im not supposed to talk about hands cause im gettin staked to play in this game, but i think i could use a little help on a few hands, this bein one of em.

Also, "technically" I should be playing 3/6 still, but I sit at 5/10 occassionally for fun, and I will leave if I suffer even the least bit of a hit.

I think the table was 7 handed when this hand went down. The tables where I play have constantly rotating players, which can get annoying with posted blinds and such.

Absolute gets the 9:spade: 8:spade: on the button.

Three limpers to me, I raise, BB and limpers call.

(10.4 SB or somethin like that in the pot goin to the flop!)
flop comes 56T rainbow with one spade.

check, bet, call, call, Absolute calls, fold.

(7.2 BB or somethin to the turn with four playas)
turn brings the 3

bet, raise, 3-bet, Absolute folds


Donkey fold or amazing awesome incredible laydown?

I didn't include reads because the table was currently in ferris wheel mode.

Tables here are generally LAP, just like I like em.

Seems like an easy laydown to me. Nice try though with the button raise there, I like it. 8)

i will raise 98s on the button with a lot of limpers behind me every day of the week.

I agree completely...there have been a couple of other posts lately where I have advocated similar plays with hands that play well multi-way. 8)

i'm not sure i like the fold.

the 7 gives you the definite nuts, that's three outs for non-spade 7's.

spades give you the flush, but two of them pair the board, and there's a small chance (i think it's very small) that you're up against one higher flush draw, so probably give yourself 6 partial outs for the spade.

with 9 outs, i don't think this is a terrible cold-call.

you're getting 16-to-3 immediate, and if the bettor and raiser both just call, that'll be 19-to-3, great overlay.

even if it gets capped, you'll have 19-to-4, which is still good enough to chase. add in implied odds on the river and i think you have a very fair overlay.

i think this is a cold-call as long as you can fold a flush on a paired board against a bet and a raise on the river.

aseem

What in the world is happening on that turn if not a flush draw/made straight? Sure, the three looks harmless by itself, so it must fit into a hand somehow, with the flush being the most logical choice.

Ten-6, ten-5, ten-3 - doesnt make sense (unless the BB got lucky)
6-5, 6-3 - only the 6-5 makes sense, but only from UTG (or whatever position that first limper was in)
5-3 - only from BB.
2-4, 4-7 (the made straight's) - only from BB
A set of threes - not likely.
A set of 5's, 6's, or tens - tens MAY have raised pre-flop (unless in BB, but BB bet out on the flop, where most players would check hoping to raise with a set). The others make sense.

Currently, we have nothing but a draw. The three 7's are our only pure outs IMO, as at least one of our opponents appears to be on the flush draw. Fairly easy fold IMO. :?

i think this is where i wanted this thread to go...

i am likely drawing to the best hand.

our considerations should be

1. What do my opponents likely hold betting this way?
2. What are my odds to hit?
3. How great are my implied odds when I do it?

What about reverse implied odds here?
How likely is a better flush draw?

Someone check my math on this, but I think it's right, or at least pretty close. With two spades in your hand and two on the board, there are 8+7+6+5+4 = 30 better two card spade holdings than yours.

There are 1035 ways to pair 2 cards from the 46 unknown in the deck leaving us with 30/1035 or about a 3% chance someone holds a better two flush than we do.

This, IMO, isn't high enough a probability to concern ourselves. I believe we're much more likely to be up against at least one set, meaning you need to discount some of your spade outs.

Jeff

meh, I'm folding for three cold there. 13-3 doesn't really work for me when I'm basically 4-1 to make my draws(I'm discounting some spades).

I agree with akishore, I think this should be a call -

In the worst possible case, the raiser caps, the other two fold, and you get a total of 15-4 on the call. With seven spades that don't pair the board, plus three additional sevens, that's ten outs, so 3.6-1 (or 14.4-4). So the odds are there.

It seems unlikely that your flush is no good, given the betting and that there weren't two spades on the flop. I've got to think you'll easily make more in implied odds from the times your flush hits and is good than you'll lose that occasional time that it hits and isn't good.

If the board pairs, your flush is most likely not good. You're drawing to a 9 high flush, which means you have a good chance of rivering an underflush and losing a coupleb ets or so especially if the board doesnt pair. A 7 is the only card you can really hope to see and I don't think cold calling 3 big bets to see it is the right play.

I may be wrong though, cause I'm not that good at limit.

aseem is right, methinks, but mostly because of this last point. if you don't think you can fold a flush to two villians that probably beat you on a paired board, then get out. if you can, then call. i sincerely doubt the villians are folding on the river.

and should you hit your seven, you're gonna be quite rich. this is also important.

also, not a donkish fold. it's quite close. this isn't a huge mistake either way, imho.

i honestly think a fold here is being a little weak/tight.

the chances of being up against a higher flush draw is very slim, especially given the action. i honestly think that fearing a higher flush draw is similar to fearing a higher set in some situations.

consider that the flop action was bet/call/call/call, whereas the turn is suddenly bet/raise/three-bet. the latter two opponents probably don't have a flush draw (unless they flopped a pair and now turned a flush draw, and even that's assuming a lot given that you say the table is TA-P or passive postflop).

even your immediate pot odds here are good enough to chase a 9-outter (i say 9 because of my earlier estimation: 6 flush outs and 3 sevens). add in the likelihood that the other two people will just call, and your effective odds are wonderful. even if it gets capped four-way, your effective odds are still about break-even.

so, at WORST, your pot odds are break-even, whereas in some cases you will have a nice overlay.

now add in implied odds on the river, and i think this is a profitable cold-call.

to answer absolute's questions:

1. your opponents probably hold two pair hands, and there might be a set or straight in there. the bettor can have as bad as just top pair, so the possibilities are: pair vs two pair vs straight, pair vs top pair vs set, two pair vs two pair vs straight, etc.

2. like i said, 9 outs, so 20% or 4-to-1.

3. your implied odds are pretty decent here, ESPECIALLY when you hit your gutshot (the nuts). think about how disguised it is and how much a set will pay you off.

4. your reverse implied odds aren't too bad if, like i said, you have the discipline to fold a flush that pairs the board given heavy action on the river. the gutshot is to the nuts, so no reverse implied odds there.

5. a better flush draw isn't very likely, IMHO, and even if it is out there this specific hand, i don't think you can rely on it being out there often enough to make folding a better play than calling.

aseem