Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: screech is MP3 with [6h], [6s]. CO posts a blind of $2.
5 folds, screech calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) [3c], [8c], [Ts] (2 players)
screech checks, Button bets, screech calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) [7d] (2 players)
screech checks, Button bets, screech calls.

River: (7.25 BB) [Jc] (2 players)
screech checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

How'd I do?

I'd lead out the flop since I was the pre flop raiser and see what the BB does from there.

bet/call flop.

If he just calls flop bet out on the turn then re evaluate after that.

i like the way you played this hand.

Why?

i don't like this at all.

c/r the flop. call a 3-bet and fold the turn ui.

Button had the lead going into the flop. He 3-bet PF.



What is button 3-betting PF with that he's not raising with on the flop? Even if he just calls the flop, he could be waiting for the turn to pop it with an overpair. Leading the flop does not give me any info IMO. It just makes it more expensive and more difficult to play the hand.





I like the way you think. :-)

Why bloat the pot with a hand that's likely to be second best, with very little chance to improve?

Why call down with aforementioned hand?

I'm not always calling down with this hand. In fact, I usually fold the turn if button bets again.

What info does checking the flop give you?

He could have an overpair or just making a continuation bet with AK or so.

Don't you think if you bet/call or even 3 bet the flop you would be able to find where you are in the hand?

I could be totally off base, just my two cents.

Saying what you do usually doesn't answer why you were going to call down in this instance. Have reasons for what you do.

I cr/fold the flop in some cases. Fold it to one bet others.

The same as any other line, but at a cheaper price.



That's my point - I don't.



I was hoping someone else might try to give reasons as to why check/calling this flop is much better than check/raising or bet/calling. Sorry if it seemed like I was just going in circles.

First, this is a very good flop for me - no ace, no king. If an ace or king hit the flop, my hand would quickly find the muck. Since they never hit the flop, I am now ahead of two of my opponents likely 3-betting hands (AK/AQs). Also, note there is only 1 card above 9. This means that my outs to a set are more likely to be clean.

I won't go through the math right now, but if we give my opponent a normal 3-betting range (AA-99, AK, AQs), he will have AK/AQs in these situations between 35-40% of the time. This makes folding quite wrong.

I really don't see any reason to check/raise, or bet/call this flop. As I've stated above, I really don't think bet/call gives us any information about our opponents hand. It just put more money in the pot as a probable second best hand. Same goes for the check/raise. If we get 3-bet, we've just put in 1.5BB to find out that our opponent more than likely has us beat (many opponents will 3-bet with AK in position here). We could see the river card for the same price (although it is usually incorrect to do so).
If he simply calls the check/raise, that still means nothing. I know a lot of opponents who will call a check/raise with an overpair, so that they can pop in on the turn.

Either way, I think that both check/raise and bet/call lines are spewing in this situation.

So that leaves us with a call.

After I called, I was hoping for one of 3 things to happen on the turn:
1) I don't improve, but my opponent checks AK/AQs behind.
2) I improve to a set.
3) I pick up some kind of draw that would give me the odds to continue.

Unfortunately, neither 1 nor 2 happened. If my opponent bet, there was still a chance he had AK/AQs, but that chance had decreased enough to make calling down unprofitable (I would have to win at showdown a little over 20% of the time, given my effective odds).

If I never picked up an inside straight draw, I would have folded right there. Getting 6.25:1 to hit a 6 outer was more than enough for me to continue.

On the river, I would have probably folded to a bet, since all but the best players will bet AK as a bluff/for value here.

so you'd rather spend 2.5 bb by calling down and finding out your beaten?

i'd rather stick a hot poker (pun) in my ass then call down on this kind of hand.

I like.

There's enough already in the pot to call down.
But you aren't ahead often enough to bet out and risk a raise.

Why bet at all?
Do you think yuo get 3SB's of info from this line?

Just check/fold then.


I like the way OP played

I'd still like to hear other opinions on this. I still hate this hand.

I don't like it either.

[quote]so you'd rather spend 2.5 bb by calling down and finding out your beaten?
[/quote]

I'm never calling this hand down UI. Im spending 0.5bb to see the turn. If he bets, I'm releasing my hand UI. But I picked up a straight draw, and that allowed me to continue. If he bet on the river, I'm folding UI. This costs the same (and sometimes less) as your check/raise/call flop-fold turn line. It costs less than the check/raise flop-bet/fold turn line. And it costs less than the bet/call-fold line.

The only reason I make this play is because of the chance that villian checks behind on the turn. This chance translates into outs, which may/or may not make it correct for me to peel. Right now, I have 2 outs. I'm getting 9.5:1 to peel, so I need about 2 more outs to make this call correct.

Thes other 2 outs come from the probability he has AK/AQs, multiplied by the probability he checks the turn with either of these two hands.

There are 20 combinations of AK/AQs, and 33 combos of AA-99. Therefore, the chance he has AK/AQs is about 38% (even more if we increase his 3 betting range to include 88 and all AQ).

So if my opponent checks behind roughly 11% of the time, that gives me roughly 2 more outs. (38% x 11% ~ 4.5% --> 4.5% x 45 = 2 outs)

You can expect a typical opponent to check much more often than that.

Another point to note is that if your opponent does check the turn after a blank falls, you can confidently value bet the river, as long as an A/K/Q does not fall.

I've recently began making this play after reading a great 2+2 post by Nate tha Great which discusses a somewhat similar situation:

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&fpart=all&vc=1

[/quote]

why wouldnt you show this down UI?

I don't mind this at all. I try this stuff all the time (usually with bad results)... 8)

This isn't entirely true either. It depends on how often I think my opponent will bet AK/AQs UI on the turn. This assumes my opponent will rarely (<10%) bet AK/AQs on the river UI, so we can safely fold the river if he bets. This is the case against all but the most aggressive opponents.

So let's look at some different scenarios where our opponents sometimes bet the turn with AK/AQs UI, but rarely bet the river with these hands:

Case 1 - Opponent bets turn UI 100% of the time

In this situation, if my opponent will always bet AK/AQs UI on the turn, calling is correct. Even though I don't get those chances that he checks behind outs discussed in my previous post, I will be risking 1.5BB to win 5.75BB. I would be getting 3.83:1 on my money. I would have to win at showdown ~ 26% of the time. This is pretty thin in we factor in the chances that he improves by the river and I don't. In fact, in this case, I will only win at showdown ~ 16% of the time, so I should fold.

Case 2 - Opponent bets turn UI 90% of the time

This is a bit more complicated. Since he checks behind UI 10% of the time on the turn, I pick up ~ 1.7 outs on the flop (38% x 10% x 45 unseen cards = 1.7 outs). So my flop call is close. On the turn there is a 34.2% (38% x 90%) chance that I'm ahead, so I should call since the pot is offering 6.25:1. The flop call is very close though. If I call the flop, I have to call the turn. I would think this is a bit below the break even point for calling the flop. If my opponent bets the turn with AK/AQs UI > 90% of the time, I should fold the flop. If not, I should call the flop, and probably call the turn.

Case 3 - Opponent bets turn UI 15% of the time

This is the case where my opponent will bet AK/AQs on the turn UI just often enough for me to profitably call. I'm getting 1:6.25 on my call. Therefore, I have to win at showdown about 13% of the time to make calling profitable. My opponent has about 6 outs to improve if he's behind. So he'll win 12% of the time he's behind multiplied by the 15% of the time's he actually is behind = 1.8%. Subtract the 1.8% from the 15% and I win at showdown about 13% of the time. Therefore, if my opponent will check behind on the turn with UI AK/AQs more than 85% of the time, I should check/fold the turn.


So what does all this babble mean?

Against extremely aggressive opponents, I should just fold on the flop.
Against opponents that play passively after the flop, I should call the flop, and check/fold the turn.
Against average opponents, I should call the flop, call the turn, and fold the river.

Against most opponents, I think we can get to the river UI, and hope they check behind. It is my experience that when they bet on the river, it's almost always not AK/AQs, and we can safely throw our hand away given the pot odds.

What do you think of this?