Actuary
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 1:29 AM
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)
converter
Preflop: Actuary is BB with Qh, Ah.
UTG calls,
2 folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.
Flop: (10.50 SB) Kc, Tc, 4h
(5 players)
Actuary checks, UTG checks,
MP2 bets, Actuary folds,...
getting about 6.5 to 1..but not closing action..
outs?
3 aces..count 2-2.5
bdfd 1.5
str8 3 -4
maybe....7.5 outs
the MP2 left to act concerned me
i got a little sick to my stomach after folding,,,
afraid to be in middle of raise war on turn, if I didn't hit it hard (like a J or Ace)
Big Pot, though
Leading out on the flop is not automatic right? I'm trying not to auto bet all the time after raising pf
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed)
converter
Preflop: Actuary is SB with Tc, Ts.
1 fold, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Actuary calls.
Flop: (8 SB) 2c, 3h, Jc
(2 players)
Actuary bets, Actuary calls.
Turn: (6 BB) 5s
(2 players)
Actuary checks,
BB bets, Actuary calls.
River: (8 BB) 8h
(2 players)
Actuary checks,
BB bets, Actuary calls.
Final Pot: 10 BB
played about 10 hands with villan..but his stats over 65 hands say 30/14/2.38
I'd say I should bet/fold the turn and river next time
With check/fold turn being second choice
Although i'm looking good again AK, AQ, KQ....
maybe its ok? Pot seems big enuf to show down against loose-agressive pf player
BeanGW
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 5:16 AM
First hand I don't mind the fold. You are OOP, and even one of your outs to broadway might not do the trick. If last to act, it's definitely worth one, but I think you played it OK.
Hand two I actually don't hate the way you played it against a semi-loose aggressive player. But, I would have gone the Bet/fold option on the turn. He very well might be raising this flop with two big clubs. If he raises you on the turn, I think it's much more likely that you are beat.
But I have also been known to give the blinds more credit than they deserve sometimes when they reraise PF... and I could use another hour of sleep so take my advice with a grain of salt.
Rokuban
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 6:22 AM
Hand 1, facing two cold and a possible reraise after me, I fold too.
Hand 2, I would have reraised the LAG on the flop. He might be trying to save his AK, I want to see if he caps or just calls the 3-bet. Then I bet the (unscary) turn and fold to a raise.
akishore
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 6:28 AM
hand 1 - beautiful!
hand 2 - i'm not sure folding is correct in this hand against a loose, damn aggressive player, especially if he frequently bluffs after being the last aggressor. if so, i think bet/call is best on the flop and turn and then check/call the river. i really don't know if i like folding anywhere here.
aseem
speedz99
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 7:52 AM
1. Great fold, and one that I need to start making.
2. I actually check/call both the turn and river same as you. Maybe that is weak, but I think it is at least 50/50 that you are going to win the hand, and it least it lets you know where you stand against the villain and keeps away any tilt factor. I hate when I keep folding to a LAG so hands like this (and obviously when I have a made hand) are where I take my stands.
BeanGW
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 8:06 AM
QUOTE (speedz99)
2. I actually check/call both the turn and river same as you. Maybe that is weak, but I think it is at least 50/50 that you are going to win the hand, and it least it lets you know where you stand against the villain and keeps away any tilt factor. I hate when I keep folding to a LAG so hands like this (and obviously when I have a made hand) are where I take my stands.
Yeah... the more I think about it the more I don't mind Actuary's line at all. It's kind of similar to an Ed Miller hand where he had Q-Q against one villain with a board of K-2-2. He played check call, allowing the villain to bluff worse hands.
I think you generally lose the least when you are beat and make the most when you are ahead or he's bluffing by going with the check-call line.
econ_tim
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 8:40 AM
Hand 1, I think the decision would be close if you closed the betting, but here I favor folding.
Hand 2, the villain's stats seem to fit someone who would bet overcards the whole way. I don't know about bet/folding the river. I think against a lag your hand is too good to fold, so check/calling seems best. You would have to have a really good read to bet/fold this.
wrto4556
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 11:45 AM
bet the flop in hand 1. Hand 2 looks perfect.
BeanGW
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 11:53 AM
QUOTE (wrto4556)
bet the flop in hand 1.
Chris: Just curious, why you are firing into a crowd with a Gutshot, BDNFD, and an overcard? I could see betting from the button, but OOP it seems like a check/call would be more appropriate. Seems like a spot where not firing the continuation bet would be OK.
Is your equity edge strong enough to make the bet there?
wrto4556
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 11:56 AM
we might have the best hand (albeit a slim chance) and we have outs to improve.
I can only think of a few times that i wouldnt bet the flop after raising preflop.
Actuary
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 12:30 PM
wrto:
then do you call 2 cold back to you?
Do you think the flop bet reduces the chance of having to face two cold? I kinda do.
If it is two cold back to me, I'm now getting better odds - but I'm always suspect when the odds are better because I bet a marginal hand. Is it ever proper to "build a pot in order to making chasing correct"
thanks.
wrto4556
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 12:39 PM
it is sometimes proper to make the pot big to make it correct to chase.
without doing the math, i think i would fold for 2 cold on the flop.
Actuary
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 2:14 PM
do you agree that betting out reduces the chance of it getting re-raised?
They might fear a cap...?
monoatomic
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 2:29 PM
I don't think it gets three bet if you lead. I think the orginal better calls and the Button still bumps it.
I agree it's an automatic bet on the flop. I also think it is going to lead to problems in later hands. If a LAG sees you raising the flop and then check/folding, you are going to have a hell of a time trying to get any type of bluff or free card play later on.
Wallacer
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 3:04 PM
Hand 1:
A lead out bet here would give you the benefit of more information from the players previous to the button. The button likely still bumps it, meaning the price for you is the same whether you call 2 cold, or lead out and bet. If I made your play and checked the flop I'd agree with folding to the bets.
Hand 2:
He is a loose aggressive player who could easily be on AK trying to bet you off your middle pair or whatever. On the other hand, it's not hard to believe he's a J. Check/Call seems OK against this player. A check/raise on the turn could have been a smart play as well, might've slowed him down if he's just on a draw.
akishore
Thursday, August 4th, 2005, 3:47 PM
ok, the flop bet isn't "automatic" as some of you are saying.
it's really pretty close, and chris, i REALLY think the logic that building a big pot so you can chase is incorrect, specifically when it's on the same street.
if you don't have odds to call one bet to chase, for example, you shouldn't be betting (anticipating a raise), knowing that you will then have the odds to call the single bet back to you to chase. that's just wrong.
you bet for specific purposes--as a semi-bluff, to push an equity edge, etc. betting on a draw when you have no fold equity and no equity edge just to build a big pot so you can chase is wrong.
here, i definitely like the way actuary played his hand. betting here into a field of five opponents is chip spewing, since you have no fold equity, you DEFINITELY don't have the best hand (to think so, chris, is exxagerating a little too much), and you're not pushing an equity edge.
what makes the decision closer, though, is that along with our gutshot and our semi-clean overcard, we also have a backdoor heart draw that's worth chasing in a big pot.
that's why we raise these big suited broadways, because they often flop at least one overcard and a backdoor flush draw, and something like that is worth seeing the turn. however, we aren't raising preflop so we can chase on the flop--we're raising preflop to push an equity edge, and being able to chase on the flop since the pot is bigger is an added benefit, NOT the purpose of our raise.
with that backdoor draw and the gutshot, i would call one bet on that flop all day long, and situationally even two cold depending on my relative position to the aggressors, how many others are in, etc.
here, though, i think this is a clear fold on the flop.
really, i like his flop play fine in a loose game where he really has no fold equity on this flop, and he almost never has the best hand.
IF you are in a tight game, it leans much more toward betting. you are now doing it for fold equity and as a semi-bluff, and an added bonus is that if you get raised, you can very easily call with your decent draw in a big pot.
aseem
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