Heads up in $10 limit SNG. Villian has been uber-tight. I have 6980 in chips, he has 1020. Blinds are 300/600 and I'm on the BB.

I get deal 6 4 , he moves all in.

I assume I've got two live cards here, and I have to put in 420 to win the pot of 1620.

In that respect I would think I have odds to call it right?

Yes, you have the odds (if your cards are live). But you said he was playing uber-tight, so he may have a pair, to which you're a huge underdog unless he pushed with 22, 33, or 55.

What were the results of the hand? I'm assuming you called.

This is an automatic call. Even if he has an overpair you almost have the odds to call. You have to call here.

Super duper easy call. You are calling this blind.

The results aren't really important to me as to the fact that I thought I had the odds to call it. One of those concepts I wanted to make sure I had learned.

Earlier in the same SNG I had two shorstacks go allin behind me and from the BB I only had to put in another 75 chips to win about 800, and called with Q2o.


























However.... since you asked.

** Dealing Flop ** [ T:club: , 4:club: , 6:club: ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6:spade: ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2:heart: ]

villian shows [ Q:heart:, A:club: ] a pair of sixes.
FCPjsull shows [ 6:diamond:, 4:heart: ] a full house, Sixes full of fours.

Results notwithstanding, this is very close, and in fact this starting chip ratio of 6.8 to 1 appears to be an "inflection point" for calling with anything.

If you fold the chip counts are 6380 and 1620 so you win 80% of the time based on simple chip ratios.

Assuming you have a 1/3 chance to win if you call, 1/3 of the time you win and 2/3 of the time the chip stacks are 5960 vs 2040 and you are 75% to win. 1/3*1 + 2/3*.75 = .833...a slight advantage to calling. Increase your hand winning chances to 40% (cant get much better than that!) and your tourney winning chance increase to 85%. Decrease them to 20% (ie you are facing an overpair) you are right at 80% so calling and folding are equal.

The only reason one might lean toward folding here is the size of the blinds relative to the stacks, which may make chip ratios too simple a formula. His unadjusted M (no reason to adjust HU) is less than 2 and he is the BB next hand and so he is nearly a forced all in again. So why not wait and go all in when you are almost guaranteed to be in better shape than you are in this hand?

If the blinds are increasing very soon I would lean strongly toward folding, otherwise either way looks fine to me, though I would probably fold here and be ready to go all in next hand.

What are you talking about? You're getting just about 4-1 to call and you're even considering folding? You are calling this blind easy.

Sorry, but you are considering hand odds only, not tournament odds. This is very close. Decrease the intial chip ratios to just 6.6/1 instead of 6.8/1 and there is no way that calling is right, despite the 4/1 hand odds.

Note that Action Dan raises the standard for an automatic call all the way to a 10/1 chip ratio.

I guess I'm incapable of seeing how this is even close. I kind of want to post this in general strategy where more people would reply because I can't imagine that anyone else would think this was a close decision. Getting 3.86ish to 1 here, I can't imagine folding anything and just giving him my $600 blind when it only costs $420 more to call.

We've had certain disagreements before, and I think you've helped me look at various hands in different ways. For this hand however, I can't understand your logic at all.

Forget the logic, look at the math. Unless I made a math error (it has happened before..very recently in fact if you look at my last edit lol), or if you dont believe the chip ratio method of estimating tourney winning probabilities, its very clear that this call is close. (Though as I said above, if chip ratio probabilities are wrong, its because they dont favor the chip leader enough with blinds this big compared to the stacks and with the chip "lagger" facing the next bb).

I wouldnt be surprised if there is a 2+2 thread that discusses "inflection points" for automatic calls depending on starting chip ratios, the size of the blinds, and who is the bb.

I am, that's why I can't understand your argument. If you are getting nearly 4-1 to call, how can you consider folding? I'm not terribly familiar with your tournament odds math (I understand it, just not great at incorporating it into my game), but I can't imagine that whatever argument it creates is strong enough to make this even close. You are saying that you are considering giving this $1620 pot away because you don't want to call another $420, with the chance to knock this guy out and the likelihood that you aren't even close to being a 4-1 underdog.

Yes, the math says it is a toss up here. The 60-70% probability of losing those extra 420 chips changes the tournament results enough to overcome the overlay in TC odds you are getting here.

To look at it another way, how much is that overlay really worth in tournament chips?

If you fold you are -600.

If you call and say you are actually a 2/1 dog (kind of middle of the range and makes the math easy) then your EV is 2/3*-1020 + 1/3*+1020 = -1020/3 = -340, so you are losing 240 fewer chips by calling...less than the difference between next hand's big and small blinds.

To put it yet another way that avoids the harder (but not all of the) math but should show you how close a call this really is:

if you fold and "give away" the big blind, you have increased his stack to 1620, and he is still pretty much in an all-in on anything situation. Your chances of knocking him out next hand is 1/2, and even if he doubles up that hand youve still got a 1500 TC lead so you must be at least 1/2 to win from that point on. In combination a fold leaves you better than a 75% favorite.

If you call and lose youve doubled him up to 2040 (to your 5960) and you are just under 75% favorite because youve got slightly less than 75% of the chips.

So calling takes you from something over 75% to win the tourney to something just under 75%...close!!