Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 343070
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $13.10
MP1: $10.10
MP2: $2.00
CO: $2.35
Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $3.45
BB: $7.65
UTG: $2.10
UTG+1: $11.45

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A A
3 folds, MP1 raises to $0.40, 1 fold, CO calls $0.40, Hero raises to $1.60, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1.20, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.75) J T K (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $2.50, MP1 raises to $6.10

also as a note.. hero may seem steamed.. just had Aces cracked AIPF vs Jacks.... 2 hands before this.

Gross... I hate folding, but what does he c/r a 3bet pot that you beat? AK,KQ... So many 2pair/sets/AQ in his range here... so gross

I feel like if we call/shove we're just hoping to run into the bottom of his range.

I doubt I make the fold, but I think this is a fold.

shove

Im pretty sure this is a fold here...its sick but what can you really beat?

so u would fold here?

Say hello to my friend EQUITY

yah im not laying this hand down in .05-.10 call me a lag if yah want

droberts, do you not use tracking software/HUD? Is a 4x open "standard" from villain, for the table?

TN, what kind of range/equity are you thinking here?

Also, does anyone think that the AA<JJ two hands prior is relevant? I'm not saying one way or the other. I generally play multiple tables, so I would hardly notice... just curious about peoples thoughts on that matter...

Probably,

We have teh acez...

But do you have any reasoning for "probably folding"?

Yes. That's a horrible board for aces. Its well connected. Even if the guy who came over the top of the original bettor is some kind of donk wierdo and is raising with a KQ, even in that situation we are not a big favourite (only 63% i believe). And even IF the guy has a flush draw, we are still only a small favourite, not to mention if we call the raise we still have a guy to act behind us who could also have two pair or a straight. More than likely, one of your opponents has flopped two pair here and we are a big underdog (Like 25% chance to win), or we're dead, your oppoent flopped a straight.

Its a tough laydown and if Im steaming or running good I probably shove here, but if im playing my optimal game and concentrating on what Im doing, i dont get a hard on over AA and muck it.

Just a theory...

Not bad, I'm in the same camp as you. I hate it, but c/r are generally so strong especially in a 3bet pot...

Like hero 3bet pre and then bet the flop... he obv likes his hand and villain should have no bluffs in his range...

It's just a matter of whether he is value betting AK KQ etc...

TN.... explain to me why I suck please!!!!!!11111oneone

Except that your whole theory seems to be that were up against more than one opponent, and we're not. It's HU. KQ is a very very very large part of villain's range here, and even if we're up against two pair we're not as big a dog as you think. 25% is certainly not correct (9 outs on turn, 12 on river)

Wait, we have 2 opponents?

We got check-raised and went to the flop heads up. You're reading this wrong and that totally changes the scenario.


After losing an AIPF with AA it does loosen up a player's range by a small margin, but not incredibly.

A fair range for this guy would be AK, AJ, KQ, QJ, AQ, KJ, JJ, TT, and i really don't see any legit flush draws here since we have the Ah.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

58,410 games 0.003 secs 19,470,000 games/sec

Board: Kh Ts Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.087% 53.39% 02.70% 31183 1577.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 43.913% 41.21% 02.70% 24072 1577.50 { JJ-TT, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }


Ok, so this is easily profitable because we have the best equity...

Now lets tighten up a range a little bit... rule out AJ and QJ, and add in QQ and KK

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

49,500 games 0.002 secs 24,750,000 games/sec

Board: Kh Ts Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.838% 47.64% 02.20% 23583 1087.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 50.162% 47.97% 02.20% 23743 1087.00 { KK-TT, AQs+, KJs+, AQo+, KJo+ }

Ok, about an even coinflip so if there's ever money in the pot it's a must push.



Now lets reeeeallly tighten up the range and remove AK and KQ.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

31,680 games 0.002 secs 15,840,000 games/sec

Board: Kh Ts Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.705% 33.90% 01.81% 10739 572.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 64.295% 62.49% 01.81% 19796 572.50 { KK-TT, AQs, KJs, AQo, KJo }

Well here we only have 34% equity... we've invested $4.10 in the pot so far. And it will cost us $5.90 to shove. We're getting roughly $6 to win $14. With 33% equity we break even at $6 to win $12. Clearly it's still a shove.

TY

This. We have outs vs any hand. ANY hand. And we has aces. And I think we see AK a LOT here. A LOT.

good job temp nuts i had a feeling this was the case but i have my mac at school so i dont have stove. Nicely done!

QFT.

Soz misread the hand. Thought it went bet, raise to hero.

It would be me very tough for me to fold aces in such a situation, even with the board being very drawy to str8's and flush. I would be tempted to push & hope he's on some sort of draw.
Btw that post by tempnuts on Pokerstove was very insightful, im just starting to use this program & defintley finding that im starting to think on different levels & expanding my game in terms of tying together the maths. Any useful topics around here on pokerstove i should look into?

You only has one pairz...

I love your all that pokerstove stats there TN, good job. What's there to be said, it's a shove, and in the long run this will give us profit.

Yup...

sucks really bad... he raised you 4 dollars on a .5/.10.. i think your looking at 2 pair or a set... even tho you have outs and it sucks folding here, i think its a fold... he would def raise with AQ with the hearts out there as well..... that shit always happens to me, i pick up Aces, and the bored comes club club club, and i have HD lol

HOF

Read all of the thread first before making a stand. TN just showed all of us that this is a shove all-day.

There are a lot of hands that we are ahead of that villain could be raising on this board, like KQ, QT, QJ, AK, 98, 8h7h, Th9h, other flush draws, etc.