Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: overs in a big pot {lhe}
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > General Strategy
PrtyPSux
I hate these, and I have trouble playing them.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with [Ks], [Ac].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) [5d], [9c], [4c] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) [4h] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (12.25 BB) [8h] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 folds, Hero folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB
RISEorFall
I probably raise the flop. 2 overs plus a backdoor flush and double gutshot backdoor wheel. plus the board is draw heavy enough he could very easily be betting a flush draw or straight draw, hoping you missed. I think I'm raising these flops too often tho...
PrtyPSux
QUOTE (RISEorFall)
I probably raise the flop. 2 overs plus a backdoor flush and double gutshot backdoor wheel. plus the board is draw heavy enough he could very easily be betting a flush draw or straight draw, hoping you missed. I think I'm raising these flops too often tho...


what about the turn and river when he check calls?
RISEorFall
Depends on how many players are still in. I probably bet the turn, and check behind on the river. I have been accused of being too aggressive sometimes before tho...
PrtyPSux
QUOTE (RISEorFall)
Depends on how many players are still in. I probably bet the turn, and check behind on the river. I have been accused of being too aggressive sometimes before tho...


I think thats my leak as well
RISEorFall
This is how I've started playing AK when I missed and get bet into. And I've been winning a lot more pots with AK UI. You'd be surprised at how many times people will bet into you just hoping you missed with your AK. I've seen a lot of betting into me then folding when I raise.
Jordan
QUOTE (RISEorFall)
I probably raise the flop. 2 overs plus a backdoor flush and double gutshot backdoor wheel. plus the board is draw heavy enough he could very easily be betting a flush draw or straight draw, hoping you missed. I think I'm raising these flops too often tho...


I'm not raising the flop hoping for running spades. Aren't the odds like 22-1 on that happening. Not worth it. Or is it? Bleh.

I think you can peel on the flop, but I'd drop it on the turn.

Granted, I don't play full table limit poker, so maybe raising the flop is alright, but I am not a big fan of it..unless you are pretty certain it will get you a free card. But with that many callers...you might have trouble getting one.

- Jordan
RISEorFall
I'm raising the flop, not for running clubs but for the combined draws of 2 overcards, running clubs, and double gutshot wheel draw. Also, our AK could very easily still be the best hand. the bettor doesn't necessarily have a pair already. He could be on a flush or straight draw or be betting into us hoping we missed and will fold. and if we raise and knock out opponents, our hand stands to hold up much better. Other opponents who stay in with draws can hit a pair and beat us also, but not if they fold. Although the 2 opponents having already called the flop bet they won't fold to another bet, but at this point we can assume they are on draws and we have them beat as well. EDIT: we only have to have the best hand about 7-1 times to make raising here valuable.
Jordan
That's fine, and obviously I see that in the hand. But with two callers in between, we aren't going to push anyone off a hand yet.

If we go UI on the turn, and are lead into, does he have to fold?

If we pick up say, the 6c, are you going to raise here or only call down as that card fills a flush and str8 possibilities?

UI, I think he has to fold if bet into, right?

- Jordan
RISEorFall
On the turn, he'd still be getting between 11 and 13-1 to call if he raised the flop and everyone called. I'm calling there, especially if I improve my flush or wheel draws. The river, I'm not sure. I'm not overcalling if bet into, but the pot would probably be big enough to make calling slightly correct on the end if it were heads up with the bettor. But don;t quote me on that.
akishore
fold the turn.

aseem
idiotbocs
i think the pot is too big to fold the turn.

raising the flop sucks, so I like the way this hand was played.
Steppin Razor
What kind of players are these?
Raise on the flop might be a good play as in addition to your outs possible, it might represent to someone a decent pocket pair (since you raised PF). But I also doubt you'd get anyone to fold here. Maybe fold the turn though.
Unless he's a total putz, I'd have to guess UTG+1 has a small pair to go with those 4's on the board. If he's a fish, I might even give him credit for trip 4's.
Vade
Without a read, I like how you played this actually. Raising the flop does suck as was pointed out. Folding the turn...it's a closer play, but I kind of like seeing the river with that dead money in there.
akishore
the pot is 8 BB on the turn approximately.

we have 6 outs at best. the K icon_suit_club.gif is probably no good, so i'll estimate 5.

5 is quite a high estimate, though. setting our partial outs at 3 is probably better.

still, even if we had a clean 5 outs, we'd need about 9-to-1 to call. we're getting about 10-to-1, barely an overlay.

if we use a more realistic number like 3 or 4, we need 11-to-1 or 12-to-1 to call. we don't have those.

you may say implied odds, but i say reverse implied odds. if you river an ace or a king and someone bets, are you raising or calling?

yeah, the pot's big, but i don't think it's big *enough* to call the turn.

anyone disagree?

aseem
jayboogie
Fold the turn, I don't think the pot is big enough and there are too many players still in the hand and your outs are probably not clean either. You could be drawing dead on the turn already if somebody is slowplaying a set or hit the trip 4's. I say just let the hand go unless you actually think your AK is the best hand, which it likely is not.

Calling the flop is fine with overs and some backdoor draws, but calling the turn is a mistake. Also most of the time you raise, you will get 3 bet.
RISEorFall
QUOTE (jayboogie)
 Also most of the time you raise, you will get 3 bet.

Actually, I find most of the times I raise this flop, the bettor either A) calls and folds the turn, cool.gif calls and folds the river or C) folds on the flop. I don't think you're getting 3-bet much of the time, much less most of the time.

I can agree with Aseem in why folding the turn here would be good, in this case. But I don't see why raising the flop sucks. We can be 95% sure we have the other 2 callers beat, and why does the original bettor have to have us beat right now? On this draw heavy board, I don't think he has a pair more than 7 in 1 times.
jayboogie
QUOTE (RISEorFall)
QUOTE (jayboogie)

 Also most of the time you raise, you will get 3 bet.

Actually, I find most of the times I raise this flop, the bettor either A) calls and folds the turn, cool.gif calls and folds the river or C) folds on the flop. I don't think you're getting 3-bet much of the time, much less most of the time.

I can agree with Aseem in why folding the turn here would be good, in this case. But I don't see why raising the flop sucks. We can be 95% sure we have the other 2 callers beat, and why does the original bettor have to have us beat right now? On this draw heavy board, I don't think he has a pair more than 7 in 1 times.


95% sure you have the callers beat??? You think not 1 of the callers has even a pair 95% of the time?? Your against 4 or 5 callers in a hand where you have Ace High, what gives you the idea that your ahead??? You put them exactly on just over cards?? You need to be able to read the board, that board looks good for limpers to me and there were 2 or 3 in there before you raised, not really inconceivable that they hit a pair you think?

Raising sucks because the other players called the BB's bets and you have Ace High at this point, I can't see how you think you have the best hand. Also if you get 3 bet, what do you do? Call one more bet and hope to catch an Ace or King that might not even be good? Throwing in more bets when your behind is a always -EV.

I don't see anything wrong with folding the flop here either. A lot of times, you'll need to hit runner runner to win this pot. That flop is ugly for your hand, if not for the backdoor draws, it's an automatic fold. AK might look good pre-flop, but when you brick it and have lots of action, you have to know your behind and dump it.
akishore
QUOTE (RISEorFall)
Actually, I find most of the times I raise this flop, the bettor either A) calls and folds the turn, cool.gif calls and folds the river or C) folds on the flop. I don't think you're getting 3-bet much of the time, much less most of the time.

i disagree...

i'm not sure where you're playing, but most people who bet a flop into a pre-flop raiser don't fold on the same street or even on the turn...

and why exactly would you be raising? for value? no... for a free card? that's not a very smart thing to do with four other people in the hand (the chances of getting three-bet or led on the turn are higher with each additional opponent)...

raising is terrible...

QUOTE (RISEorFall)
We can be 95% sure we have the other 2 callers beat,

???

where the heck are you getting this number?

a bettor and two callers, and you're 95% certain that ace high is good???

QUOTE (RISEorFall)
and why does the original bettor have to have us beat right now?

he doesn't have to, but even if he doesn't have us beat, he's not far behind in any sense. whether he's semi-bluffing or has a made hand, we're in a lose-lose situation against him.

QUOTE (RISEorFall)
On this draw heavy board, I don't think he has a pair more than 7 in 1 times.

again, i have no clue where you came up with that arbitrary number. it's not relevant, either. whether he has a pair or a strong draw, we're in a bad spot. if we're ahead, we're barely ahead. if we're behind, we're drawing to six outs at best and more likely just two or three.


raising the flop sucks...

aseem
akishore
riseorfall, i'm guessing that a big leak for you is that you're too aggressive with marginal hands.

(realize i don't mean any offense. i'm being honest that if you're chronically raising the flop in these t ypes of situations, you're losing money.)

aseem
PrtyPSux
QUOTE (akishore)
riseorfall, i'm guessing that a big leak for you is that you're too aggressive with marginal hands.

(realize i don't mean any offense. i'm being honest that if you're chronically raising the flop in these t ypes of situations, you're losing money.)

aseem


thats my leak too.. I just went back and looked at my PT stats for 2/4 (only 1k hands but enough to realize this) and almost all of my big losses were from bluffing into passive players that showed no strength, or betting an under pair when the flop shows and over card and people show no agression. I'm working on fixing that though.
RISEorFall
QUOTE (akishore)
riseorfall, i'm guessing that a big leak for you is that you're too aggressive with marginal hands.
You're right, and I don't take any offense. I know I'm not a great limit player but I'm getting a lot better very fast.

I have seen lots of times people bet into me and then fold when I raise the flop. A lot, actually. Or call and fold the turn. Maybe y'all dont get this a lot, but I do. Also, this is a great flop for limpers, to hit draws. Flush and straight draws. Maybe a little pair. But I think more often than not the callers have draws. I got 7-1 because when the action gets to us on the flop we're getting 14.5-1 on our call, so by raising we're putting in 2 bets to win about 14.5, or around 7-1.

SSHE recommends staying aggressive in large pots, even with marginal hands. I think this is a large pot, and I think we have a decent chance of winning or folding out smaller pairs that currently beat us.

I think I'm taking some of the concepts in SSHE a little too far though.

I can see why not raising this flop is ok, but I wanted more of an explanation than just "it sucks."
Steppin Razor
QUOTE (RISEorFall)
I have seen lots of times people bet into me and then fold when I raise the flop. A lot, actually. Or call and fold the turn.

Where do you play? I can see that at tight tables where the original bettor might be trying to pick up the pot.
RISEorFall
QUOTE (Steppin Razor)
Where do you play? I can see that at tight tables where the original bettor might be trying to pick up the pot.

Happens a lot at Absolute. I skip around from the .10/.20 tables, .25/.50 tables and the .5/1 tables. I'm just using the money from freerolls to get better at my limit game and try and build a bankroll.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2012 Invision Power Services, Inc.