QUOTE (hblask @ Wednesday, September 9th, 2009, 3:51 PM)

All right, I can't resist a challenge. First, Krugman is a horrible writer, just dry and disjointed, so I want you to know the pain I went through to do this. I had to do it in small doses, a few paragraphs at a time, over the course of 8 hours. Also, the article is as bad as the first page, with false statements and misrepresentations throughout. But here it is, a paragraph-by-paragraph analysis of what turns out to be just as idiotic when you read the whole thing as when you read the summary.
Paragraphs 1,2: Krugman says: Economists recently believed they had solved the problem of market cycles.
Reality: Only technocrats, such as himself, ever believed that. Most economists knew better.
Paragraph 3: He says: Few economists saw this coming.
Reality: Most economists saw this coming for at least a decade. It is surprising (or maybe not) that he didn't, seeing as how he's supposed to be an expert. Heck, even that crazy guy WrongWay in the stock market thread saw this coming. When internet loonies know more than you about your career, it may be time to hang it up.
Paragraph 4, 5: He says: This has created a deeper divide in the economics community.
Reality: The divide has been there for a long time.
Paragraph 6: He says: The Great Depression proved that free markets are terrible.
Reality: The exact opposite, as has been covered many times. Individuals did not shrink the money supply; that was central planners. Individuals did not destroy trade, increase taxes, etc, etc, that was central planning.
Paragraph 7: He says: Romantic notions of perfect vision led most economists to ignore the limitation of human action in markets.
Reality: No serious economist ever said that; in fact just the opposite. What free market economists do, in fact, say, is that, because we are all flawed, it is better to have a million little errors that can be easily cleaned up than 1 or 2 big errors that destroy the economy, as occurs in central planning and as the Great Depression and the current crash demonstrate.
Paragraph 8: He says: Economists will have to learn to live with an imperfect world.
Reality: Most real economists already have learned to live with that; it's good to see Krugman is belatedly coming around.
Paragraph 9: He says: Modern economics is founded on Smith's notion of free markets. He states the central premise is "trust the market".
Reality: This is a cartoonish version of what Smith wrote and of what most economists believe.
Paragraph 10: He says: basically, he repeats the lie that the Great Depression was the result of free markets.
Reality: Repeating a lie over and over and over and over doesn't make it true.
Paragraph 11: A brief defense of Keynes, saying he didn't want central planning, just government control of the money supply and economy when central planners felt it was necessary.
Reality: LOL
Paragraph 12: Filler, no comment
Paragraph 13: A brief description of Friedman and how he made accurate predictions.... OK.
Paragraph 14 and 15: He says: Eventually economists became more "radical" than Friedman, even saying that corrections were a necessary part of the economy. He also makes several false claims about markets always getting things perfectly right.
Reality: Economic cycles are a reality, I'm not sure how anyone can deny that. Nobody ever claimed markets are 100% perfect, just that a few small errors is better than one really really big one.
Paragraph 16: Some economists still believed in central planning
Reality: Some people still believe in a flat earth, too.
III. PANGLOSSIAN FINANCE
Paragraphs 17 and 18: He says: Rambling about Keynes views of markets, comparing them to casinos.
Reality: Yes, if you don't understand economics or markets, they can seem like a casino. For the people who make their living from them, it's more like the poker portion of the casino -- you know your edge, you know your variance, and plan for both.
Paragraph 19: Krugman pretends that by the 80s economists believed market cycles didn't happen.
Reality: Apparently being paid by the word, Krugman continues to build a strawman.
Paragraph 20: Krugman claims there were no clear reasons for past economic cycles.
Reality: LOL. He also confuses short term trends with long term trends, an easy mistake if you don't think very hard. Economic cycles are easy to explain in retrospect, but are fairly difficult to predict ahead of time. A big reason for this is timing -- events can be accelerated or delayed by years, leading to unpredictable interactions. So while it was obvious that the mortgage crisis was inevitable, nobody could predict the exact timing of it more than a year ahead of time. Krugman apparently confuses the confounding impact of temporal effects with a lack of understanding of basic theory. Perhaps he should ponder that a bit longer before he writes an article.
Paragraph 21 and 22: Krugman discusses the whiz kids who developed Capital Asset Pricing Models.
Reality: He overstates the claims a bit, but OK.
Paragraph 23,24: Discusses economists who failed to see the coming crisis.
Reality: Note that they all believed in central planning, that monetary policy should be used to influence asset prices.
Section IV:
Paragraphs 25,26,27: Introductory material for the next section, no comment
Paragraphs 28-31: A discssuion of how a babysitting co-op among neighbors failed.
Reality: OK, I see this leading to really bad conclusions about the larger economy, lol. See, the reason it's not really a good test is because for rich suburbanites, a night out is 100% optional luxury, whereas a real economy is made up of various combinations of necessities and luxuries. Also, the rules for exchange were developed ahead of time. Any extrapolation is bound to be flawed.
Paragraphs 32, 33: Krugman makes the following statement about "classical" economists: "They believe that all worthwhile economic analysis starts from the premise that people are rational and markets work, a premise violated by the story of the baby-sitting co-op".
Only if you assume that free markets are designed to achieve a specific and predictable goal, or that you can pre-emptively design a system to accomplish a specific goal. The babysitting co-op, in fact, proves the folly of central planning. It turns out, people didn't value a night out as much as the designers thought; the "free market" of this luxury trading system pointed that out. If prices were allowed to fluctuate fully, the results would've been different. In other words, Krugman continues to build a stawman, apparently because they are easier to knock down than reality. After all, in the real, free market world, babysitters exist, and parents make use of them. Basically, he uses an example that works in a real free market and failed in a limited, planned economy, and comes to the conclusion that free markets don't work? LOL.
Paragraphs 34, 35, 36: Discusses a few of the free market ideas for why recessions occur.
Reality: It is a particularly shallow analysis, but this is a pop-econ article, not a journal article.
Paragraph 37: Krugman again pretends that the Great Depression was a failure of free markets.
Reality: Repeating a lie doesn't make it true.
Paragraphs 38, 39: Discussion of the "New Keynsians", and how they tenaciously clung to free market ideas. More setup, I guess, for later.
Paragraph 40: Krugman claims that economists had come to an agreement that central planning by the fed would save the economy.
Reality: Only among technocrats and central planners. Real world economists never believed that nonsense. It's true, under Volcker, it looked easy, but monetarists and free market economists still were wary of the Fed's power to destroy the economy.
Paragraph 41: Seems to indicate that free market economists supported Greenspan's loose monetary policy.
Reality: Many economists had warned of the danger for years. Krugman is again showing how small are the circles in which he travels.
Paragraph 42: It would take a crisis to reveal both how little common ground there was and how Panglossian even New Keynesian economics had become.
Section V. NOBODY COULD HAVE PREDICTED . . .
Paragraphs 43, 44: Krugman notes that many economists predicted the housing bubble, but central planners missed it.
Reality: Duh!
Paragrah 45: Krugman wonders how they missed the bubble.
Reality: This should be his central thesis, and the answer is obvious -- nobody is correct all the time. This is exactly why central planning is doomed to failure -- when the mistakes of a few doom an entire economy, your system is flawed.
Paragraphs 46, 47, 48: A discussion of the housing bubble, how some people said bubbles weren't possible because individuals are careful with their home purchases.
Reality: This is a cartoonish simplification of both theory and of the reality. First, few economists hold such rigid beliefs; and I suspect the quote in the article is out of context. Second, it is possible to believe in a rational market AND a housing bubble. The problem is that if central planners create structural incentives to bid prices up, for any particular individual, it is economically rational to bid the price up, whereas for the economy as a whole, it is a dangerous game. Again, this is why we shouldn't give a few central planners the power to manipulate the structural incentives of free markets -- eventually, they will get it wrong.
Paragraph 49: Krugman repeats his claim that this was "undiagnosed".
Reality: Seriously? How many f-ing times are you going to repeat this nonsense?
VI. THE STIMULUS SQUABBLE
Paragraph 50: Krugman says that the prosperity of 1985-2007 led to less fighting among economists.
Reality: Probably true, we complain less about the dangers of central planning when things are not in crisis mode. That doesn't mean we agree, just that there are more pressing things to worry about.
Paragraph 51, 52: Krugman uses the phrase "technocratic policies both sides were willing to accept"
Reality: Another big LOL. The two sides aren't technocrats; technocrats are one side. The sides are technocrats vs free markets.
Paragraph 53, 54: Krugman tries to explain why central planning can't rescue us from this central-planning-induced recession.
Reality: Duh!
Paragraph 55: Krugman uses the failure of central planning as evidence for the need for more central planning, of the Keynesian spending variety.
Reality: Really? I guess the theory must be "if we try enough things long enough, eventually, we'll get it right." Sorry, I won't play. It's an idiotic theory built on an idiotic premise. The entire theory of Keynesian spending is flawed because it operates in a vacuum -- it ignores the fact that the money has to *come from* somewhere -- usually, the productive economy.
Paragraph 56, 57: Obama's spending binge has made economists wake up and start to defend reality again.
Reality: Yes, it's about time. 80 years of failed policy is enough; Obama's theory that if we just multiply a failed policy by 10 we'll get better results is a rare form of insanity.
Paragraph 58: The ivory tower central planning theorists are shocked -- just SHOCKED -- to find out that people disagree with them.
Comment: Another big LOL.
Paragraph 59: Krugman misrepresents Friedman's views.
Reality: Friedman didn't believe in central planning, but he was a realist. He knew the Fed existed and was not going away soon, so he tried to steer them in the right direction. That doesn't mean it was his preferred system, he was just trying to make a bad situation less harmful. Krugman has a long history of misrepresenting Friedman's beliefs, so this is no surprise that he does it here again.
Paragraph 60, 61: Not sure what he's talking about here; apparently he found some obscure theorists. I certainly haven't heard these theories before and they are far from the mainstream.
Paragraph 62, 63: More misrepresentation of free market theories, followed by noting that the New Keynesians models don't work.
Reality: Tired strawman; and of course Keynesian models don't work.
VII. FLAWS AND FRICTIONS
Paragraph 64: Krugman again shows his lack of understanding of free market theory.
Reality: Have fun with your stawman, Mr K, I'm not playing.
Paragraph 65, 66, 67: Krugman acts surprised and shocked to find that economics is complex and subtle.
Reality: That's what free market economists have been saying for years, it's about time you are coming around.
Paragraph 68: Krugman again misrepresents Friedman's views.
Comment: Sigh.
Paragraph 69: Krugman seems to be further realizing the reality of what free market economists have been saying all along.
Reality: Someday, maybe he'll even develop an understanding!
Paragraph 70, 71: Krugman falls back to claiming the current crisis is a free market failure,
Reality: Free market economists are the ones who recognized and warned about the danger for a decade. Yes, Paul, horrible structural incentives can cause bad things to happen. No surprise there.
Paragraph 72, 73: Ignoring the implications of everything he's written to this point, he again claims the current crisis is a free market failure and shows the need for central planning.
Reality: This is why Krugman is such a joke -- he can write 8 pages and then ignore the obvious implications of his own writing.
VIII. RE-EMBRACING KEYNES
Final three paragraphs: Krugman again defends Keynesian economics and says, because humans are flawed, we need more central planning.
Reality: It is because humans are flawed that central planning is dangerous. All you need to ask is one simple question: If a person makes a mistake, do you want it to affect that person, or do you want it to affect 300 million people? With central planning, you get the latter; with free markets, you get the former. It seems like an obvious choice, but apparently Krugman prefers to affect 300 million. That is such a sad and cynical view, and after detailing this article, I just find Krugman more appalling than ever. His line of thinking has led to vast amounts of suffering over the last 100 years; it's time to kill it once and for all, not call for its revival.
So there, checky, I expect an equally detailed response from you now, or I will personally accuse you of intellectual laziness. Let's see you respond to every single point here.
I just want to say that this post turned me from an occasional lurker to a member. It's humorous, it's dead on accurate, it's a little in your face. I love it, bravo.