mk
Tuesday, July 5th, 2005, 6:37 PM
I am an idiot and read the op wrong. Apologies for the following...
QUOTE (mkeller3086)
Letting 8-4 off see a free flop from the big blind and seeing the flop come 884 and then getting your chips all in with KK......thats a disaster
Hi. Allow me to defend my "worst.advice.ever" against your stellar argument above.
There are NOT many situations where getting cute with aces or kings is correct, but being on the button with 2 folds to you in a NL tournament is a reasonable candidate. It is a game of traps. And if you're making the same play every time with the same hand (e.g. raising 3-5x bb with KK)
no matter what the situation, you probably aren't making as much money as you should with that hand.
Like I said in my earlier post, I would probably raise here, but certainly not because I'm worried about the 84o in the BB flopping a boat. It's because:
A.) Limping looks far too suspicious to good players who are aware of this play. I want to look like I'm on a standard steal.
B.) I don't want to give SB odds to call with a large range here. I want to build a large pot with (ideally) 1 opponent involved.
There is some math involved here which makes your post look somewhat ridiculous that I have done and you maybe have not, so let me help.
odds of flopping a full house (2 distinct ranks)
0.09184% or 1 in 1,088 flops.
odds of flopping 2 pair (2 distinct ranks)
2.02 % or 1 in 50 flops.
KK vs. 2 unders:
85% to 15%.
KK vs. Ax:
72% to 28%
These are calculated risks I'm willing to take. Yes, I'm willing to let someone see a cheap flop with a random hand if I'm sitting on the button with the second best holding possible. This is because in addition to knowing the above odds, I also know that someone holding 84o will flop 1 pair about 29% of the time, and if I am heads-up with that player and have shown no strength, they will often think they have the best hand when they flop said pair.
Is getting cute with aces and kings a play that bears risk? Yes, but the amount of risk goes down dramatically the more short handed your table becomes and the better your position.