$5/$10 omaha hi/lo

i'm SB with K K J 3 .
three limpers, next guy raises all-in for $6 and change, LP cold-calls, i cold-call from the small blind (kinda loose, but not horrible, right?), BB folds, first limper calls, second limper raises (donkey), everyone calls.

(11 SB main, 5 SB side) 4 4 4
i BET, ...

is this a nice bet?

not completely sure what my plan was. if the limp-reraising donkey raised me, i was probably going to three-bet him if everyone else folded.

if someone else just flat-called, i was going to assume a backdoor low draw and bet on the turn and probably fold to a raise.

what do you think?

aseem

meh.

I'm not sure I pay off quads here. If this was an 888 flop I'd be a lot happier betting the 3rd nuts.

The 4 is a good card here methinks (as opposed to all aces, twos or threes). 6 people in the pot though, so I would be very leery in banking on none of them having a 4. Pocket aces is a very definate possibility also, so your kings blow IMO. Check/fold 8)

I think so too.

The probability of none of the 6 players holding a 4 is very slim.


The probability of one player not holding a 4 is 0.72

48 47 46 45
___ x ___ x ____ x _____ ~= 0.72
52 51 50 49

The probability of none of the 6 players holding a 4 is 0.14

0.72^6 ~= 0.14

I think it's a bad bet.

if the chances no one has a 4 is 0.14 or 1/7, isn't this is a good bet/bluff if my bet odds on the pot are 16-to-1?

aseem

what are you going to do if called here? or raised? if called and bet into on the turn to a card lower than a king? same with the river? seems like you will have many tough decisions on later streets, and will never realyl know wehre you stand until the showdown. :?

Easy check/fold IMO. 8)

Yeah, First of all I saw only 5SB on the flop and thought it was the main pot. I didn't see the 11 SB as the main.

But even with that, I will be less inclined to start the action. It's quite likely someone holding A4.

Now I am talking to myself, on the other hand is it worth it to make one bet here given that 5SB side pot and 11 SB in the main?

If I would try one bet here, then what if I get called? That means someone could have got pairs or the four, and I am pretty sure the one who's got the four would not raise me on the flop.

Now if the turn drops a low card, that makes the caller with a pair and low draws more likely to call or even raise me out of the pot.

So my position makes me difficult to play.

I am not good at limit, but I would not bet here on the flop.

Now how about just check it, if someone bets then I raise? Is it worth it?

I would be out to protect against backdoor low draws, but with that many callers, you can't get all of them. Still, I think it's better to bet the flop and lose a SB to quads than let lows draw for free. If the turn bricks, I'm checking.

you won't lose a SB to quads, as they will make you pay on the turn and/or river to see the quads. 8)

I was just talking about losing an extra SB on the flop by betting instead of checking if you've decided to call down.

I'd say there's just over 60% someone has quads or AA, but even with a bet on every street, I think the pot odds are worth it. There's also a possibility of a backdoor low draw, which I'll estimate comes around 30% of the time. The current pot is ~6BB, I think you'll pay 3BB on average to see the showdown. Obviously the math is pretty fuzzy, but even if you automatically fold when the backdoor low comes, you'll have around 25% equity, which is just right if you get only one caller. More than one person might comes along or you might salvage some equity when the low comes, so I think it makes it more than correct to see a showdown.

If things get crazy, though, like a raise and a reraise (esp from the 2nd limper), it's an obvious fold.

[edit: I thought the pot was 11SB, not 16SB. I'm definitely calling down unless there are two jammers]