Ok... An interesting situation from a tournament a few nights ago. I play an MTT where there is a notoriously quick blind structure and in the mid levels I was on about 4500k chips from 1k starting. A tightish player raised up to around 2k with the blinds at 200/400 and from the BB I look down and see AK. I felt he had a mid pair from the size of the raise as his really strong hands tended t go up by around 3 times the BB.

Passing is an option, but not a great one so the way I saw it I had two decisions. Call and see a flop and if I miss fold and continue with about 2k in chips. This way I would get three shots at hitting my 6 saving cards.

Alternatively, I could move in for the 4500 and have 5 shots at hitting my AK but obviously risk elimination if I miss altogether.

So which would be the optimum move in this spot? pay for three shots at taking an medium pot or risk it all for 5 shots at doubling up?

How much does the other guy have? Are there any limpers? What position is the other guy raising from? Is your stack considered a shortstack at the table? How much longer until blind go up again?

Seriously, those are all huge factors in deciding what to do.

Fair comment... He had me covered but not by much, no limpers and he is going from mid / late position. I am not the shortest stack but with 10 BBs I am getting down there and the blinds rise every fifteen minutes so they woulda been at 3/6 within 5 minutes probably... Hope this helps.

The problem is, if you see the flop and fold, and then have to give up the SB next time, you're looking at around 2k in chips which means you'll be having to move in with any halfway decent cards on the next orbit... So I think you're going to have to go all in here.

Yea, with that information he could be pulling the move with a variety of hands worse than yours. All in.

Easy move in. Your hand figures to be best or a coinflip, which is worth a chance to double up at this stage in the tournament.

Additionally your opponent could easily have AQ, AJ, KQs, or even worse. Calling and seeing the flop may make you fold the best hand.

Don't call. Do the other choice.

You don't ever want to get involved with a chip leader to start. If he's a tight/solid player you don't want to try and draw against him.

Lets say he's holding KK or AA, then you're in trouble.

I say lay it down, wait till you have him.

GL Broski

All in is the only option that makes sense.

Folding- I will never fold AK with an M under 10 unless there's a raise, and a rock reraises.

Calling- -EV because you will only hit the flop about 25% of the time (correct me if I'm wrong)

All in- The best move possible. Take your chances on a coinflip, you may even have him dominated here.

you will hit the flop (1 - 44/50) * 100 % of the time = 31.5%. but actually it will probably be less sice he is more likely to have an ace or king as opposed to any other card. Still don't like the call/fold non ak flops, since it

a) makes you a bigger dog against a pair, since you don't see the turn or river

lets hands like AQ bluff you some of the time

c) lets some of his hands get away on A, or K high flops

d) gives him a chance to draw if he has something he would fold to your all in. (unlikely but possible)

you will hit the flop (1 - (44/50)^3 ) * 100 % of the time = 31.5%. but actually it will probably be less sice he is more likely to have an ace or king as opposed to any other card. Still don't like the call/fold non ak flops, since it

a) makes you a bigger dog against a pair, since you don't see the turn or river

lets hands like AQ bluff you some of the time

c) lets some of his hands get away on A, or K high flops

d) gives him a chance to draw if he has something he would fold to your all in. (unlikely but possible)

You should probably eliminate this option. Saying him folding to your all in is unlikely is being extremely generous. There's a better chance of him folding by misclick than any other way (he doesn't say if this is live or online, but you know what I mean).

Yeah, d is barely a factor at all, but it's still there, it's not worth alot, and i pretty much just threw it in for the sake of completeness. It's not impossible, I have seen some crazy folds before.

one hand in a small buyin live tournament I played went like this: 2 limpers, I go all in for 2.5x bb with the Ah, and another card i hadn't looked at, all fold, wtf, I almost fell out of my seat laughing. Crazy stuff happens, even if it only happens on very rare occasions.