Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: econ_tim is MP2 with [Kh], [Qh].
3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) [8c], [Th], [3s] (3 players)
BB bets, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) [4h] (3 players)
BB checks, econ_tim checks, CO checks.

River: (6.25 BB) [Jh] (3 players)
BB bets, econ_tim calls, ...

CO was the worst calling station I've ever seen, so I should have raised river. But would I go for the overcall against normal opponents?

Also, I have no fold equity on turn, but should I value bet?

Everything's fine until the river. Regardless of what kind of player CO is, you should be raising. If you call, and he calls, you win 1 more BB. If you raise, he folds, and BB calls, you win 1 more BB.


Turn is fine.

To reply to my own post, I think I should definitely raise river since it was a backdoor flush. What if there had been two hearts on flop?

BTW, Custom, this is an Empire hand.

If there were 2 hearts on the flop, I'm playing it the same way.

And thank you. Just hit -100BB, your bonus will help a bit.

I'm raising that river. SInce you described the CO as a calling station, you don't have to worry about trying to get in his overcall,and it is possible that you could get it capped

Would you mind explaining the rasie on the flop?

Is it a combination of:

1. Maybe get CO to fold, clean up some over card outs, in case you pair

2. Get a free look at the river (that part worked)

3. Continue with the lead in the hand, because calling would look weak after your pf raise

4. You just might have > 33% equity in case both call you.


anywhere close?

thanks.

I have overs plus backdoor draws, so several outs. Plus I would like to get CO to fold. Also, raising gives someone a chance to 3-bet so I can learn what I need to draw to. Another reason is that the BB could bet a lot of marginal hands like mid pair or top pair no kicker, so if I get heads up with him and he checks the turn, I can bet and he'll fold a lot. This last bit depends on how liberal BB is with blind defense.

whats with the free card move on the flop?

i am seeing extremely excessive use of this in this forum lately.

the flop raise is fine. He's got 8 outs(the overcards are probably clean). I don't see how the flop raise is wrong if raising also cleans up some outs

can we give him 8 outs here?

i will argue that he has 6.

1.5 for each BD draw
1.5 for each overcard.

1.5 for the backdoor flush, .5 for the backdoor straight(since its to the nut straight, maybe even make it as high as 1 out), I'd give 2 or 1.5 for the Q, and 2 or 2.5 for the king(but I really think the kings are most likely to be clean, Q10 is a hand that many players at party like to play)

(as always Im posting before I read replies so I might just be repeating stuff)

I call the flop
call the turn
bet/raise the river.

I dunno what the flop raise was for honestly. but once you did that, I guess the freecard on the turn was fine.

bet/cap/call cap w/e

I think if any of them had the nut flush draw they woulda bet/raised turn

i agree with everybody...when the bb didnt reraise the flop i tend to thing he put u on the overcards initially and figured u missed...His check on the turn was a big flash that he had nothing and the river should have been raised b/c he may have just made like middle pair and was hopin u missed with ur overcards

Not every flop raise is a free card move.

it certainly was a free card move

if it wasnt, then its really horrible

because you certianly cant figure you have the best hand here, which would be the only other reason you raise.

I'm bumping this up for some more discussion since there's dissent on my flop play. I've given several reasons for raising and Actuary has offered a couple. Anyone else care to comment?

How can you award a backdoor flush draw the equivalent of 1.5 outs? The probability of hitting a backdoor flush is roughly 4% (10/47*9/46). 1.5 outs suggests that on EACH STREET you have a 3% chance of connecting to make your hand. The joint probability of having 1.5 outs on both streets (if that's how you're calculating it) is more than the true 4% probability that you have of making your backdoor flush... it actually works out to [1- (45.5/47*44.5/46)] = 6.4%

1.5 outs suggests 6.4% probability, whereas the true probability is 4%. A backdoor flush (unless my calculations are wrong) should account for less than the equivalent of 1 out..

Uhm... ill admit that when i originally worked it out, i thought the gap would be larger based on intuition alone. Still, though, if you're going to count halfs - it shouldn't be erroniously.

About the hand itself -

I dont see how raising cleans your overcards. Would a player who called a raise preflop with a hand like K/8 throw it away after having hit mid pair with a strong kicker? The same applies to most cards that you're effectively 'cleaning up'.

Not raising the river is tempting, but people at the low limits will too often make decisions purely on whether they like their cards. The amount that it costs to call relative to the pot is immaterial. If they have top pair, they'll call two cold. If the BB is 'bluffing' AND the CO folds to a raise where they would have called 1, you are missing out on a bet. Every other possible situation, however, you're gaining from a raise (unless of course, the CO raises).