This way, you can take a free showdown if you want, and you get more money in the pot when you connect with your set.

This makes sense. I remember hearing this before so I just reread a couple of pages in SSHE (176-177) and it says the same thing.

Thanks

I have a feeling you might have won this one.

I have seen that same play where the preflop raisers check the turn it usually means they are giving up on the hand with Ax or Kx big.

I think the UTG+2 bets out the river trying to take down the pot since both the aggressors suddenly lost intrest.

Definately bet out the turn.

Without any reads on this player I'm thinking the last thing he has is Queen rag. How many people limp early position with Queen rag after a limper, and then also call two more bets, preflop?

Unless he's the most passive calling station on the planet, he doesn't have AQ, KQ either.

22 or 77 are possibilities, with him slowplaying you on the flop, and hoping for/expecting a bet to check/raise on the turn....with no draws on the flop he doesn't have to protect his set yet.

The only other thing that crosses my mind is Ax suited, and bad for you if his kicker is a 7, or the suit is clubs.

Some fishies will play 8c9c this way, or Kx clubs, from early position.

Bet the turn, everytime...you'll know soon enough if he has his Queen (or a flush draw) or set...fold to a raise. I've seen too many players who will call a small bet on this board with a K or A in their hand, but they won't call a big bet.

I've seen a helluva lot of other players online who will call their naked Ace/King to the river on this board. Again, without reads, I'd say most times his river bet says he has more than just an Ace or King...unless he has reason to believe his Ace wins here.

I think I fold the river...I'm more than 90% sure you're beat....and I think more than 90% of the time you are beat here. What could he have here, based on his betting, that you beat? 88, 99, TT - is he the type to limp or raise with these preflop? 66, 55, 33 - I'd say those are your only chances? Is this calling station also the type to throw out a stone cold bluff?

Even the biggest fish online grow some nuts once in a while to bluff at the river when shown weakness once in a while.

Anyways, I'd Bet/Fold the turn here and hopefully getting a free showdown rather than checking and hoping to hit my 2 outer and being put to a tough river decision. This way you charge hands like AK and smaller pairs a bet and lose the same amount if your opponent has a Queen.

Sure, you might get bluffed off the best hand once in a while, but that's fairly unlikely given the pre-flop aggression shown here, he has to put you on a big hand and would probably not check-raise the turn without at least a strong Queen.

Thanks for the comments.

This hand I didn't feel good about at all as I know I donked it up. Regardless if I won or loss (I'll post that a little later) it was played wrong.

I narrowed down what I thought the other players had too much. There were much wider possibilities of hands and I just played scared to the possiblility of the queen.

The turn bet/fold to a check-raise option seems to fit in this situation best.

if MP2 checkraises with a decent frequency, check the turn. otherwise, bet/fold the turn.

in other words, if MP2 is aggressive/tricky, check the turn. otherwise, if he's passive/straightforward, bet/fold it.

aseem

UTG ended up having Qh-8h. lost the pot