copernicus
Sunday, September 18th, 2005, 9:38 PM
QUOTE (tskillz187)
QUOTE (copernicus)
AK is too strong a hand to push with.
http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...pic.php?t=28584
see my last post.
I'll do the math later, but you need to try and pick up more than blinds with a quality hand when you arent that desperate, and you dont need to risk everything on a coin flip. You should be able to see the flop here and decide what to do.
If you reread HOH II he does not advocate pushing with Yellow Zone hands, just that you loosen your standards and become more aggressive, looking to double up. Even with Orange Zone hands, which you are approaching here, he says "you'll often have to consider an all-in move" with first in vigorish, not that you are always pushing.
He is gaining 40% of his stack by pushing and getting a fold. This seems like a substantial amount to me, 3.5k +400 +800 +500 (i believe 50 antes at this point in UB tourneys) 5.2k total.
His stack is 13k, calling the 3.5k raise puts his stack at 9.5k, the pot would be 8.7k. That is a gigantic pot to just let go any time you dont hit an A or K.
Just because you think the all in or fold move is an online play does not make it the incorrect play right here. I think it is the right play to make, if he doubles up hes the top 3 in chips and can most certaintly coast into the money.
There are 134 players left. Doubling up is nowhere near putting him in position to "coast into the money" , even from the top 3, unless payments go so deep that all you are collecting is 1.5x your buy in. Nobody is running away with the tournament, in fact he's still "in contact" with the chip leader if he folds.
However, if there are $50 antes at this point (which was not in the original post) then it makes pushing a lot more viable then without antes. In fact, based on some estimates I did in another post, this might be right around the "inflection point" where a push becomes the better play. If there are no antes Im not risking the tourney on a coin flip.