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Full Version: two pair on four-flush board (50c/$1 limit he)
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > General Strategy
akishore
50c/$1 limit he, party poker, ten-handed

pre-flop: akishore is BB with K icon_suit_diamond.gif 5 icon_suit_club.gif
three limps, SB folds, akishore checks.

flop: K icon_suit_spade.gif Q icon_suit_spade.gif 5 icon_suit_spade.gif (4.5 SB, 4 players)
akishore bets, two calls.

turn: 3 icon_suit_spade.gif (3.5 BB, 3 players)
akishore ...

what's your line?

bet/fold, or check/fold?

aseem
Chiggleslap
bet/fold

if they call/raise on the turn, you're obviously done...
looshle
against 2 players, check/fold. one of them is going to have a spade a huge percentage of the time and any bet here is chip spewing.
RISEorFall
pot is tiny. You might have some implied odds if you boat up, but you're slim to do that. I don't see a worse hand paying you off here very often. I'd probably just check/fold.
Actuary
I bet/fold.

so that should tell you what to do..the opposite.

I figured there is a 60% chance one of them has a spade..or two.

1 - 37/46 * 36/45 * 35/44 * 34/ 43. = 60%

I'm thinking its equivalent to the probability that one of the 9 remaining spades is in a set of 4 cards.

Now anyone with a weak spade may not raise you, in fact, they might very well fold.

So theres' a decent chance of no spade (40%) and a decent chance of a weak spade, like 10 or lower, fearing a higher flush.

I would check fold the river, without a boat.
Any small flush that stayed is calling the river, but may not bet it, so you can get a looksey for free.

You have fold equity with the scary board...no spade-hands and even weak spade-hands may fold. Also, only 60% chance of flush.
Yoo still have >33% equity.

bedtime.
Rocketwadster
With two opponents, the odds of one of them having a spade are pretty good. Will your opponents call your bet with ANY spade though is the key I think. I know many a player that will fold with a low spade to a bet on the turn there, even though they may be best (whether that is the correct play on their part is another story for another day). I think it's a bet/fold... 8)
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