Varience.

Is it hitting me or not?

I'm in that "in between levels" kinda stage. Bankroll around $1200. I have been playing .50/1.00 limit mostly, and occasionally 1/2. Just recently I've played a few 2/4 tables and overall done ok with them. So, at 2/4, I'm about break-even, and at .50/1.00 I'm a winning player, but I am having a helluva time at 1/2 though.

A combination of bad beats plus bad plays has truly gotten the most of me. With (a very small sample size, I know) about 3000 of 1/2 hands in my latest PT database, I'm down about $350. I can't seem to win with my good hands.

One thing: I've re-read SSHE. Since re-reading it, and it finally sinking in to my brain, I have started to apply concepts from this to my game. In doing so, I've become a much tighter player (VPIP used to be 23-24%, is now 16-18%). Since this time is when I noticed this downswing. One glaring stastical improbablity, is that I am losing a TON of money with QQ (winning percentage = 33%) and AQs. Again, with this one, I'm chalking it up to varience, as I went through the QQ hands I found I was beat by a rivered flush, a rivered gutshot, and a flopped set (which I totally misplayed).


But can I chalk this all up to varience?

Can I be playing TOO tight? Some sessions I'm seeing 9-12% VPIP for my game. After going through my first 15k hands in PT, I decided to eliminate JTs and 9Ts altogether unless on the button.

I'm at a loss right now, as I'm halfway through the Empire reload and already down $200. I'm all of the sudden much less confident in my game, especially once I saw my PT icon change from TA to TAP.

Don't mean to be so long winded. I'm just looking for some real advice, because I just don't know what the hell I'm doing wrong if I even am.

Or maybe too passive.

.

You should play those hands from LP or even MP if you know the pot is going to be multi handed.



Too passive it is. It'd explain the % of losses with AQs or QQ too. You're getting too afraid of being beat. For exemple, sometimes, especially when you raised pf, AQs can win unimproved. Maybe you should raise that flop then ?

heres a couple things that i see wrong from ur post

it seems u are tryin to jump from .5/1 to 2/4 mainly b/c u have a 2/4 bankroll...that is not wise and a receipe for disaster. ur br doesnt matter as much as ur BB/100 does...If u are averaging around 2BB/100 at .5/1 then make the jump to 1/2...and then stay at 1/2 for a while till u make sure u can hang there then move up to 2/4... In my own game i find myself tentative at first when i jump levels just b/c im feeling out the level and u win/lose more money. This can lead to u playing over tight

The second thing is a continuation of the first. You are likely playing over tight either A. b/c ur scared to lose or B. b/c ur post flop play isnt strong enough and its costing you (ie being to passive or not knowing what to do)

sshe lists the hands they do for a reason. they are +ev over the long run. There are some close calls that u can eliminate if u dont feel comfortable with them yet but overall if u stick to the hand selections you will win. When i am not confident in my play..i actually put the hand list right in front of me and check to make sure im thinking the right way...You should consider trying that. it does work and it does build confidence. You will earn the money back if u continue to play the right way so dont worry

overall i would say a combination of variance and subpar play is probably the reason for ur downswing right now

thanks for the replies guys. I have gotten a bit passive, but when I look at the detail, it's only on the flop that's sticking out as being passive. I had a good night last night, and it helped a bit.

matt, I know what you're saying about the BR. I had been playing 1/2 for a while. I recently only decided on 2/4 for a bit as it was easier to clear points for the pokerstars bonus that way. After treading water there, I played a bit on the party network too. I don't see the correlation between skill and BR level though. IMO, If my BR supports it, I should be able to play at bigger games every once in a while.

Again, this is about 3400 hands: Can somebody tell me how this looks?

VPIP - 17.59 / AF 1.98
Went to SD - 25.55% (too high , too low?)
W$ at SD - 56.12 (that's par right?)

It seems when I'm losing, I'm losing pretty big.

Looking at the biggest losers in 1/2, I see my set vs higher set, and my KK vs AA, my QQ vs AA, things like this.....

So, maybe it is ? But I'm definitely a bit passive on the flop it seems.

that seems to contradict ur statements in ur first post...and no just b/c u have a br worth of the level doesnt mean u are ready. There isnt a lot of changes but there will be more skill as the levels progress..if u are beating 1/2 for 2BB/100 then its fine to make a run at 2/4..but if u arent then stick to 1/2 till u put up some better numbers

You're right, it does.

As I looked up my old numbers I ended up finding out that out of my first 15000 hands I played 7000 at .50/1.00 and 8000 at 1/2. So I ended up playing more at 1/2 than I thought I did.

I'm trying to figure out the problem with my 1/2 game. I am doing fine at .50/1.00, and I believe I'm playing well enough to win at 1/2, but somethings going wrong.

Perhaps I need to give it another 10000 hands or so, and re-evaluate again.

Agree.