Which hand is better to have on a flop of JdTc6d:

KdQd8c9c

or

JcJh4s5d

?

Note that this is not a trick question.

It depends. Top set usually, but I would prefer the draw with position and deep stacks. It's true that the draw is a slight favorite over the set pitted against each other, but that's more trivia than strategy imho.


ttp://twodimes.net/h/?z=6887221
pokenum -o jc jh 4s 5d - ad ac 7d kc -- jd tc 6d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc Jd 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4s Jc 5d Jh 479 58.41 341 41.59 0 0.00 0.584
Ac Kc Ad 7d 341 41.59 479 58.41 0 0.00 0.416

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=6887224
pokenum -o kd qd 8c 9c - ad ac 7d kc -- jd tc 6d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc Jd 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 8c Kd Qd 255 31.10 559 68.17 6 0.73 0.315
Ac Kc Ad 7d 559 68.17 255 31.10 6 0.73 0.685


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=6887230
pokenum -o 4s jc 5d jh - 6c 6s 7d 8h -- jd tc 6d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc Jd 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4s Jc 5d Jh 644 78.54 176 21.46 0 0.00 0.785
6s 6c 7d 8h 176 21.46 644 78.54 0 0.00 0.215

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=6887229
pokenum -o kd qd 8c 9c - 6c 6s 7d 8h -- jd tc 6d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc Jd 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 8c Kd Qd 474 57.80 346 42.20 0 0.00 0.578
6s 6c 7d 8h 346 42.20 474 57.80 0 0.00 0.422


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=6887261
pokenum -o 4s jc 5d jh - 9c 8c kd qd -- jd tc 6d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc Jd 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4s Jc 5d Jh 337 41.10 483 58.90 0 0.00 0.411
9c 8c Kd Qd 483 58.90 337 41.10 0 0.00 0.589

Yes good post. This is sort of what i was getting at. Though the draw is a favourite heads up all in, the set is really the hand you would prefer to have in almost all (pretty much anything but heads up all in) situations.

If you run simulations against the likely range of hands that give you action on the flop, the set comes out well ahead, mainly because of the set over set situations that come up. Against almost any reasonable range of hands, the draw comes out with 50-60% equity. It is never a big dog but it is also almost never a dominating favorite.

The one interesting thing that I found running simulations is that against a range of Nut flush draw/ sets/ 2-pair+sd/ wrap sd, JJ** comes out about 70%, TT** about 60% and 66** only 50% or so. I was pretty surprised the difference was so big.

this kind of situation is why plo can be freaking wicked sometimes

might also depend on the players.

better players wont pay off when the draw hits, unless youve shown you can bluff at bad cards.
worse players might pay off some or all of the draws when they hit.

worse players are also more likely to stack off here with 66 or JT or AA