The following hand took place at the tail end of Day 1. I had about 25k chips. Blinds are 800/1600.

Held 6 5 in the small blind and with only one big stack limper in from relatively early position, I decided to complete it.

The flop comes: 7 5 3

I bet out 3100. The BB folded and the limper called.

Turn comes: 9

I now have a double gut to go with my pair. I bet 6500, leaving about 12k back. The limper raises me all-in. I have no information on his style.

Call or fold?

It will be about 12k to win 22k, if my math is right.

He has to have a better hand here, imo. I think you esp have to assume this without a read, b/c you are almost pot committed. I can't see him making this play with worse than a pair of sixes.

So it all comes down to the price you are getting.

Almost 2-1 on your money, with a pair and double gutter.

You need to have the limper on some sort of hand, but assuming all your outs are clean, thats 13 outs with one card to come.

I think you need a little over 3-1, I don't feel like doing the exact math, but I know its worse than 2-1

Maybe another thing you need to factor into your decision is how much you have left in the tourny compared to the rest of the field. And whether or not you can make a decent move with only 12k left. On a 1600 bb that's going to be tough, so you may just want to make the gamble. I'm not sure though.

I think you have to lay it down. He either already has a straight, or he has a higher pair and a straight draw, which counterfeits some of your outs. You're not getting a good enough price to risk your tournament on 3rd pair and a doublegutshot draw.

personally i think he flopped a set or he just hit top pair on the turn with something like 10-9 suited or A-9 suited or something like that. after all, he limped in early position, right? if he likes limp-reraising, he might also have A-A or K-K.

whatever his hand is, i think it's a very reasonable assumption that you're beat here. let us know the average stacks, how many players are left, number of spots that get paid, when the next blind increase is and what level those blinds will be. all those should factor into whether you now need to take an unfavorable gamble or whether you should play it safe by folding and surviving.

aseem

4800 in the pot to start. 6200 more in on the flop. My 6500 bet+his 6500 and another 12000 raise = 36000 pot. If I had called and won, I would have had 48k or so and an average stack going into Day 2. This hand came down with 5 minutes left in Day 1.

12k to win 36k is 3-1 on my money. Almost anything he made that move with has me beat, of course. But I think I was probably 3-1 against, if he had AA. A little worse if he had 98 or 9 with the clubs draw.

I guess the general question is that should I have taken the chance to try and get back to average here, even if it was only a 25% shot? What is my +EV with an average stack compared to what I was left with here, the 12k?

As it turned out, I folded, limped into Day 2 and was eliminated in the first 5 minutes.

There were about 110 players left. Average stack about 45k. 60 spots paid.