akishore
Monday, August 29th, 2005, 11:04 AM
you. can't. protect. against. flush. draws.
just pointing that out, it gets tiring to hear.
okay, so i'm going to take a few examples.
similar preflop action in each example.
let's say you have 8-7 suited. flop comes Q-8-7. betting out here is clearly better.
let's say you have 3-3. flop comes K-7-3. check/raising is clearly better (maybe even check/calling, but that's besides the point).
let's say you have 8-7 suited. flop comes 7-6-5. now the line is closer, but i think betting out is better than check/raising because you can really improve your winning chances if a 4-x or 9-x folds or if the preflop raiser is aggressive and you're in the lead heads-up against A-K but behind if another person stays in, etc. but, checkraising can be better if you know the preflop raiser has a big pair (e.g. low PFR%) or if you know that the other two guys in the hands aren't donks with 9-x or 4-x and they have big broadway hands too. again, this is close.
now, in your example, you have top two pair, but there is one key point:
your top two pair is made pu of broadway cards. this inherently means that your hand is vulnerable to a broadway straight draw.
betting out, having the preflop raiser raise and make AK/AQ/KQ face two cold now protects your hand against those gutshot draws.
OTOH, the pot isn't really HUGE yet, so you may prefer to build it up by check/CALLING and then betting out on a brick turn (if you again know that the preflop raiser will now raise your turn bet if no one shows aggression on the flop, which is the case against aggressive players... if the preflop raiser is passive, it becomes an even closer decision yet).
okay, before i continue, i want to recount a hand that was in last month's 2+2 internet magazine. it was one of the "on the edge" series articles by barron vangor toth.
he was playing in an extremely loose/passive game with a 2+2'er on his LEFT. the game had two classic conditions:
1. no one respect preflop and flop raises (when the bets were small).
2. everyone respected turn and river raises (when the bets were big).
he had J

9

under the gun and limped. the 2+2'er on his left raised, three people cold-called, the blinds called and he called. seven people for two small bets each.
the flop came J

10

9

. when the blinds checked, for various reasons, he decided to check/call (i agree with his reasons wholeheartedly and you can read about them in detail in the article). the 2+2'er bet, everyone called, and he called. seven people to the turn for 1.5 big bets each for a pot of 10.5 big bets.
the turn came a 5

. when the blinds checked, he now decided he had built up the pot with a strong hand, but now that the pot was big, he needed to protect his hand (NOT against flush draws, but against weak straight draws, lower pairs with an overcard, against an overpair like the 2+2 had, etc.) and he knew that by betting here, the 2+2'er would raise, so this would be an effective way of protecting his hand.
so, he bet, the 2+2'er raised, everyone folded to him, he called, and he check/raised a brick river and took down a nice pot against the 2+2'ers pocket kings.
here's the link:
http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue7/...7/Toth0705.html
so how do i think this applies in this hand?
1. notice that the pot isn't tremendous. thus, you might not want to bet and force the field to call two cold YET.
2. how aggressive/passive is the preflop raiser? if he's aggressive (which it looks like he is...), a
check/call-bet line would be very effective on brick turns. if he's passive, you're not going to be able to protect your hand later, so leading out might be better so that you can get it heads-up and just get sheer value from him heads-up.
3. the point is that your hand is vulnerable when you're up against gutshots and overpairs and whatnot. if you had bottom two pair or even top pair, betting out becomes correct much more clearly, since your hand is more vulnerable. if you have a set on a ragged board, betting out becomes wrong much more clearly since your hand isn't that vulnerable for the pot size. this is closer, but i'd say your hand is still pretty vulnerable.
all in all, i think it's a pretty close decision. my final conclusion:
- if he's aggressive, check/call-bet.
- if he's passive, bet out right away since this might be the only time he raises. while the pot isn't huge, it's on the big side and getting it heads-up and getting value out of him, while not as attractive as having everyone call the flop and fold on the turn to two cold, is certainly better than check/raising this, having him slow down and being able to make the field face only one on the turn.
aseem