PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with [9c], [9s].
UTG calls, MP raises, HERO ???


MP- 59/23/1 (40 hands)

Button - 20/6/2.7 (40 hands)

I'd probably call, then call if someone caps.

Capping it might cause UTG or MP to fold, seriously hurting the value of your bet...calling might bring them along....your three bets or 4 bets are worth it if everyone is in for the ride, but probably not if you end up heads up.

...Folds. If, by some miracle, you have a better hand than the button, you still need to dodge any Ace and/or any two broadway on the flop (or flop a set).

Ok I'm not Poker Tracker enabled, but an agression being 1 (MP) means he's somewhat passive right? So it's probable that he's raising with a big pair?

Edit: Eh I didn't notice that it was just a sample of 40 hands

VPIP/preflopraise%/postflop aggression factor

so the preflopraise % is what we're looking at here.

Actually, I can dig up a preflop reraise % number for him, that's what I should've done

And I use pokeroffice's live tracker, I just set my stats to the same default stats that poker tracker uses as that's the most common, and three best to use.

You're playing to flop a set here...no set, no bet.

are you kidding?

hero folds in a heartbeat.

button raises 6% of his hands, that means he three-bets even less. i'd be surprised if button three-bet with anything worse than AK or QQ. heck, i might even be surprised if button three-bet with AK at all.

you DON'T have the implied odds to chase a set if you know you're up against a bigger pair.

aseem

That's what i did

I frown because button three bet with 88 and the flop came 9 high.

What I failed to take into account is button's willingness to isolate the maniac that was very aggressive preflop.

With my read at the time, that's why I made the fold. But as the table played out even longer, the button villian was constantly isolating the maniac....

Yeah, but what if button has these stats on MP and is 3-betting a little light this time and MP doesn't really have a hand? Clearly, if this is the case, we are probably correct to raise :-)

Oops, I thought that 1 was a general aggression number. Didn't know what the 23 was until now.

Ok next stop, poker source online so I can get this magical thing called Poker Tracker. I swear I'll have it soon...

Sure you do...if you're comfortable with concluding that UTG and MP are going to call too...if not, then you're right, absolutely....this only works if UTG and MP (or BB) come along.

But if you call the 3-bet and the others call, you're fine.

Let's say you call, BB folds, and UTG calls 2 more bets and MP calls one more.

If you hit your set, with three callers you'll easily make up 6 Big Bets...there's a good chance you'll make up half of that on the flop alone.

If it ends up being capped then even better. ...if BB goes for the ride, even better.

I think you make a profit calling here in the long run, even when you know you're up against a higher pair.

fold.
You'll need to win an 18 BB pot to justify this call, right?

Yeah sitting to the left of a maniac is almost like printing money. Most of the low limit players I see tend to cower in the face of a maniac. But I've found that if you're sitting on their left and pick your spots it's the perfect place to be. So many people will (usually correctly) fold facing 2 that would call 1. It's almost like getting to chose if people call or fold to your raise.

Still I'm folding this in an instant. I don't think enough low limit types are adaptable enough to use the maniac to their advantage like this.

You didn't have that information at the time. Now that you do, you can cap to isolate the maniac yourself, if you feel like gambooooling.

How do you figure?

You're putting in 1.25 BB to call here because you're the small blind.

You're 8.3 to 1 to hit your set on the flop.

You're roughly 4.5 to 1 to beat a higher pair by the river.

Based on your need to hit the set on the flop (or perhaps 678 rainbow), I see you need to win 11 BB to justify the call....and there's already 3 BB in there, and, hopefully, 1.5 more if the other two call.


But, my math might be out to lunch and somewhere in left field, so please, educate me if I'm wrong.

It's never right to call 3 cold here unless there are 5 people allready in for 2 when it gets three-bet.

You need to make 12BB here when you win TO BREAK EVEN.

You'll make a second best hand a lot of times when you hit your set here.

This is a massive leak if you're calling here.

Maybe, maybe, maybe, on the button with at least 4 people likely to call the three.

Even then it's light.

Most preflop decisions are close enough not to matter, this one isn't.

Good luck.