Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

UTG ($54.87)
UTG+1 ($4.75)
MP1 ($23.45)
MP2 ($50.25)
MP3 ($22.55)
Hero ($47.75)
Button ($8.3)
SB ($55.63)
BB ($30.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Tc], [8c]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.85) [7s], [Ts], [9d] (3 players)
BB bets $0.5, MP1 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50.

Turn: ($2.35) [6h] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $2, MP1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $16.35

I'm beat, I'm way ahead, I'm giving him a freeroll against me, or I'm drawing almost dead. Comments?

I'm confused, why are you folding here? The only hand that beats you is J 8...

Wow... you really misplayed this one. Marginal preflop limp at best, raise the flop.... and push the turn.

I dunno if you missed the class in poker school, but having a straight is very +EV. Folding a straight is very -EV.

I'm behind a small percentage of the time and I'm chopping a huge majority of the time. It's the same concept as folding AK to a big reraise preflop from a tight player in a NL game.

Theres $16 in the pot and it's $10 to call, there's no way you lay this down. And playing $25 NL your opponent could even have something like a set or be on a bluff.

nh.

nothing wrong with dropping small edges in NL and waiting for the big ones.

aseem

I had to raise the flop to know if he had a set or a draw. That was my mistake.

Think about what I said. If he's got an 8, we're chopping (if he's got something like A8s I'm in deep trouble), if he's got J8 I'm way, way behind.

Thank you, aseem. I was worried nobody was going to agree!

*shrug* I may be wrong here but I still don't think it's a fold. If there's no money in the pot besides his bet then folding is the right play, but I don't think he beats you enough times for you to give up the pot. And at $25 NL you can't always expect your opponent to play logically, you're probably ahead here more often than you think.

The number of times I get people in as a 3-1 favorite far, far outnumber these types of situations. I'll give up my investment of $2.75 and move on to the next hand, where AQ might be waiting to dump $25 to my AK.

As a side note, what's the rake gonna be on this hand? I wonder if I even show a small profit on this if I go ahead and get my money in and chop it with him?

How much you invested is immaterial. The pot is at 6.35 and it's 10 to call.

You're being paid 16.35 for 10.

Yes, it's a chop most of the time and once in a while you're dead. How often are you dead? Not nearly often enough to fold. Certainly not often enough when you consider the rare times that you're actually ahead, on account of the opponents incompetence.

edit: the rake doesn't change anything, and it rarely does. This is a clear cut call, the rake only has a marginal impact on that. If it was a borderline situation, rake may impact your decision - but not this time.

The opponent was a smart player. His V$P was about 20%, but the rest of the stats won't be too accurate because this is based on less than 100 hands.

The correct play would be to re-raise all in if I want to continue with this hand on the turn. I stand to win $.37 for every time we chop, $16.35 for every time I re-raise and he mucks, and lose $30.15 every time he's got J8 OR calls with an 8 and a draw (such as As8s, or Q8). To me, that just isn't worth it--he has to be check-raising board with four to a straight with something other than an 8 twice for every one time that I'm wrong.

To me, this is VERY borderline.

I understand your logic. But your playing 25NL. Most players lack any semblance (sp?) of common sense. Call.

without a read that tells you this guy will do this with less than a straight it is very marginal to call in this spot. He is very rarely (probably never) bluffing, so you are either throwing in a lot of money to get a small gain of three dollars or paying him off his 10 dollar raise PLUS his other 17 that will inevitably end up in the pot when he has j8 (a lot more times than you'd think).

I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again. A LOT can be justified in $25NL. Maybe this was a bad fold at these limits. Calling here at a higher limit table, IMO, is a MAJOR leak.

Some thoughts I've had about this being a major leak at a higher limit table...

Firstly, I believe Harrington says in HOH that in making decisions you should assume that your opponents are bluffing 10% of the time. Now I have no idea how he got this number, and obviously some situations are better for bluffing than others, but still it's something to think about.

Secondly, suppose you are a strong player playing at a higher limit table with all other strong players(I'm going to use the numbers from this hand, but assume it's higher limits). The same situation occurs, and you bet $2 into a $2.35 pot with the 8. Your opponents know that you're going to fold to a raise unless you have J 8 or an 8 with a spade draw. So your opponent can raise to $8, and since I think it's safe to say that you'll have J 8 or the 8 and spade draw less than a third of the time, his raise is +EV. He can therefore make an automatic raise with any 2 cards in this situation. And since you know that a strong player would pick up on this, you can't always fold the 8 anymore, right?