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Full Version: set of jacks: bet/call river or check behind? (lhe)
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > No Limit Texas Hold'em Cash Games
Sysvr4
(9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with [Js], [Jd].
2 folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) [Jc], [Ah], [Qd] (5 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) [6h] (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) [Tc] (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, Hero calls

When he checked on the river I actually told myself "bet/fold" but I don't think that's right. This is bet/call right? Anybody check behind here?

Jeff
looshle
QUOTE (Sysvr4)
(9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with [Js], [Jd].    
2 folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) [Jc], [Ah], [Qd] (5 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) [6h] (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) [Tc] (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, Hero calls

When he checked on the river I actually told myself "bet/fold" but I don't think that's right.  This is bet/call right?  Anybody check behind here?

Jeff


I'd check it behind him,
screech
The way the hand played out, I think villians likely hands in order are:

KQ ~ 45%
AK ~ 20%
AJ ~ 15%
TT ~ 10%
AQ ~ 10%

These numbers are very conservative IMO.
In reality, I think he has KQ/AK closer to 75% of the time.
Just check behind.

If you do bet, and are raised, it is read dependent. I probably bet/call agianst all but the most passive/predictable opponents.
Rocketwadster
Barring any reads on my opponent, I would check the river here. How the hand played out, a very likely holding for you opponent contains the king. :cry:
Abbaddabba
I can't imagine folding it.

At low stake games, it may often be someone who made their second pair.

I'd probably bet/call.

Checking behind isn't a terrible option though.


QUOTE
The way the hand played out, I think villians likely hands in order are:

KQ ~ 45%
AK ~ 20%
AJ ~ 15%
TT ~ 10%
AQ ~ 10%

These numbers are very conservative IMO.
In reality, I think he has KQ/AK closer to 75% of the time.


Are you assigning those probabilities WITH the information of the checkraise or without?
richgambler
IMO this is an easy check....you can only get raised here.....absolutely no value in betting.....that is an awful bet.....besides the river you played the hand correctly
Abbaddabba
Who's to say you can only get raised here?

He could easily get a worse hand to call, and sometimes even raised by a worse hand.
Rocketwadster
QUOTE (Abbaddabba)
Who's to say you can only get raised here?

He could easily get a worse  hand to call, and sometimes even raised by a worse hand.


What hands are going to call a bet on the river there? i just don't see two pair calling us on the river (if there is two pair out there). Even if we do have the best hand, a bet will not win any more money IMO. It is a useless bet with what has now become a medium-weak hand, as it is now neither a value bet nor a bluff. It's what guys like Jesus call the worst play in poker.
Sysvr4
QUOTE (richgambler)
IMO this is an easy check....you can only get raised here.....absolutely no value in betting.....that is an awful bet.....besides the river you played the hand correctly


I don't think it's awful, but I don't think it's good either. I think my including the villain's raise here is skewing some opinions on this hand.

I suppose it's bad in that I'm risking 2 bets to win 1 if a better hand raises. Then again, the way it played out the guy may very well call with a lesser hand.

This is one of those cases where I wish I was OOP and I'd check/call. That alone prolly means I shoulda checked.

Jeff
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