Ok so I have been studying trends and lines and public perceptions. I am going to experiment in a theory that i will document here.

Contarian betting has been mentioned and practised by Biatch amongst others.

I am going to take it to another level and just bet perceived bad teams consecutively and bet against perceived good teams consecutively.

Right now in the eyes of the betting public the Leafs are the worst team in the league and most the public thinking its a lock will bet agaisnt them. And a team like Rangers or Colorado are perceived to be good.

For the next 5 games I will bet one unit on the Leafs.
Also for the next 5 games i will bet one unit AGAINST the Rangers

This is all imaginary as I want to try the theory first.

Current Bankroll: $2078

BET 1:
Toronto Maple Leafs +136 vs New York Rangers. LOSS

BET 2

San Jose Sharks +104 at New York Rangers WIN

BET 3

New Jersey Devils +140 at New York Rangers WIN

Bet 4

Toronto Maple Leafs +176 at Vancouver Canucks LOSS

Bet 5

Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers +106 WIN

Bet 6

Phoenix Coyotes at New York Rangers +135 LOSS

Bet 7

Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks +157 WIN

Please can I book ALL these bets?

translation: a thin excuse to bet on the leafs.


just joking with you serge, but I caution you against using the leafs as your team to bet against because " nobody" believes in them, because no matter how bad they may ( or may not) be this season, they still are a hugely popular team with a massive fan base unlikely to bet against them..

That's why Colorado was +120 against them the other night. That is just an insane line, and sadly, I'm an idiot and missed it. I would have wagered a large chunk at that price..

as i said..its a theory...I am pretty confident it will work, but i am not using real money yet..

Betting against the Leafs wont be profitable in the long run and I like to prove it...

Its not just the Leafs, any team that is on a losing streak or a team on a winning streak is what you need to bet against.

its really easy to say after the fact..

No, it's really easy to say that period. If the Islanders came in at +120, that would be a great line too. At this point in time, the leafs are a dog to the entire NHL. I know that hurts your feelings, but it's true. Someone has to be the worst team, and right now it's toronto.

I think there may be more value in betting against the panthers.

so do you think the Leafs will lose 80 games, 75 games, 65 games..??

Its all a mathematical game..they are playing really bad, but they arent the worst team in the league.

Its like the stock market, sell high and buy low...

The leafs are low so you buy them..

I wont guarantee they will win Saturday night, but they will win at least 5 of the next 10...when i am getting plus money on them which i will, thats a huge profit.

The problem I find with betting on the Leafs is that you never get realistic odds. Perhaps the oddsmakers have found that they don't need to give overly favorable odds to encourage betting on Toronto.

this is good possibility...The Leafs after their previous 5 games should not have been a favourite in that game...its something i need to study further as , i have to balance the publics perception with the popularity of the team.

That's my point.. it's like norte dame is never a value bet, no matter what their record is, because there are just to many fans of ND betting on the other side to make it worth it. I don't know ton about hockey, or hockey betting, but I would imagine that the Leafs and the Habs would be terrible value even if they are on deep losing streaks.. If a team like the leafs and a team like the panthers had the same basic team, same record, same goals for/against differential, I guarantee you the lines on the panthers would be better than the lines on the leafs.

Yep, just bet on the Panthers and lose everything.

It's not about picking certain teams to win and certain teams to lose. You're looking at it all wrong if you're taking Toronto for the next 10 days without seeing the lines. If the Rangers were -180 and the Leafs +160 it could be a close call, if the Rangers were -250 and the Leafs +230 then obv the Leafs look like a better bet, and if the Rangers were -120 and the Leafs +100, the Rangers would be a better bet.

i m going to guess that the line will be around +125 to +140..

Then I'll be betting on the Rangers

An excellent point here. Contrarian betting is about value.. it's about betting on teams that are undervalued due to public perception of them. That has to do mainly with their performance over one season, their recent performance, their historic performance and fanbase size, and the gap of these issues between the two teams..


So, small market teams that are good, it make take a long time for the betting public to get on board with them being good ( this happend with Tampa Bay in the 2008 season in baseball, where the betting public undervalued them for months).


So just because the leafs have started poorly, doesn't mean they are a good candidate for contrarian betting. Because if they get a lot of action betting on the leafs, the lines will never be that good . That's why I think a team like the panthers would have a great deal more value, because of both their slow start, the fact they haven't made the playoffs in 10 years, and basically have no fan base at all.. it seems to me that their lines will be highly inflated, and there could be some value there. just my layman's take, however, grain of salt and what not.

While the point about the Leafs being potentially overvalued is fine, I do not believe it applies to the Leafs. The Rays are a better example, and to some point, someone like the Patriots as well. Regardless of who is on the team, the recent success (or lack thereof) will colour public opinion, and affect betting spreads.

If the same was true of the Leafs, than money could be made just betting against the popular teams (since, by assumption, oddsmakers would always undervalue their opponents.) I do not think that applies to popular teams, like the Leafs/Habs, so much as popular teams based on success and public opinion, like the Rays/Pats.

I guess what I am saying is, that teams with large fan bases, that are popular, will never have as much value as their small market equivalent. There may be indeed value betting on the leafs, while they are perceived to be horrible.. but I think there will be more value betting on teams like the panthers, because they will have less homer sucker fans willing to bet on them +125 verses the rangers ( no offense, serge).

ding ding ding.

I had my whole pinnacle roll (all $75 of it...sigh) on colorado the other night - and will be betting them again tonight against montreal. I'm at work so can't check the odds, but last night when the lines went up I got Col at +122 for $50. If they're still +anything tonight when I get home I'll probably bet the rest. Montreal is playing terribly....

I like this bet too, I got the Avs at +125 on bet365.

Avs are +146 against the Habs(pinnacle)...Huge huge sucker play to bet the Avs tonight..As much as I hate the Habs..this is a game they will win. The line is basically telling you that the Habs are going to win...

i am very happy to see Brent go broke at the hand of the Habs.

Bob is right..the lines at pinnacle are better...+130 same game on bet365..

Care to put $25 at +137 on it??

Although I don't agree with Serge's theory on the Leafs, as I agree with the others that the public backs them a lot regardless of their record.

I agree with Serge in that Colorado is a very very huge sucker play tonight. Although it's not really a contrarian bet because the divide between the two sides right now is something like 55/45%.

I think Montreal wins this very very easily tonight. I actually have money on them on the puckline (+185), because I think they are going to kill the Avs. I can't really explain it. But putting Colorado +140 on Pinnacle and +130 on bet365, is just screaming and begging for the public to put money on the Avs. Something very fishy about this line, and I think it whispers to the sharps that MTL wins this by atleast 2, if not a blowout.

It's funny I so rarely bet against Montreal, but it's almost a win/win thing. If they lose, I make money, if they play well and win, I'm happy anyway (not like it's life changing money I'm betting here...)

I just think they're playing terrible hockey right now. I saw it first hand in Buffalo a week ago saturday. They had NO business even being in that game, let alone pulling out the win in overtime. Not only were they outshot by a massive margin in the first and third periods, they were outplayed from the drop of the puck to the buzzer. Their defensive positioning was terrible and they weren't creating any offensive chances.

Maybe Chris can attest to this but I really think you get a better "view" of how a team is playing by watching the game live. Seeing the game on tv just isn't the same. You don't always see the guy who's two steps behind or the sloppy line change or the lack of drive from the forwards backchecking because the cameras are so zoomed in to the puck carriers.

I think the habs are in for a lonnng season.

Just when there was a bit of doubt, the serge curse saves the day~!!!
Thanks buddy!!

the habs just suck ..no matter what the line says...was a bad bet, regardless of outcome.

I apologize.... biatch = idiot

you just can't stand being wrong can you? Don't forget to update us how it goes betting on the leafs for the next 10 games, I look forward to hearing about it.

I wasnt wrong..I never bet on the Habs( i never would)..the bet you made was a bad bet...regardless of the outcome...

I have you back on ignore..

I don't know how +145 can be a CLEAR bad bet, even in hindsight. Colorado is playing good hockey.

For that bet it wasn't only Montreal but look at Colorado.

They are my fav team to root for right now. I love when young teams play hard and they are getting great goaltending from Anderson. They're playing loose since nobody had any expectations for them this year. They might just fall back to Earth and lose a bunch in a row but getting +145 on them against a not very good Montreal team wasn't a bad bet.

My other thought was that it was the habs' home opener. You knew the bell centre would be packed full and with a long drawn out opening ceremony and the fact they'd been off a few days, I figured the players would be full of adrenaline early on and might just crash as the game went on. I think it was a great spot, and I'd have stuck by it even if I'd lost.

Couldnt agree more.... sometimes you can tell how a team is going to play that night just watching the pre-game warmups. Hell, on some nights you can tell a team is going to play hard or soft just on the way they come through the gate onto the ice.
As far as the leafs betting talk... Johnny Avello, the Director of the sports book at Wynn, had the leafs set last year pre-season right in the middle of the pack for the futures, somewhere between 13-16 overall. I mentioned that they were no where that good and he agreed, but he said that he could put them up there at any price and the action almost doesnt change, because the leaf fans will bet them regardless.

This thread wasnt created to be ridiculed and laughed at..Its a theory that i have devised and it will be fine tuned and perfected as we go along.

I have already decided to tweak it a little as 10 games is too long to ride a bad perception.

We will adjust it to 5 games. Bet on a bad team(perceived) for 5 straight games and bet against a great(perceived) team for 5 straight games.

I have taken the popular team angle into consideration and will track that as well as it plays out.

Eventually what i intend to do is every 5 game stretch, pick 3 bad teams and pick 3 good teams...Then decide based on line and type of team which game I will bet...Einstein was ridiculed too...

Still waiting on the lines to come out..However this will be the experiment.

I will start out with $2000. This will represent 20 betting units of $100...

If I am getting plus money i will bet $100..If i am getting - odds, i will lay whatever to win $100..

this experiment will last until i either go broke or double my money...

thanks and I hope you follow along.

Ok first bet is Toronto +136 tonight (lines courtesy of Pinnacle)

We are betting $100 on the Leafs..

OP is updated and we will keep a log.


Also the theory came in pretty good last night as the Panthers beat the Flyers..The key to this theory is basically to bet dogs and getting back a good price..I also like to reiterate this is just a theory, and I appreciate if and when my games lose for you to refrain from the hahaha, loser talks.

thanks

I hope you're wrong tonight, because I've made my biggest bet of the year on this game... I probably deserve to lose though, I'm starting to get greedy.

Bet 2:

San Jose Sharks at New York Rangers +104

This is exactly the type of bet we are looking for.

Assuming you are betting on the Sharks, I think this is a good bet. Then again, other than being against the Rangers, I'm not sure how this falls into your plan. Both are teams that are 'perceived to be good.'

i am betting on the Sharks..If you read the thread from beginning i go into my though process.

Every 5 game cycle i will pick one team to bet on(LEAFS) and one team to bet against(RANGERS)

i will bet them blindly for the 5 games and then revaulate and pick two new teams at the end of the cycle.

My thinking is , if someone told you the sharks would be dogs in Manhattan at the beginning of the year you probably jump on that bet.

Perception is more important to me as current play.

Colorado, Rangers are playing amazing hockey. But when its all said and done, i dont think the Rangers will pay Colorado in the Stanley Cup final. I like to bet agaisnt them while the lines(public perception) isnt adjusted.

Its something I am working on, its not written in stone and i will fine tune it as i go along.

I am hoping to get +150 to +175 on the Leafs in Vancouver on Saturday.

San Jose +money can only be a good thing against most teams.

Also Serge I got this email today, but I figured it would be suited to you as well.

Industry Responsible Gambling Awareness Day

Hi Raymond Serge

bet365 are supporting Industry Responsible Gambling Awareness Day. For the vast majority gambling is a safe, harmless entertainment and leisure activity. bet365 want all our customers to gamble responsibly and we provide customers with a range of options to help in this regard. Full details of these can be found in the Responsible Gambling link in the Services section on the left hand side of our home page. Alternatively, customers can contact us and one of our team will be pleased to explain the options available.

Kind regards,
The bet365 Team

lol..thats hilarious

lol 2-0 Rangers already..Maybe we are on to something..If I lose 20 bets in a row, we have the new theory..

Serge curse!

lol i love it..

Looks like it safe to call victory..Next game we will bet Jersey vs Rangers and then (YUCK) Habs vs Rangers.

Serious question...

Is it possible to bet the Leafs lose in every game and end up winning money? I realize it depends on odds and the Leafs record. Let's assume they finish with a .400 something record.