ok - this is borrowed from Paul Phillip's blog but I thought that I'd post it here for comments without the results.

50K in chips left, par around 65K, day 2 of tourney. Blinds at 600/1200

UTG is ultra tight, you've seen him fold pocket Q's pre-flop in the SB when blinds were 500/1000. Action in front of him was 3,000 raise, flat call, all-in re-raise by 22K stack. UTG had 100K in chips at the time and folded.

You are UTG+1 and find AcAd. UTG raises to 3,600, you pop to 10,600, everyone else folds and UTG calls.

Pot (25,000). Flop is KQJ all spades, UTG bets 5,000. What do you do?

Wow this is the worst flop ever for AA and no spade.

I would fold because there are numerous hands that can beat you.

KK QQ JJ KQ KJ QJ

Not too mention all the hands that he could be possibly drawing too which are huge. With his tight image and then firing out on the flop you have to feel pretty confident that you are getting killed here and down to 6 outs, or at worst he's on a better draw then you are

Raising is suicide.
Calling means I need one of three tens for a straight, but probably have to catch runner runner to make a boat.

I hate to fold here, but calling and raising are both -EV.

I'd raise 10k in an attempt to take it down. Even if he flopped 2 pair, he's as scared as you are. What makes you think he called 10k preflop and then flopped a flush?

This puts him to the big decision of whether he wants to get all his chips in on this hand or not. I'm not leaving my chips out there without putting up a fight. I could care less whether I have the best hand.

Just the fact the he led into me with a puny bet makes me feel like he's scared to give me the lead. I think he folds this 60-70% of the time.

Really? Because I'm pretty sure the point of the question assumed that when answering, respondees would care whether their hand was going to win or not.

Ice

I don't plan on showing my hand down.

And why would he give up a 30k pot to a 10k raise?

If you're going to try a steal, you probably have to push.

Aren't you the one that wanted to fold to a 5k bet? I think your cards would hit the muck faster than anybody's.

I make this raise successfully all the time. The opponent knows that if they start calling off their chips here, they'll have to call the rest in by the end of the hand. If he doesn't know I'm planning on slowing down, he's got to decide whether he wants to be all-in or not. I put that decision on him.

Hum...I'm just noticing now that we started with 50k. I thought I was working with 65k. I still think I'd have to put a raise out there.

I'd fold because I don't want to risk my tournament on a bluff at this stage for that pot. As you said, I've only got 39-40k left. With the pot and the bet by UTG, I have to fold or push. Any raise short of a push is beginning for UTG to come over the top. Based on the read given, I think he's got KK or AK and will call any move I attempt to make.

not to mention that it would be a retarted bluff because if he could beat Aces he's certainly not folding.

Is it not better to raise with the best hand than to fold it?

His 5k bet certainly doesn't make me feel like I'm behind.

.....you think a guy who folds QQ in the SB is gonna bet this flop when he's behind

.....and why must we always talk about hypotheticals

You're right; it's an actual hand. Not sure why I said hypothetical(':-)')

The title has been changed.

http://extempore.livejournal.com/96834.html

Myself, I would have folded but the link below has the results along with commentary from both Paul and the player who had the other hand.

I think that's the main worry

Without looking at the link yet, I'd say this is an easy fold. I really don't think the 5k is a sign of weakness at all, he just wants to find out where he's at and I think it's great. If his 5k is just called or if guy who had AA raises all in, then UTG knows he's almost certainly winning. If UTG+1 just makes a strong raise (min 10, maybe 15-20), there's a very real chance that UTG thinks he's behind.

However, UTG is certainly limited to JJ-AA, AK, AQ, and maybe QKs. AA is only beating AK or AQ. If UTG has A:spade: K/Q:heart: then it isn't even by a whole lot, UTG having 11 outs to win, 3 to split. There's 3 possible KK, 3 possible QQ, 3 JJ, 3 AsQo, 3 AsKo, and if it's in his raising range, 3 QKs. Only hands you are severely beating are AK/AQ without a spade, of which there are 6 each. While there are more hands you're beating than ones you're losing to, I think the way he played it rules out AQ w/o spade and probably AK w/o spade. I personally think he has a set or top 2 and is trying to find where he is. He didn't raise AT preflop, and there's almost no chance he has a flush (only raising hand w/o K, Q, or J is ATs and thats the ****ing royal).

If you raise, you have to raise a sizable amount, at least 15k. There's 25 out there now, and you HAVE to fold to a shove anyway. I see this as an almost auto-fold, or maybe raise to 20k if you think there's a chance he'll muck 2 pair.

If a guy puts a bet out to find out where he is, I almost always tell him he's behind. Then he can fold happily.