akishore
Monday, July 18th, 2005, 11:55 PM
50c/$1 limit he, party poker, ten-handed
pre-flop: akishore is BB with K

5
three limps, SB folds, akishore checks.
flop: K

Q

5

(4.5 SB, 4 players)
akishore bets, two calls.
turn: 3

(3.5 BB, 3 players)
akishore ...
what's your line?
bet/fold, or check/fold?
aseem
Chiggleslap
Tuesday, July 19th, 2005, 12:57 AM
bet/fold
if they call/raise on the turn, you're obviously done...
looshle
Tuesday, July 19th, 2005, 1:01 AM
against 2 players, check/fold. one of them is going to have a spade a huge percentage of the time and any bet here is chip spewing.
RISEorFall
Tuesday, July 19th, 2005, 1:25 AM
pot is tiny. You might have some implied odds if you boat up, but you're slim to do that. I don't see a worse hand paying you off here very often. I'd probably just check/fold.
Actuary
Tuesday, July 19th, 2005, 1:59 AM
I bet/fold.
so that should tell you what to do..the opposite.
I figured there is a 60% chance one of them has a spade..or two.
1 - 37/46 * 36/45 * 35/44 * 34/ 43. = 60%
I'm thinking its equivalent to the probability that one of the 9 remaining spades is in a set of 4 cards.
Now anyone with a weak spade may not raise you, in fact, they might very well fold.
So theres' a decent chance of no spade (40%) and a decent chance of a weak spade, like 10 or lower, fearing a higher flush.
I would check fold the river, without a boat.
Any small flush that stayed is calling the river, but may not bet it, so you can get a looksey for free.
You have fold equity with the scary board...no spade-hands and even weak spade-hands may fold. Also, only 60% chance of flush.
Yoo still have >33% equity.
bedtime.
Rocketwadster
Tuesday, July 19th, 2005, 4:56 AM
With two opponents, the odds of one of them having a spade are pretty good. Will your opponents call your bet with ANY spade though is the key I think. I know many a player that will fold with a low spade to a bet on the turn there, even though they may be best (whether that is the correct play on their part is another story for another day). I think it's a bet/fold... 8)
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