KosinTrouble
Tuesday, March 16th, 2010, 12:19 PM
QUOTE (SwolyswoND @ Tuesday, March 16th, 2010, 1:45 PM)

This is not true, and is something that you absolutely need to get out of your thinking. At no point do we want him to fold. That means the question is, is he more likely to commit on the turn when we take an extremely strong line (which this is) meaning he will need a draw, which is somewhat unlikely given preflop action and the board. Or, is he more willing to call off on a river, blank or otherwise, when our line doesnt look as strong?
hmmm, sorry if this is hi-jacking your thread... if it is, let me know and I will start a new thread. I am having trouble understanding this line of thought.
I think he is on a flush draw, that is in the range I think. Seen to many people chase those flushes like no tomorrow. Given I do not play at your stakes, so they may be different.
I am thinking we have the nuts as the board lays. There is a chance the villian also has trips, in which case we clearly have him dominated and he will call the all in on the turn. If he has Jx we have him crushed and he may still call your all in. So the only real threat to beat our hand is the flush draw. Which still leaves him with 9 outs. So my thinking is I would rather take down the pot now or make him pay too much to see that final card and a shot at his flush.
If he is on the flush and hits it on the river we cant exactly fold, we still need to shove and hope he wasnt on the flush draw, but is that worth the risk? Isnt it better to get all the money in first before the river when we are the favorite as opposed to the river and possibly dead?
I guess I keep hearing its better to win the pot now then risk losing to a draw, that is where I got my thinking.
Kosin Trouble