10 handed, typical 1-2 game filled with typical 1-2 players.

villian in MP roughly $300
me on BB roughly $300

preflop:

5 limpers to me on big blind, raise to 15 with KK
MP calls only

Flop:

qx9x9x

Me: bet $25
villain: call $25

Turn:

4x

Me: bet $50
villian: raise to $150
me: ?????????


thoughts?

as far as reads: as i stated earlier, its a typical 1-2 game filled with terrible players. I sat down maybe an hour before this hand, and the villian in this hand was nothing special.
had played a hand earlier with him where i had AQ on a Q5QXX board and bet every street, the villian called me down the entire way w/o raising and showed a queen before mucking.

I don't know about anyone else, but the turn raise screams of a 9. I don't think he'd raise to 150 with kq or aq. He knows (or should know) that you have a very strong hand after your turn bet. To raise without a 9 or better would be very, very ballsy. A bet of 75 or so on the turn may have been better, but 50 is just as good I suppose. I think I fold.

Based on the previous hand you played with villain, I would def fold. If he is check/calling trip queens, then he is def not raising AQ or KQ on this turn. Esp. since he would probably check raise AQ on the flop.

bet bigger on flop imo, fold turn

Come over the top.
If he has a 9, he has a 9.

Based on the previous hand, are you serious? You actually tink KK is good here?

Don't think my opinion is worth stating but I am curious about why some think villian has a nine. If he just called down with trips before why does he raise here instead of doing his normal thing? His hand doesn't need much protection, and he would be losing value from Ak type hands bluffing the river or hitting and trying to make a value bet. I'm not saying there is no way villian has 9 but I'm curious as to why we think he would?

Because he is checkraising the turn when we have shown strength, and most people don't do that without very strong hands.

No no no no no no god please no. A thousand times no.

Villain holds 9x or random QQ like 90% of the time here, 5% he's on air, and 5% he has like AQ. The flat paired board on flop, raise blank turn is like almost always the nuts. If villain had raised flop, then maybe you have a case.

But on the turn, why on earth would we shove when we're never getting called by worse, and even calling the turn raise is questionable?



Because AK doesn't double barrel this board, especially live. A villain holding 9x knows he has you crushed and knows you will probably be going to showdown. Really villain's best play is to raise the flop with 9x here, but most players (especially live) love to slowplay trips or better hands. They almost always raise the turn then with them because they figure you are committed with KK/AA, or that you will just refuse to fold those hands.



Villain is IP here tryst, he didn't c/r. A c/r is much stronger, but villain's line of flat flop on a paired board and then raise a turn blank is almost as strong and basically screams 9x.

this and im suprised the agrument for raising is if he has it he has it thats a bad way of thinking about it. We know villain is a bit of a donk nit, and he is betting which means like 80% of the time is he nut pedalling

Solid advice. I've been getting a lot of advice lately about small stakes online and live play and a lot of it boils down to "villain's tell you the story on the turn". Basically, your standard villain at these low stakes will almost always be telling you what he has by his turn play.

The flat call in position on the flop, followed by a strong value raise on the turn is clearly telling you you're beat.

And don't ever follow the "if I'm beat, I'm beat" mentality, unless you like being a calling station .

awsome advice guys thanks!

results?

There are 4 possible hands here....A9, K9, 89, or QQ

I check this turn against everyone but mega-unreasonable/retarded players and really good players. I want to keep this pot small, and I think our equity is best if we're using our hand to catch a bluff or make what will seem like a suspicious value-bet against a likely-not-brilliant player. We very rarely get lots of money in here with the best of it.

Check the turn, with the intent to bet the river if checked to, and call a reasonable bet.

I bet this turn every single time to extract from Qx and worse pocket pairs

This is the most polarized range I think I can imagine.
This is a Q (not QQ) SO MANY TIMES IT'S NOT FUNNY.

No, mtdesmoines, it's not. Especially live, and especially with our read from the history with villain.

Live players play straightforward, and they do so on the turn. KK is crushed here against villain's range. Yes, the range I assigned is polarized, but it's just the truth. But yes, I do agree it's a bet. B/f probably if you're on your game, but certainly not bet/shove.

I've played a lot of live poker.

I was pretty sure everyone would say this is a very standard bet, which was part of the reason I made my first strategy post in about 2 years. I am interested in engaging in an honest discussion about the proper line, here, and could very easily be persuaded to change my opinion.

Why is this turn a bet against this player?

It has to be for value, since we aren't expecting him to fold KK/AA/9x. Here are the situations in which betting the turn shows a higher profit:

a) He is on a draw, in which case the turn is the last chance to extract value, and he will not bluff the river. He either makes a bad call (and he might not even know it if he's drawing at a 4-outer) or a proper fold, but either way betting is correct if he's only going to fire if he gets there.

b) He is behind, and will call both a turn bet AND a river bet. The profit we show from TURNBET(Call% x Win%) + RIVERBET(Call% + Win%) greater than the money we make from another line, like checkback/rivercall or checkback/riverbet.



There are some other considerations -- is he going to randomly ship it light? do we know? is the turn bet going to save us money when we're behind? -- but that's the gist of it. If he's the kind of guy that makes oversized river bets, both as bluffs and for value, isn't bluffing often enough for us to feel comfortable calling a pot-sized river-bet, but will check/raise the turn if and only if he has a 9-ball here, then betting looks a little better.

A lot of people just get into the "I have the best hand I have to bet here" mode, and I'm no exception; I just look for ways I can be both more difficult to play against AND increase my EV in a specific situation.

of course it's for value. When we don't know anything about our opponent, or we don't know that much, we want him to make the mistake most players make - calling. KK is crushing Qx on this board, and Qx makes up a healthy part of his range. Lots of players overplay hands like QJ/AQ, and they're NOT folding to a turn bet. My goal is to get three streets of value from Qx...this is a dream situation to be in against a donk. He cannot even have kicker help unless he's holding an ace.

Why assume that he's going to bluff at the river? Although we don't have many reads, the only one we have suggests that he's a passive player. Once he calls on the flop, and we put him on some kind of made hand (the only draw he can have I guess is JT), he probably wants to show his hand down. I wouldn't assume he's going to call us w/like 88 OOP and then bluff if we check the turn. He might, especially if another queen comes, because we cannot rule everything out. I'd say mostly though he just wants to get to showdown, and we should punish him for it. Checking this turn, without a read on anyone, is just leaving money on the table. You want to be tough to play against? If you had Qx what do YOU think's tougher, a dude who can fire multiple streets or someone who tries to keep the pot small in spots like this heads up?

Once he shows aggression on the turn, though, his range goes from pocket pairs, ace high, JT, and Qx to being heavily weighted to 9x/44.

i definitely agree with this. if he hit that well you have to pay him off. so often this will be a strong queen thinking that theyre good.

No, it won't, based on how Villain played TP in the previous hand. This is almost always 9x.