CO = 28/1.7/0.61 after 50 hands
UTG = basically unknown

Preflop: Hero is Button with A:club:, K:heart:.
UTG calls, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 2:club:, Q:club:, 9:spade: (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, CO calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) K:spade: (3 players)
UTG bets

Questions:

1) Did I misplay the flop? I couldn't justify raising at the time with only BB behind me but maybe I should have.

2) What in the world do I do with this turn?

Jeff

Flop is fine.

I'm still thinking about the turn...I think it's a fold, but I'll work it out anyway.

I'm not at all scared about UTG. It's the passive CO that has me worried.

I'm going to put him on a hand range, to figure out how many outs you have:

KQ (6) - 3 outs
Q9 (9) - 5 outs
K9 (6) - 6 outs
22 (3) - 0 outs
99 (3) - 0 outs
Kx (8) - 33 outs
JT (16) - 0 outs

That leaves us with about 7.1 outs. This is not good enough to call getting 4.4:1.

If you think an opponent this passive won't make this play with Kx of clubs, then your chances are even worse - you only have about 2.3 outs

I'm thinking raise or fold the flop - is this a place to overcall? I know it's hard to give up one small bet to see the turn, but I'm not sure you win as often as you think here. Raise, fold, call, in that order. If you raise the flop, and still get bet, raise on the turn then your decision is easy.

What is betting and calling ahead of you here where you're in good shape - if you're against a pair and a straight draw, you're almost dead.

If one of your cards comes you may already be facing AQ/KQ...one of your kings shows a flush board, and any king shows a straight board. You're drawing to fewer outs than you may think. I think you have to count three Aces as your only outs, and though I think it's not likely here, you're drawing dead to three hands with Aces. Your better hope is the bd flush.

Do you call this flop with AJ? or A3? Because either of them are better than AK with this board and this situation? (unless you really think you're up against AT)


I think I have to fold this turn - pretty loose, pretty passive, and he's raising? Is he one to represent a straight against two other players?

Calling is superior to either folding or raising. There is no point in raising. The only reason you'd raise with overcards here is to clean up some of your outs, or if you thought you had the best hand. Neither is true here. You have to overs (~2 outs), and a bd nut flush draw (~1.5 outs) and bd straight draw (~0.5 outs). You are unlikely to get raised if you call, and you are unlikely to clean up outs if you raise. Getting 10.5:1 on your call, which is just enough to peel one off here.

Call, fold, raise, in that order.

a raise on the flop is okay specifically and pretty much only if UTG is either a very chronic donkey bluffer or if he's a very passive fish. without a read, and in every other case, calling is much better.

on the turn, i think it's close between three-betting and folding. i don't like calling much. i'd much rather fold UTG out of there and set myself up for a free showdown if i decide to continue.

aseem

I don't know - you might scare off low/middle pairs, leaving you against the straight draw which makes you the best hand (briefly).

Even if I concede the four outs you calculate, your odds of hitting a winning hand on the turn are 10.75:1 - you still have to make up a bet...not to mention only two of your estimated outs become evident on the turn. The bd flush or bd straight will force you to make one more bet on the turn, where you will only get 7:1 - viable for the flush, but not the gutshot straight.

As well, since your opponent probably has a straight draw, your backdoor straight draw pretty much went out to window and is not worth counting...either that, or your opponent is on a flush draw so your bd flush draw isn't worth counting.

And, if you do hit one of your Aces on the turn, at least 1/4 of the time you are going to lose the hand anyway on the river (if you're not already beat).

This is one of those hands where you look at the board and see 8 outs, but realistically, in this particular situation, with a flop bettor and caller in front of you, you probably only have 2.

There's been a bet and call in front of you. You are only looking to fold one person out. Please don't raise here. It's really not worth it.



Not really. You're getting 10.5:1 and you're about 10.75:1 to hit. that's 0.25SB or 0.125BB. That's all you have to make up. And that's assuming the BB doesn't call...

I really don't like how people try to discount bd draws because they only become evident on the turn. It has to do with your equity now. You get to re-evaluate on the turn. Actually, you discount the flush draws a bit because it's really worth 4.16% equity, or about 2 outs.

If you pick up a gutshot straight draw, you can also re-evaluate. You don't have to call the turn. In fact, you can discount the gutshot, and only consider it when you pick up a flush draw too. That gives you 4.5% equity, or a little more than 2 outs. You should still count these two draws together as about 2 outs.



Actually, it's neither. You're backdoor straight draw is to the nuts, so if you make it, you win. It doesn't matter if your opponent is on a straight draw. Same goes for the bd flush. If you make it, you win. Your opponent cannot make a flush and beat you when you make a flush. It's impossible.



I'd like to know how you came up with this 1/4.

Don't forget, we already accounted for this when we discounted our six over card outs. We count them as 2 total remember?



You're discounting your outs too much IMO. We have about 2 outs alone in bd draws. [/b]

Screech - very good points.

Just some responses (right or wrong) :-)



It's still one bet you have to make up - you can't bet 0.125 bets.



The point is, if you are on a bd flush draw in clubs and your opponent is on a 4 flush in clubs, that means you only have 7 outs to make your runner runner and not 9....losing those two outs you've cut your chances in half.



If you hit an Ace on the turn a club flush draw has 8 outs (you have a club) and TJ straight draw has 8 outs...either will beat you 18% of the time (OK - slight exaggeration). If buddy with a lower pair sticks around, that's two more outs - you lose 22% of the time...if you're against a straight and two-pair - 12 outs...26%...if you're against a flush and straight draw - 14 outs...and so on - I'd say 1/4 is a reasonable estimate.

I think 4 outs is the absolute most you can count here, and it may be an error to give yourself that many (and yes, it may be an error for me to count too few with 2). How does 3 sound?

The point I was trying to make is that it will be very easy to make up these bets.



Yeah, but we can't assume he has 2 clubs. It's true that if he does, our bd flush draw is only worth about 1 out. But, our chances A and K outs become cleaner. In either case, I think our total outs will remain the same.



3.5 :twisted: .

I admit it's a close flop call, but I think with good postflop play, a call is profitable here. I think folding is better than raising though.

Interesting discussion, but I need more input on the turn. Screech, I like your take on it... Aki, I had the same thought as you, raise or fold. Is a 3-bet really +EV on a coordinated board like this?

I think if the flop where 2 - Q - 7 I'd be much more inclined to 3-bet here. Then again, villain is awefully passive post flop... I think I did the right thing, but I'm still debating on it.

Jeff

I think CO would have to be pretty passive as well.

Basically, you should be calling the flop in most situations, raising in a very select few, and folding if you don't play well postflop.



If a king falls on the turn?? Absolutely.
It depends on your opponents though.
If you do 3-bet the turn on the 2-Q-7-K board, you should take the free showdown if you don't improve.





I really don't think so. In fact, I think if you can't fold the turn in this situation, you are probably better off just folding the flop.