trystero
Friday, March 12th, 2010, 9:58 AM
QUOTE (jmbreslin @ Friday, March 12th, 2010, 11:42 AM)

T7ss to be precise.
My first thought was concern about a straight, but discounted it for a few reasons:
1) I have 2 blockers for any straight involving a J
2) QJ would have meant he called the initial donk from SB and then my raise with a gutter+overs (possible, but not highly probable)
3) He would have had to open-limp 76 (again possible, but not highly probable)
4) If he did turn the straight, why shove the turn instead of making a smaller bet or check-raising?
The good news is I am getting more comfortable making these kinds of calls. In my super-nit days I'd fold a large percentage of these.
Most of this reasoning is fine but #3 doesn't really work, because although it's unlikely that someone will open-limp 67, it's also unlikely that he'll open-limp a lot of the hands we had put him on like 97 and the hand he actually had, T7.
My reasoning is, "This is 10nl, villain is PROBABLY bad (limp/call pf and then he didn't raise this board, like he could limp/call pf w/a pocket pair but when he hits his set then he has to raise), the pot is large, and the board is extremely draw-heavy, making it likely that he can be pushing combo hands."