Early on in a $225 SNG on stars. I only played one hand thus far, and I hit a set of jacks, but it didn't go to showdown. Is there any way I can call here? If this was a $16 SNG, I think I'd call for sure, but given the stakes, I dunno...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 225 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1470)
MP3 (t1470)
CO (t1290)
Button (t1570)
SB (t1570)
BB (t1500)
Hero (UTG) (t1710)
UTG+1 (t1420)

Hero's M: 57.00

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K , K
Hero bets t60, UTG+1 calls t60, 4 folds, Button calls t60, SB calls t50, 1 fold

Flop: (t260) 4 , 7 , 8 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t260, UTG+1 raises to t740, Button raises to t1510 (All-In), 1 fold. Hero ?????

Total pot: t2000

Yeah... I'd guess that the button has hit his set, so you'd have 3 outs against him. Not enough to call that crazy push. I agree that it might be a call at a lower buy in, but at these stakes, you have to give them credit that they know what they are doing.

agree it sucks to fold but it seems button knows one of you guys has a huge and and is pushing a set here. Lucky it is extremely early so you have plenty left in the tank here to claw your way back

This may be exactly what the shover is counting on...

you really think someone is going to airball shove in a $225? he has to have something here! if he is really that smart and has you that nailed on a range then well done sir but void of notes we fold here 99.9999999% of the time

Well, yes, top pair is beaten by a number of things, such as two pair, a set, a flopped straight.

I'm simply saying that someone could be looking at AhKh for the flush or is feeling extra bluff frisky having hit top pair and a gutshot.

I'm not necessarily advocating a call and I don't play these levels, but the donkage I see at the $50 range is surprising, to be honest. Lots of people are inclined to speculative shoves and even calls at that level, so why not here?

The most telling evidence to advocate a fold would be the r/r/ai...I think even I can fold an overpair to major action from two others.

1.) he could have a st8 and a flush draw in which case we are like about 50% but AA, and a set are also there, we don't have anything beaten badly and have to dodge a bunch of outs or hit a third K if that is the case. do you really wanna push in first level of a sit-and go when we think he "may" be going wild? not really. I mean most people bluff into weakness, he is bluffing into a lot of strength, i mean just doesn't seem that likely
2.)i think he has put us or other guy on a hand, has a set and wants it in before he sees a flush and thinks that AA,KK, maybe even QQ would call. It seems simple and simple is usually right imo. If he has a set he see st8 and flush draws and doesn't wanna let them draw easily imo

1) Yes, I know (see above)

2) You're likely correct

btw, I appreciate this discussion. I hope I'm not coming across like a dick and if I am, it's not my intention... :-)

OR- yah missed that first time through and fixed it. i think the end point is still the same. if we had shown weakness and seen this i think we call all day but this is sick action.

oh and yah i love the topic and i hope im not being a dick either. the great thing is we can both be right or both be wrong or any other combo, there is just no way to truly know what this dude was thinking if we folded, and hopeful that was a wish choice.

Another good read, sir ;-)

I appreciate the discussion--this is very helpful.

Two other quick questions, and then I will reveal what I did, as well as raise the question of whether UTG+1 made the right play given his holding:

1) Does the fact that I have the Kh, and therefore have a few extra backdoor outs if indeed someone else has a set, make any difference? Or does the possiblity of someone else having the nut flush draw make that a dangerous red herring?

2) Did I lead out for too much on the flop?

lol at the stakes making this a fold/call

1) Requiring running cards 5to make your hand is not optimal. As you say, someone could have the Ah. Also, sets have a few nasty redraws to boats...(minimum of 6 off the flop, up to 9 off the turn...)

2) Pot sized bet on the flop can say a couple of different things, depending on the player, but I dont think it's a bad bet, given the str8 and flush possibilities. In fact, given the action, it looks more and more like your bet got you the info you needed to fold.

lol @ KK having 3 outs against a set. this is a pretty standard fold otf, someone has you beat or up against a big draw.

buy-in has nothing to do with it as stated above, lol @ that too.

Why does the buy-in not matter? I feel like in a cheapo SNG, I'm often seeing A8 go all-in on that board, as well as any overpair and whole lot of random draws.

your right buy in doesn't matter but the average player at that level does matter

I would also like to know why some feel the buy-in has no relevance whatsoever? In a $5 sng I think you can expect some TP/TK or medium flush draw or generally weaker holding making a move like this that would happen far less often in a buy-in as high as this one. I don't think I'm the best at explaining that but I think you guys are smart enough to figure out what I'm going for. I'm not even thinking its a huge difference, but if you would like to say that the buy-in is completely irrelevant to the skill level you should expect I would like to hear your reasoning because thats just silly.

I think that, in some cases, if you're facing an opponent who has you so clearly nailed on a range and is making an airball push with confidence that you'll read it through properly, then kudos to him. Mark him as a deep thinking, competent player and move on. At a certain point, you will have to accept that there are some bluffs you're simply not going to catch. Of course, if you see him do this multiple times in the next couple of rounds, that tells you a whole new story.

Also, you're not hurting in chips at all at this point and have plenty of opportunity to pick better spots.



^ Agreed entirely. You'll find pretty bad players at any level, although they become less frequent higher up. Also, you'll find skilled players more commonly higher up. Ignore the buy-in amount, but don't ignore the fact that at higher stakes you're more likely to find quality players rather than awful ones.


Finally, great conversation. I always love hearing people disagreeing, offering good reasons for their line of thought, and doing so in a friendly manner .

perfect! love it!

Button has a set/straight here like 85% of the time, unless he's stacking off here with TT or JJ. AA/QQ would have def rr preflop, and JJ possibly too. I can't imagine you ever being ahead here too often, although I have made this call before.........because i has 2 kings.

Thanks again for the good discussion. Even though the results are for the most part irrelevant, I ended up (reluctantly) calling and UTG+1 called as well. Turns out that the button had the set of 7's, and UTG+1 had 7d 8d for top two. I spiked the king on the turn and it held, but now I'm confident that it was the wrong play in the long-run.

As a bit of a postscript, what about the play of UTG+1 there? I understand the RR with top two, but can he possibly fold to the button shove and my call, or is he committed at that point? I guess by holding 7-8 it makes it less likely that he's facing a set, so even though he'd have to float a lot of outs if he's up against a draw and an overpair, his call probably makes sense.

bravo

And very bad play for utg+1, call is pretty much terrible IMO.

From what ive experienced at the 215s....the bad players are just as plentiful up there as the 22s....you'll usually find 6 bad players at least in a 9 man sng at each limit, and that call of utg+1 is one example. Going over the 215s is where you'll find all the grinders and less fish, especially the turbos

The reason the buyin doesn't matter is because at any stakes of poker, we need to be making the most +EV moves. In any stakes, this is prolly a really gross fold (though I will bet that everyone here woulda made the call in the situation). But i mean, look at the action, this does scream big hand b/c it is soooo early in the sng.

If the buyin starts making your decisions for you, then you are playing too high and should lower. Even at $225 sngs, there are going to be players that suck. a lot.

^^ this & i believe early this is a fold everytime.

With respect to the maybe I am playing too high comment, I think I may have been misunderstood. I agree that I want to make the most +EV move every time, I'm just saying that given the competition, that analysis could change. In a low-stakes SNG, I would expect the other players to have much wider ranges than in a high-stakes SNG, thereby making a call more often the correct decision.

Just like, for example, if I see someone is playing in 20 SNGs at once at a medium limit, and they make an UTG raise, I can immediately put them on a much tighter range than some random making the same raise. It's just a matter of playing the situation...in my opinion.

+1 to the buy-in doesn't matter. Presumably you're playing hundreds of these, and your good opponents are too. In that spot, the fact you're playing a $225 doesn't matter, it's a fold based on action.

If you're thinking "I'd call at $5", then what you're saying is "$5 doesn't matter to me, but $225 does". Which means you're playing too high.

not necessarily

i agree the buy in should not affect what we do. a +EV move is +EV no matter the stakes.
but the problem here is the ranges for players in a $5 SnG are drastically different for players in a $215 SnG.

here, even if the first guy is spewing or spazzing with top pair or a draw, the second guy isn't. his range crushes us.

in a $5, their ranges are much wider. the second guy has a pair or pair+draw much more often. their ranges change, so the most +EV move for us changes.

Not at all. My "call at $5" reasoning has nothing to do with the $5 making a difference to me. As has been said, you are generally going to be up against more skilled players at higher buy ins. I'm not for a second saying there aren't morons at every level, but to say that the general quality of play does not improve some as you go to higher level buy ins is silly. Maybe there's a mis-communication somewhere here. If I'm playing a $240 or whatever SNG I'm assuming I'm doing so with the bankroll to handle it...I'm not letting the buy in influence my decision because I don't want to lose the money, but I will make some different basic assumptions about the skill of the competition as I move up buy ins. Is that making sense?

i stand by my previous 2 posts and say that regardless of if the buy in was $5 or $225, this is a fold. people are reading into the buy in amount too much because they aren't used to playing higher. play a higher sit & go sometime, you'd be surprised at how much stays the same.

I agree with the "buy-in shouldn't factor" debate. The only reason I mentioned buy-in in my original post is because I was suggesting people are just as likely to be capable of making moves with TPTK or a flush draw at this level as with any other level and that the most compelling info is the bet/re-raise/RRAI sequence.

Cheerch!

really?

the last $10 sng i played, first hand 2 limpers, i pop it 6x with JJ in the BB, both call. flop is T86 i bet get raised and 3bet, i fold because what can i beat right? 62o and 84o. youre telling me that is in these players ranges at much higher levels? now yeah its an extreme example. but i see hands like this all the time at lower stakes. no, not everyone that plays smaller stakes sucks this bad, and im sure there are bad players at higher stakes. otherwise nobody would play.

im just saying that the +EV move may be different depending on your opponents, because their ranges are different. bad higher stakes players should still be somewhat better than bad lower stakes players. but i dont play $200 sng's so maybe i'm way off and you do see lots of limping/calling big raises with 62o.

also, im not saying this hand shouldnt be a fold. without a specific read id fold my JJ again there. im just saying that blatantly saying stakes dont matter is wrong. pushing +EV edges is right no matter what stakes, but the +EV edges may be different, regardless of stakes.

+1 this is the point I've been trying to explain. Honestly if this thinking is so terribly wrong its going to take a good argument to convince me. Assuming your bankroll is healthy enough for either tournament so the money itself doesn't matter, are you guys trying to say that the ranges you assign people and the way you play your game in a $10 tournament is the same as a $10,000 one? C'mon..

Of course the ranges are going to be different.

But for this particular hand. It doesn't matter. At all.

I'm folding here in a $200 SNG, and I'm folding here in a $1 SNG.

simply given the action it's more likely you're behind or a thin fav here rather than well ahead and with this deep of a stack you have no need to gamble at this point against 2 opponents. i agree that knowing a player's skill level can help you determine ranges at times but in this case it's a clear fold regardless of who you are playing, or their skill levels.

/thread

that is totally wrong, and if you dont see why, then well, whatever.

i never said this specific hand is definitely a call at low stakes. i just said you cant make a blanket statement about this.


and i would never fold this in a $1.


oh, sorry. should i not have posted again?

He'll beat you with his baby arm.

lol, thanks for the laugh

Having not read all the thrilling commentary yet (and I'm sure it's thrilling), I'm dumping here. You don't have that much invested and Kings aren't holding very well against two other hands. You're most likely up against a set...

Just for shits and giggles..can anyone make an arguement for checking the flop? In a four-way you gotta figure someone is all over that flop and it's not the Kings. I don't like that flop at all and might have aired on the site of caution..or thrown a small blocker out there (100-150) to see where I was. Is not c-betting completely dry here?

Good to be back.


Edit: Quite thrilling.

its always reassuring to have them drawing dead on the turn and have it hold..lol

ZOMG the 5th 7 on the riverrrrr.