Bagtatta
Saturday, August 13th, 2005, 10:24 AM
Final six of a 27 person S&G (5 are cash), I get KK under the gun with 100-200 blinds and make it $800 to go. Next player calls and it gets around to the chip lead on the button, who makes it $1400.
I raise all in for $4,000 more and both call. The first caller (short stack) shows AQos and the chip lead shows Aces.
I know there's no way I was ever going to fold Kings in this position but a min raise always seems to be the tip-off at these levels..
Was pushing all in maybe the wrong decision at this point? I think my question is results oriented, but I was bothered by it.
goose
Saturday, August 13th, 2005, 10:35 AM
Absolutely nothing wrong with your play. The call by UTG+1 indicated he had exactly what he showed - a strong but not superior hand, most likely in the A-10 to A-k suited range, or JJ/1010, maybe even KQs. Up against the chip leader, on the button, he can make that raise (and get +EV from it) with a ton of hands... it depends on your read, but usually you can give him credit for 10Js or something similar in that position. Isolating him HU by pushing all in is your best option (in my opinion), and if you get a call from the UTG+1, that's alright, because you're reasonably sure you're going in as the favourite. Just bad luck you ran into rockets, I'm losing money 9/10 in that situation.
TruePoker
Saturday, August 13th, 2005, 10:36 AM
losing money 9/10 ???????????? Dont you win 20% of the time though :S
Someone needs to learn their odds !!!!
goose
Saturday, August 13th, 2005, 10:49 AM
I ran the hand through the calculator, and here's how you sit in a few of the likely situations that hand led you to believe you would be in:
UTG+1 has AhQh - 28
Button has 10dJd - 20
Hero has KcKs - 52
UTG+1 has QdQc - 10
Button has AhQh - 29
Hero has KcKs - 61
UTG+1 has QdQh - 15
Button has JcJs - 18
Hero has KcKs - 67
As you can see, you're going in as a coinflip to triple-up at minimum (in that stage of the tourney, I'd take those odds in a second), and go in as a fairly dominate favourite if you're up against 2 other pairs.
Of course, the only situation that matters is listed below, but that's just plain bad luck.
Button AA - 71
Hero KK - 18
UTG+1 AQ -11
goose
Saturday, August 13th, 2005, 10:51 AM
QUOTE (TruePoker)
losing money 9/10 ???????????? Dont you win 20% of the time though :S
Someone needs to learn their odds !!!!
I meant it in the figuritive way, wasn't thinking about the actual flop odds etc.... and if you're going to critique a post, critique a part that actually matters.
wilkinru
Saturday, August 13th, 2005, 11:18 AM
QUOTE (goose)
Of course, the only situation that matters is listed below, but that's just plain bad luck.
Button AA - 71
Hero KK - 18
UTG+1 AQ -11
11% AQ is going to win?
even suited im getting less than 10% of the time
offsuit its closer to 5% of the time to win.
AA wins closer to 75% of the time with AQ offsuit.
Maybe with proper trickery with suits you can get to yours, but the OP did say AQo.
goose
Saturday, August 13th, 2005, 11:22 AM
sorry, i didnt see it was AQos... but those figures I pulled (rounded) off of cardplayer's calculator... I don't really care to bicker over a couple of percentages, the idea gets across.
wilkinru
Monday, August 15th, 2005, 12:07 AM
i fully understand, at the same time i think it is importat to show how totally screwed AQo is...
6% difference is a fair amount.
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