Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Ts], [9d]. Hero posts a blind of $1. MP2 posts a blind of $1. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) [Jc], [8d], [5s] (5 players)
BB bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) [Qc] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (20.75 BB) [Jh] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero ?

i say yes...he may have the same hand as you

Call. You have the best hand more then 10% of the time here

This pot is too big to fold, and there could be quite a few hands that you can beat like AJ, AA, KK etc

more than 10% of the time?

we need it something more than that because we aren't closing the action.

this is close...let me eat before i even attempt

do you have a read?

Unfortunately no, this was my first hand at the table

Why is this close? I call this, happily or unhappily, every time. Of course i have lost 120bb in the past two days. Siiiiiigh. I think we're choppin it, by the way.

Didn't notice the pre-flop raise........hmmmm, we're prolly not choppin. I'm still calling though.

I dunno, I think the BB got us. QJ comes to mind. Still, I'm calling.

Call.

You only lose to a full house. QJ is possible, but MP1 not likely to raise pre-flop with that. You lose to QQ, JJ, and if he raised with 88. Not as likely he raises with 55. I put him on a big pair and if it is QQ or JJ, so be it. There are lots of hands he could have that you beat (AA, KK, AK, AQ, AJ, 10-10), all more likely (in my opinion) than QJ and as likely as QQ and JJ.

BB could have anything, but only a few hands beat you. He has bet every card, but never reraised, so I wouldn't worry about getting trapped by his reraise of your call. At the 1/2 game, he could have as little as an A8.

So - what happened?

[quote=brando]Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Ts], [9d]. Hero posts a blind of $1. MP2 posts a blind of $1. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) [Jc], [8d], [5s] (5 players)
BB bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) [Qc] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (20.75 BB) [Jh] (3 players)
BB bets

Look at the possible hands that can beat us right now (I hope I do this right):

Pocket q's (3 possible ways to have it)
Pocket j's (3)
pocket 8's (3)
pocket 5's (3)
Queen jack (6)
Jack 8 (6 ways)
Jack 5 (6 ways)

30 possible hands beat us right now. We could usually discount the jack 8's and the jack 5's, but since we had some posters pre-deal, there is no guarantee they wouldn't call a raise pre-flop, so I think we need to leave them in. We have no reads either (first hand at table), so leave em in there.

MP1 raised pre-flop. Usually, a raise would signify a hand like pocket aces, kings, queens, jacks, tens, nines (possibly), eights (stretching it, but you never know), ace-king, ace-queen, ace-jack (possibly), ace-ten (not likely). Of these, we are ahead of the aces, kings, tens, nines, ace-king, ace-queen, ace-jack, ace-ten. MP1 capped it after the turn, with queen, jack, 8, 5 showing. Would he cap a draw (ace-king)? Would he cap with anything less than two pair (possible holdings don't even yield a two-pair for MP1). This screams to me like a set (queens or jacks being most likely).

BB called the pre-flop raise. Their holdings are harder to quantify, as they only had to put in one SB, and the pot already had 11 SB in it (from the posters who called the raise). Then, the BB led out after the flop, but only called the raise. Why would they lead out - because they most likely hit part of the flop. Just calling when raised though - either they hit a set and are trying to trap, or are scared of a set being out there themselves. Then, BB led out after the turn, which was capped. BB just called when we 3-bet it though, so I think that rules out pocket queens (would have been high set on the board). Called the cap though.

River was a terrible card for our holdings, and fits into so many possible hands that can beat us.

All this rambling probably doesn't mean shyte. Easy fold IMO. Can't see both of our opponents hoping their pocket aces/kings (maybe MP1) and two pair/3 of a kind (BB) are going to win this hand. 8)

raise for value.

that's funny to me.

( maybe someone else will enjoy that )


seriously,
bummer river.

MP1 not likely to raise pre-flop w/ QJ? What tables do you play at? I 've played LHE $2/$4 for two days and I see people raise pre-flop with KJ, KQ, QJ, 109, 72(yes i know..LOL) all the friggin time.

Way too many people with the "any two cards can win" mentality and will raise and call with anything.

Please let me know where these tables are at...PLEASE!!! 8)

Party Poker LHE 2/4 ...past two days. Come join the fun!

Funniest was last night when MP1 raised pre-flop, and I had AJ on the button. All folded to me, I re-raised and got called...

flop = A J 4

turn = rag

river = 4


needless to say I was betting and getting called down.

Showdown: Stonecrow shows two-pair AJ
MP1 shows - K4 offsuit w/ 3 of a kind 4s..

crazyness!

honestly, I'd consider three betting the flop, you are getting 14-3 on your raise with 6 clean outs and two dirty ones. There is a chance that the BB will call two cold here too.

and on the river you should... :?

it plays much differently if he makes a flop three bet.



but he's getting 12-1 on his river call. I'd have to make the call as its very ahrd to say that he isn't ahead ~8% of the time there. HOnestly, from the looks of things it looks like MP1 is wayyyy overplaying AA here, he caps when the hero three bets out of nowhere, he raised PF, so we can rule out 109s, 55, and most likely 88(since only a good tag would open raise PF from MP1). So now the most likely hands are JJ, QQ, KK, AA, so really its almost 50/50 that he has one of those hands, but more likely to be holding KK or AA. so yes, I'm leaning towards a call on the river

I don't think its the MP1 that we need to worry about as much as it is the BB. Who is to say that if we call here the BB will only call also. We gonna fold to a raise/re-raise after we call? Now is the time to fold methinks - at least one of them has us beat. 8)

Well I called and then it got capped back to me, I of course called then.

mp1 - AJ
BB - KJ

The pot ended up being 30+bb.

Just wanted to make sure it was the right call and not be results oriented, thanks for the input

I'd love to know what BB had.

I agree that mp1+1 seems to deperately be trying to protect his high PP...KK/AA.

I'm guessing BB has 88 and is fine with mp+1 pushing the action.

(after seeing results)

wow.

Oh my goodness. Despite beating a bunch of donkeys for a huge pot, I am still not convinced that this is a call on the river without any reads...what happened after you called is exactly what I feared, it got capped, and you were almost forced to call another 2 cold. Nice hand though. 8)

That pretty much says it all. What a bunch of donkeys... 8)

two words for you, buddy list

we have to worry about them both. ~24-2 we can call, but when we are getting ~28-4 our chances of winning go down. YOu can't call a cap, but you can call two cold originally. We have to think about full odds instead of just the immeadite two when if we get it capped back to us. I don't think we can say that two people will have us beat 1 out of every 13 times on that river

Kdawg:

then don't you have to consider the likelihod of it getting capped, before calling 2 cold ?

I think you are saying to fold if you knew it was going to get capped.

Thus, by recommended a call on 2 cold, are you assuming no cap? Or highly unlikely to be capped??

of course I consider the possibility of a cap, but we are getting way too much value for calling the two cold to lay it down. Since we don't know if its gonna get capped, calling the two cold is a smart play.

I am assuming nothing, I just think that its something that we need to think about as we are calling, but to just say fold, is leaving money at the table way too much on pots that we should win