Nutcracker
Thursday, June 23rd, 2005, 9:05 AM
QUOTE (slash)
I don't like check-raising the flop. This is why:
You're out of position against an aggressive player who seems to have a good holding. You're not going to get a free river if you need/want one.
You can create odds to draw without putting in 4 small bets on the flop on a draw (albeit a good one). You've got 13 outs twice.
I'd play it like this:
Preflop: same as you did. 4BB in at that point.
Bet the flop. You'll get raised by CO. Button will probably call 2 cold and SB will probably fold. You call the second bet. Now you're at 7BB in the pot. More than enough to call the turn if you don't hit it.
Check the turn. If it were live, you could check dark, because you're not betting out either way. Here you hit, so, you check, CO bets, Button calls, you raise. If they both call, that's 6 more BB in the pot. CO might 3 bet. 50/50 then that Button will drop. If he does you cap and get 8 more BB in on the turn instead of 6. So you either have 13 or 15 BB in the pot going to the river.
Bet out the river unless something super-scary comes out AND you have a great read on CO's hand and think it beats your flush. I think he's on AK or QQ or JJ. I'm not sure what Button is on, maybe a pair and the A of spades, but I think that's a little generous. Maybe more like QJ.
Assuming Button folds on the river, you're at 15 or 17 BB. If he shows down, great.
This way, you're dragging a bigger pot when you hit and saving 2 BB when you don't.
Or..... You check the turn and it's checked around, since CO was just on a straight draw with AQ anyway (and now he's scared of a flush). He is thinking to himself "sweet, the free card play worked, what a donk). Then you bet on the river to try and recoup some of your FPS losses and they fold anyway, and you take a 7 BB pot instead of 14.
Also, your math is a little wrong, and what on earth makes you think CO is going to 3bet your c/r on the turn? He didn't raise the turn in this example. He obviously isn't feeling great about his hand. Anyway, let's do some math.
You put in 2 sb preflop. (4 BB pot going to flop)
You put in 2 sb on the flop. (7 BB pot after flop)
You put in 2 bb on the turn (let's assume both called). (13 BB pot)
You put in nothing on the river as they folded to your bet.
First, the way he played it:
13.5 BB pot - 4BB put in = 9.5 BB profit
The way you play it:
13 BB pot - 4BB put in = 9 BB profit
Gee, your method not only is riskier as it could just get checked behind you on the turn, but it makes less money even when it goes perfectly.