$2/$4 hold 'em, ten-handed

sorry, no real reads since i've been posting on FCP all day and kinda auto-piloting this table. the table is loose obviously, and passive for the most part with some streaks of bluffing and aggression.

i'm EP3 with K 8 .
..., EP2 limps, i limp, ..., MP2 limps, MP3 limps, ... Button raises (for kicks... don't you?), MP3 cold-calls, Button calls, SB calls, EP2 calls, i call.

(19 SB) Q J 3
SB bets (he is a super-fish, extremely loose and decently aggressive), EP2 calls, i call, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

(12 BB) 5
SB bets, EP2 folds, i call, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Button calls.


1. how good/bad is the flop call?

2. should i be raising the turn for some reason?

aseem

You're well aware that K8s is slightly loose from EP pre-flop, but that's been a regular argument around here lately, so I won't belabor the point.

Flop call is good. You've got 3-4 outs. Pot's laying you enough odds.

Why would you raise the turn? Try to clean up a king or something?

you're telling me to fold K8s in this ridiculously soft game?! i flat-out refuse, sir!

anyway, yeah, i was wondering if i should be raising the turn to clean up outs since the pot is so massive.

then again, should i be raising the flop...?

this is something i continuously struggle with.

theoretically, you could raise every single draw, anywhere from 0.5 outs to 18 outs if doing so improved your winning chances in a huge pot. but how big does the pot have to be and how much equity must you expect to gain to make raising > calling?

aseem

it works, I dig

keith, do you raise the turn?

aseem

3-4 outs? where? isn't two backdoor draws about equivalent to a two-outer? and i hope you're not counting the king...

i seem to recall having this discussion and someone did the math and it comes out to being about a two-outer.

someone correct me if i'm wrong.

if we were in later position and had like 3 callers infront, yea, but I'm not seeing a raise here

this hand sums up why i dislike limpin with hands like these...ur forced to call down with just a prayer of hitting the backdoor flush after u miss a flop

Backdoor flush + backdoor straight + backdoor two pair/trips

You have to discount your backdoor outs a little bit with this many people in the pot. i don't like counting backdoor two pair/trips here, since with this many callers, you could be drawing dead after turning a pair.

fold preflop... since you refuse to fold preflop, just call down

I still think we can find 3 outs. Add in implied odds...it's a call.

backdoor flush = 1.5 outs
backdoor straight = 1 out
overcard = 1.5 outs

you guys are folding a 4-outter on this flop, getting 21-to-1?

even a 2-outter should peel.

the more i think about it, the more i find folding the flop just horrible.

aseem

i'm not thinking of raising for value, but more to buy outs, increase winning chances, etc.

if i can win this big pot by spiking a pair of kings on the river, that would be pretty damn sweet?

so it boils down to math, but i have no idea how to figure it out, and i have no idea how to ever figure it out at the table......

how big does the pot have to be to justify putting in one more big bet in order to theoretically buy two more outs? also, how likely do you have to estimate you will win if you hit one of those two outs? does this make up for lost value from calls behind you? does this make up for putting in additional money without an equity edge? etc.

aseem

Folding AK, AT, K3, K5, and K9 would be nice. These hands might fold to a raise if they're out there. Any other hand that needs a king will call 2 bets.

I think the chances that these hands are out there + the chances that they fold for two bets + the chances that the king comes on the river that would have won it for you if they folded is pretty damn small. I don't think it's worth investing a raise here.

then why do we raise the flop with a nut flush draw + one overcard in a big pot? you can apply the same reasoning... the chances that bad hands are out there + the chances that they'll fold for two bets + the chances that said overcard comes on the river = pretty small.

obviously, there needs to be some balance between this small chance and the size of the pot. the smaller the pot, the bigger this chance/probability has to be, and the bigger the pot, the smaller this chance/probability can be.

this is a damn big pot, but is it big enough?

how do we figure it out?

aseem

Because cleaning up overcards out on the flop increases your equity more than cleaning them up on the turn. Also, raising on the flop with a flush + overcard is good in two ways:
1) If people fold, your overcard outs are more likely to be good, so your equity drastically increases
2) If people call, it's good too. Even without your overcard being worth anything, you still make money if at least two people call.

So on the flop, it doesn't matter how many people call/fold, raising is always good. Your equity is much lower on the turn.



This is a good point. I think it's very hard to determine. Generally, since the bets are larger on the turn, it is not worth usually worth it since the pot is usually not as big in relation to the bet size. Conversely, if the pot is big on the turn, it is unlikely that top pair will be good enough to win, so raising to clean up overcard outs is futile.

My point is, that I believe the flop is usually the best time to clean up outs. Sometimes the pot will be too large too clean up outs on the flop, and it is much easier to drive people out with a raise on the turn. The problem is, that your equity has usually decreased on the turn. For this reason, I think it's hard to find instances where raising the turn to clean up outs is correct.

Interestingly enough, I read a thread on 2+2 today where the guy did raise to clean up outs on the turn (it wasn't overcards). You can find it here:

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&fpart=all&vc=1



I really don't know a good way to figure it out using numbers. There are so many other factors that come into play. I think for the most part, if you have to play it by intuition. This is why I can't say for sure whether raising in the above situation is correct. My intuition tells me no - but we all know how counter-intuitive this game can be.

screech, thanks for the response. that was an excellent, high-content post.

as for the 2+2 thread, i waded through a lot of the "old bag" bickering, thanks for the link.

just a point of note:

sthief has the same number of outs on the turn (at full estimation) that i do.

he has 4 sixes + 3 aces + 2 twos + 3 fives = 12.

i have 9 clubs + 3 kings = 12.

maybe you convinced me, but the more i think about it, the more i don't like sthief's raise, which in turn means the more i can see raising being incorrect in this hand.

it goes without saying, though, that game conditions and player tendencies of my opponents affect everything, of course.

aseem