Jesse Jersey
Thursday, September 8th, 2005, 8:39 AM
How many hands does one need to play in order to have the results/trends be significant. I don't mean just statistically signficant...but how many to show that you are indeed a winning/losing player, crushing the games, etc.?
Thanks for the help.
Kendren
Thursday, September 8th, 2005, 8:45 AM
a million is what I've heard.
allinbluff35
Thursday, September 8th, 2005, 8:45 AM
100k probably
akishore
Thursday, September 8th, 2005, 9:01 AM
this is an ambiguous question and it's pretty unanswerable.
it's all about certainty, or HOW confident you want to be (confidence interval is the term).
if you want 90% confidence, you could probably get away with X number of hands.
95% confidence, you'd need more, 99% confidence you'd need much more, 99.99% confidence, a huge sample, etc.
aseem
zeropants
Thursday, September 8th, 2005, 9:58 AM
From what I've seen, to get at least general comments (nothing too specific), you need 10k-25k depending on how consistant you consider yourself to stay...i.e., how often you stick to your style. Obviously the more you stick to a standard style, the less hands you need to see a patter, but if you're starting out and trying to find a way to play, you'll need minimum 25k hands.
psujohn
Thursday, September 8th, 2005, 11:10 AM
It also depends on how big of a range around your win rate you want to zero in on. In otherwords if you're -10BB/100 over 3K hands there's probably a decent chance you're a losing player. If you're 3BB/100 over 3K hands there's a decent chance you're a winning player though your actual winrate may be anywhere between 0-6BB/100.
If all you care about is are you a winning player or a losing player I'd guess that 3K hands would give you a reasonable basis for estimating. If you're better than 2BB/100 you're likely a winning player, worse than -2BB/100 you're likely a losing player. Somewhere in between - call yourself break even and make up the difference with bonuses.
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