$2/$4 hold 'em, ten-handed

i'm EP2 with A K .
i open-raise, ... MP1 cold-calls, MP2 cold-calls, Button cold-calls, blinds fold.

Button is a super fish.
he plays 100% of his hands preflop, usually takes everyone to the river where he sometimes folds and sometimes calls and sometimes raises with air.
he bluffs and semi bluffs a lot.

(9 SB) K Q 10
i bet, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

(6 BB) 8
i bet, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Button calls.

(9 BB) 6
i sigh and decide to value bet, ...

i mean, i think it's good, but i honestly hate making these bets.

is it good, or is it bad?

oh, and i intend to call a raise. i don't have a solid enough read on MP2 to believe a raise, and i KNOW Button/super-fish will raise with air way too much to make folding right.

aseem

Methinks this is a good bet.

A total brick came on the river. If they never raised the turn, they're unlikely to raise the river. Since you'll call if they bet, you may as well bet yourself. This gets more money against most SS players in the long run.

What are you talking about? A total blank falls and you are afraid to value bet? Easiest value bet ever.

I'm check calling this river. They're not calling a bet if they were drawing, but they might bet when checked to. Am i flawed??

I agree, easy bet here.

Jeff

no to your question.

that's why i'm torn on whether this bet really does have value, or at least more value than a check/call.

aseem

Even morons rarely try to bluff against 3 opponents. Checking to induce a bluff is a HU play, not multiway. It is likely 1 or 2 of them will call your bet but won't bet. Easy bet.

QJ will usually pay you off at the end.

I would think at least one of them has a weaker made hand. They will probably not bet if you check, but they would call if you bet.

Draws usually aren't going to bet if you check, especially against more than one opponent. You may gain an extra bet from the bluff happy button, but then again, you may not. You may also miss out if he would have raised you with garbage. This could trap MP in for an extra bet if he has a weaker made hand.

I check it there. I get hammered all the time by people who let me take the lead and then raise me on the river. I don't fold because the pot is too big, and then they show me the nuts.

this is a pretty easy value bet. Worse kings calls, QJ calls, Q9 calls and so do a lot of other amazingly dumb hands. I dont know why, but donkeys will look you up with any two.

thanks for the replies.

i've concluded that in this specific hand, value betting is correct, and that's what i did. i got one caller and won the hand.

in other instances with a similar unimprved TPTK, though, i think some value bets might be closer.

aseem