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Full Version: Iso'ed Fish With 99 Near Bubble...but Got Shoved On By 2nd High Stack
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SwolyswoND
6 man tourney so 4 left pays 2...we're big stack here. Villain is aggro but not overly so, havent seen him get out of line. Limper is a loose-passive fish who limp-folds almost every hand.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1985)
BB (t2595)
UTG (t465)
Hero (Button) (t3955)

Hero's M: 21.97

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9 icon_suit_spade.gif, 9 icon_suit_diamond.gif
UTG calls t120, Hero bets t480, 1 fold, BB raises to t2595 (All-In), 1 fold...Hero?
outsider13
Ugh, gross spot. My gut reaction says fold but I may run some math here on this.

I don't think villain should show up with any worse than TT+, AQ+ (we have 37% equity for side pot), maybe as low as 88+ AJ+ (43% equity). I guess if you can put BB on a wide range it's a pretty decent call, especially if you think UTG's chips will end up in the pot - plus what's already in the pot.

In a nutshell I still think it's a fold considering you have SB well covered and 30bb.
Dhall901
Release. If villian hasn't gotten out of line before I'd think he's not here. Only time you can call here, imo, is if you suspect villian is trying to pick off what he perceives as a blind steal by you. You're stack is deep enough to let this go.
Javery17
I agree with the other posts and say its a pretty clear fold. You can find better spots and if you let this go you still have the table covered.
rrumsey
agree you are a huge dog here unless villain is an aggro tard
TrueAce13
I don't think this is a CLEAR fold...this is actually a really really gross spot. Like BB could definitely making a move against your iso raise, but as outside said, it sucks...but I think this is a fold

Yeah, I'm folding 99!!!!

Actually...in game, I'd prolly snap this off and LOL when he showed AA
delved
I'm calling a coin flip.

If you like coin flips, you should've called.
SwolyswoND
QUOTE (delved @ Tuesday, October 20th, 2009, 12:48 PM) *
I'm calling a coin flip.

If you like coin flips, you should've called.


16 combos of AK, 14 combos of AQ (discounted from 16 as I don't think villains ALWAYS 3bet shove that here). This is never AJ/AT/KQ IMO. = 30 we flip with
6 combos of each PP TT-AA = 30 we are crushed 80/20

so we should have approximately 35% equity against his range. Hero has to call 2100 to win 3300, so the math sure makes this look like a fold.

By the way, how can you possibly "call this a flip?" Do you not think Villain would shove TT-AA?

Edit: sorry, outsider already did teh maffs for me. Do we really think villain would bother making a move on my iso when he is 2nd in chips by a decent margin, against the only player he can bust against? I doubt it.
TrueAce13
QUOTE (SwolyswoND @ Tuesday, October 20th, 2009, 8:58 AM) *
16 combos of AK, 14 combos of AQ (discounted from 16 as I don't think villains ALWAYS 3bet shove that here). This is never AJ/AT/KQ IMO. = 30 we flip with
6 combos of each PP TT-AA = 30 we are crushed 80/20

so we should have approximately 35% equity against his range. Hero has to call 2100 to win 3300, so the math sure makes this look like a fold.

By the way, how can you possibly "call this a flip?" Do you not think Villain would shove TT-AA?

Edit: sorry, outsider already did teh maffs for me.Do we really think villain would bother making a move on my iso when he is 2nd in chips by a decent margin, against the only player he can bust against? I doubt it.

Swolys, I think you are giving a bit too much credit to villain's hand range here. I mean, if he is somewhat competent, i think his hand range goes up to a lot of pairs, KJ,KQ, maybe other broadways b/c of your iso raise. I going only to TT-AA is not right b/c he can even do this with smaller pairs too.

Now again, I think it is a really gross spot, and I'm not saying this is a call or anything, I think we should fold, but i do believe that we can't disregard the fact this his range is a bit wider than just monsters
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