very weak game.

ignoring the stakes ($5 buy-in), i am playing with a bunch of friends and having fun, but i'm playing very loose-aggressive and trying to play well, too.

the game is weak, and it's nine-handed. $10 is the average stack, and the blinds are 5c/10c.

i'm UTG+1 with 9 8 . i'm first to enter, i limp. MP, weakest player in the game by far, calls saying "i have aces, i'll call." two other callers, SB completes. BB, a rock, raises 50c, i call in a heartbeat (his big raise from the big blind screams big pocket pair less than aces (K-K through J-J, maybe 10-10). MP keeps with his joke and says "i'll call with my aces."

also add that BB was getting frustrated with his "bad luck", and when i called 0.5 seconds after he raised, he shook his head in disgust and genuine anger.

at this point, i am 100% sure MP has aces. he is making a big deal out of it, he is sitting up straight in his chair after being slouched for a long time, and perhaps the biggest giveaway of all, when the big blind raised and i called, he hesitated for a split second as if he wanted to reraise, but then figured he should just stick with his little act.

finally, BB is a rock player who is usually a calling station if he hits (strong bets usually mean a decent hand, but not necessarily a strong hand), and MP is a weak/tight extremely readable passive player who follows the common strong=weak/weak=strong paradigm.

current reads: BB has K-K through J-J (with his disgust, i lean more to Q-Q through 10-10, but more likely Q-Q or J-J), MP has A-A.

pot is around $2.

flop comes K 10 9 .

i see BB putting his chips together, and i immediately think "no matter what he bets, i'm pushing in for an all-in, which will most likely be an over-raise."

sure enough, BB bets out $1.50, i immediately push in for $9 straight.

good or bad?

would any of you have played this flop differently?

aseem

Since MP will probably call, why not just call?
Then you can have an easy release or an easy all in on the turn. It's that bit Sklansky says about forgoing a small edge on the flop for either a huge advantage or an easy fold on the turn.

You've got 2 outs to hit a set, 3 to hit two pair, and 9 to hit your flush. But since your trips may be no good (BB may have flopped a set if your read is correct), I'd put the collective outs of the two pair and trips at around 3. This gives you a total of 12 outs, slightly less than 50% of the time. If you hit on the turn, he'll probably bet and you can raise him all in (possibly slowplay depending on your judgment). If you miss on the turn, you're around 4 to 1 and you can let it go.

it's not a bad play, but i think that you know that you're not getting likely folds to your push, right? if this is the case, then there's no point in pushing while you're still drawing. if you're not getting any reasonable fold equity, let a draw stay a draw till it hits, generally speaking, in my book. assuming you're playing with weak players, it's unlikely that you won't be able to get all the money in after you hit, right? if, however, you do think that they'll fold to a bet once the draw hits, then a push is the right play on this flop.

as usual, it's a judgment call: if you think you can get the money in if you hit anyway, then don't rush things here. you are drawing; they're made (probably). wait till you do improve to push it. if you think that getting the money in later will be difficult, then push and push away. you are, after all, getting pretty sweet odds here against anything but a set of ks...

You are a favorite to Aces in this spot, Go All-in Everytime

i'm pushing

no. this is totally wrong.

i didn't even mention in my post above that this is a probable three-way pot, which a push probably makes two-way. in this situation, your odds of wnning change negligibly when you reduce the number of players in, but you reduce the size of your win if you hit by 1/3 if you push.

that's a big whoopsie. call.

I don't think pushing is bad, but calling seems the better option to me. Why not wait a street for an easier decision?

MP will probably call. Pushing against a higher PP you're barely over 50% to win. Against a set your down to 33%. Going all-in seems to me a gamble at best here.

If you wait to the turn and a blank falls, you can get rid of it cheaply. If you hit your flush you'll almost certainly win. Call.

no, jayson is completely correct.

against aces, this hand is a favorite. plug it in, even with the ace of spades.

aseem

EDIT: i'm saying jayson is correct that you are a favorite against aces. i'm not saying that he's correct in saying all-in necessarily.

right-- pushing isn't bad, per se, but it's less profitable. both plays are +ev, which is a nice situation to be in. :-)

jayson is indeed correct about the odds, but wrong about the play.

this situation is similar to one in which you flop quads or something, except you still have to hit to be the winner. if you flopped quads, you wouldn't push straight off unless you were sure you'd get called by both players, would you? you will make much more money here trying to keep multiple players in, and you will lose much less money if you don't hit while doing this.

I am correct about the odds, and the play.

What else would you recomend? Calling? You call, and Don't improve on the turn, Now you're an underdog to the Aces.




You will make more money by getting your money in when you have the BEST of it against these players, if you don't improve on 4th You're no longer the favorite! You Push All-in here, what are the chances that an overpair to the baord is folding? What are the chances that w/ the pre-flop action both players fold?

Ideally, You want both to call, But you also want to get your money in While you are a favorite. You are only a favorite on the flop here, you push in, if you only get 1 caller, so be it, you're still +EV.

If you push half your stack in, your next bet is only going to be 1/3 of the pot if not less (as he said most people have $10). Push Push Push Your Chips In It's the only +EV move here.

jayson, i still respectfully (but vehemently) disagree.

the raise here is a very easy limit play at any level, but in no limit, the key to winning at the low limits is making sure you milk your advantages for every penny they're worth. pushing here almost undoubtedly moves out the bb after the mp player calls with his aces. this loses you money, plain and simple. if you just call here, and then don't improve on the turn, then the pot's going to be sitting at around 7 bucks, which is going to lay you implied odds to see a river to virtually any bet (if you're not put in on the flop by the aces behind, he's not going to pushthe turn, either, unless he's seriously beyond wacky). if you throw in a min raise, then you're guaranteed pot odds to call the river.

so, either way, you're almost definitely going to see a turn and river. the push puts it all in on a 55%-er (even then, generous-- proper calculations would allow for a set of kings on the bb, which you're a decent dog to; my overall odds would put this at basically 50% with 1-2 overspades and a set possibly against). the call almost definitely gets it all in if it hits anyway (although, like i said before, if you don't think you can get it in if you hit, push and push away), but doesn't pay off the remaining 4-5 dollars on the river if you don't hit. throw in the fact that you're pushing out the big blind here unless he's got a set of kings, and you're making more money by calling up until you hit something better.

in a different setting, i think that the push is a better play sometimes. the more you push, the more likely you are to get called when you push in the future, which is a good thing. however, it sounds like this is the sort of game that can easily be dominated without the need for exploiting barely-better-than-coin-flip advantages for an entire stack.

edit: and both plays are DEFINITELY +ev.

Remember Akishore's table Image. I do see your point, and I am currently playing a few too many poker games to count how much would be in w/ the smooth call here.

But... For a player like Akishore or I too move in on a flop like this will get callers, I know if I make this play atleast one will call, very possibly two players...

I see your point though, and for the sake of getting better @ the game, would you mind calculating the pot odds for just calling here? What he's have left etc... I can then see for myself who's right.

But, I think we will agree that it would be situational, I dind't think of this at the time, only thinking of what I would do to make it profitable in this case, having the image of a Lag who will bet heavy a lot I know it's most profitable to go all-in, as in my game I could get 2 calls here, depending on second players hand.

But let's see the numbers!