Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: econ_tim is Button with [7d], [5d]. CO posts a blind of $1.50.
2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) [Ad], [8c], [9d] (6 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, econ_tim calls.

Turn: (9 BB) [Qh] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP3 calls, econ_tim calls.

River: (12 BB) [3s] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP3 calls, econ_tim folds.

Final Pot: 14 BB

My question is should I raise preflop? There are four limpers ahead of me and I have a hand that does well multiway.

If you raise, what is your range of raising hands? All suited connectors (zero and one-gap)? Other hands?

I would cap the flop.

Unless someone has a set or a higher flush draw, your equity is around 45%. Cap it.




Sure, your hand does well multiway, but all suited connectors aren't created equally.
57s is different then a hand like T9s. Obviously, your chances of spiking a pair and winning are much lower. While it is rare that you'll spike a pair with T9s and win, it happens enough to increase its equity compared to 57s.
Also, the gap is a bit of a problem. Less straights that can be made = less chance to win.
Raising with 76s is marginal at best. I wouldn't raise with 65s. Don't raise with 75s.

Generally I dont like raising suited connectors on the button unless it's T9-JQ s. And yes I would cap the flop here, your equity is high, you are probably just about even money to win the hand. capping it might get you a free card on the river if you miss too,

I would cap the flop.


Why, it's not for value here, three handed. Just to spew some chips for no reason? Because you saw someone do it once into 6 callers? Are you looking to clean up your 7 and 5 outs with the raise?

WHY???

Seemed like it would be for value having 12 outs in this spot.

But, with only two players left to call that final bet on flop, for that one extra bet, you are getting two more out of it. So 2-1 on that bet. I really don't know how to calculate if that final bet is for value here, so someone teach me something....

I act without thinking

Then again, if you don't cap it. MP1 has every reason to lead out again on turn, so if you hit your straight outs there, you'll get the raise in on the turn and trap both opponents for two more big bets. Whereas if you cap the flop, there's no guarentee he won't lead out again on turn, when you don't hit, so you really aren't buying a free card by capping.

Wow, I'm sure this whole response by me seems random.

I guess my question is, with 12 outs against two opponents left, would your cap bet be for value? I would seem to think it is, but what's the math on that?

Because there's aout a 25-50% chance he gets to see the river for free?

I guess my question is, with 12 outs against two opponents left, would your cap bet be for value? I would seem to think it is, but what's the math on that?

Heads up I wouldnt do it without position,but with 3 or more people, your equity is high enough to raise for value.

Here's my thoughts on the flop. Raising is clearly for value since 5 other people are in.

But MP3 calls 2 bets back to him (my raise and MP1's reraise) so I'm discounting my flush outs a little since he could be drawing to a higher flush.

Blink20 was asking about calculating your equity on the flop.

The chance you'll hit by the river is [1 -( (47 - outs)/47)((46 - outs)/46)].

If I count all 12 outs as clean, this is 43.4%

If I discount my flush outs by 1/3rd, it becomes a marginal value bet.

If I discount the outs any further, then capping vs two players is -EV.

If they are clean outs, you have 45% of winning.
I would think it's for value to cap.
Even 9 outs give you a 35% chance
....well except for the redraw thingy,...but still seems like a good cap

But I trust Smash more.
Wondering why he disagrees.

Warning: this post is long and contains alot of numbers. Skip to the end if you hate math.

I would think Smash is factoring in the chances that we are against a set/higher flush draw. The chances of this are higher than usual because of the 3-bet flop. If all our outs are clean, we have 12 outs. That means our equity is 45%.

(12/47) + (35/47)(12/46) = 45%

If this is the case, capping would be profitable, since we are putting 33% of the money into the flop with a 45% chance of winning the hand.

Now suppose we are up against a set. They have 7 outs to improve by the turn. If they don't improve on the turn, they have 10 outs to improve on the river.

(7/47) + (40/47)(10/46) = 33%

Therefore, of the 45% of the time we make a flush, our opponent will make a full house 33% of the time. This reduces our chances of winning a showdown by ~ 15% (0.45 x 0.33), so our equity decreases to about 30%.

Our equity also decreases if our opponent holds an two pair, because he has outs to beat us even if we make our flush. However, in the case of two pair, our opponent only has 4 outs, so our equity will still be high enough to make a cap worthwhile.

If there is a pair of aces, and a higher flush draw out, our equity drops to below 10%. We only have 3 outs against a made hand and one that will come in 29% of the time.

All in all, it comes down to our opponents. If MP1 is a player that will only 3-bet this flop with a set, our cap is not for value. If MP1 will 3-bet with two pair or better, our raise is for value as long as our other opponent does not have a higher flush draw. So really, all we have to worry about here is the higher flush draw, as long as MP1 is capable of occassionally 3-betting with two pair.

There is a 23.5% chance of being dealt two suited cards and about a 1% chance that someone else is dealt two of the same suit. Let's assume that if someone else is dealt two diamonds, they will beat your flush. Given the way MP3 has played his hand, I would raise the odds that he's on a flush draw to about 8%. That's worth about 2 outs. Let's also assume MP1 has about a 30% chance of having a set here. So 30% of the time your equity decreases 15%, which is about 4%. That is equal to about another out.

Given these assumptions, you can reasonably assume you have 9 outs. your equity is 35% with 9 outs, and therefore a cap will be valuable (you may not want to push this edge because your equity will change drastically on the next street).

The above math is rough at best. It is just to show how marginal and read dependent this situation is. If you think I'm being to generous by assigning us with 9 real outs, then a fold is clearly in order. If you think the chances your opponent has a set are much less than 30% given the range of 3-betting hands, this turns into a clear raise.

Thank you.