Deep in the 70k.

Important Stacks

Blinds: 600/1200 +antes

Me: 105k
Villian A: $24k
Villian B: $50k

I open MP to $2199 with JJ

Villian A shoves

Villian B overshoves

Me?

Ranges?

What do you think?

Without any info on how they have been playing its hard to say but me i would fold

Blah sick spot....

I think shoving range is something like 88+, KJs+, ATs+ if he is somewhat competent

Over shoving range though I think is pretty shrong and be like TT+,KQs+, AQ and AK

I think that it is a fold...but knowing me, I can't get away from picture pockets

Fold.

A=AQ+, 77+
B=AK, TT+

B is shoving 40BBs here w/ a player all-in. I tend to err on the side of caution in such a situation.

lol, as I've already said over aim:

A: 77+, A8s+, ATo+, KJo+, KTs+, QJs, JTs
B: TT+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs maybe

I think these are prob even tighter than they actually are but regardless it's a pretty big leak to fold here.

Yes my fine little friend! I was hoping for more discussion before you posted. But you gave the answer that I knew to be correct, I just needed to confirm it.

It's funny, people have similar ranges listed that you do and they still say fold. My leak is that iso shove. I instantly think ACES. It's a call all day long.

I could have added table position. I was late MP, short villian was CO or Button, other villian was BB.

JJ is way ahead here of the ranges and priced in. Plus my tournament is not at risk by calling. This hand is the difference between a deep run fizzling out in 20 something or a FT.

you opened to 2199 huh?

If blinds are 600/1200 how did you raise to 2199? Regardless I would probably muck but not happily. The times we're ahead we most probably aren't vastly ahead and the times we're behind we are crushed. Meh the only thing that might swing me towards call is the fact that we have such a nice stack that we can afford to lose and still have a good amount of play, but in the end I think I probably still fold.

Also have you no reads whatsoever on villains? What are you doing while you should be paying attention in this tournament? at least get an HUD open so you can have some stats to help influence a decision here...

Hmmmmmm good point. I have the blinds wrong. But stacks and everything else is good. I will look at hh tomorrow.

HAHAHAHA

Both players were basic TAG. Villian B made some questionable three bets but nothing outrageous.

All the more reason to dumpity-dump-dump those fishhooks...Why would either of them shove for that much (well, especially the over shover) without a big hand here if they were basic TAG players? Seems a no-brainer to me..

Understandable. Cuz that's what I did. With the amount of money in that pot and the hand ranges which Tehtoe is spot on with, it's a clear call. Insta-Call more than likely. As he talked me through it, he said, what are those guys thinking? Big stack opens standard from MP. My range is almost ATC because I have been active and I can push people around. Shorty shoves exactly the range below I believe. He thinks that he can pick up that smallish pot, he can't flat and set mine. BB knows this. He wants to isolate the shover because his range holds up well against a huge amount of hands that the shorty could hold plus gets me out of the pot unless I have an absolute monster - AA, KK, QQ, AK.



I seriously tanked and cringed when I hit the fold button because I know it was super nitty and the wrong move. Not being results oriented here at all. But Tehtoe's range is perfect. And when you think it through the way he did, it is almost common sense. Maybe he will enlighten us with that thought process again... or maybe not.

Calling there gets you to the FT if you hold up. And you aren't even crippled with a bunch of big blinds if you are unlucky - unlucky as in outdrawn or the rare over pair.

You're only gonna win this pot roughly 35% of the time against those players ranges, and you're only getting around 1.2 to 1 on your money....pretty cut and dry case here

I think it's 47k to win 77k which is not 1.2:1. That is complicated a little by sidepots but I guess that doesn't really matter. 77/47 ~11/7 ~ 1.6: 1

Also we win around 38% of the time.


Calllllllll


If you win you'll have all the chips in the worlddddd

I think Tehtoe's ranges are a bit too loose without any knowledge of the players. Then you throw in that they have both been playing basic TAG and I think you have to tighten up those ranges.


Whatever those exact numbers are, even if HighwayStar is right about them we hardly have anything invested in the pot and I don't feel the need to gamble for those chips is really present here. I think saying we win 38% of the time is being optimistic too. And sure if we win we have a ton of chips, but dude look at your stack. You already have a ton of chips so whatever you've been doing has been working fine, there's no need to risk half of them right here. Do I think calling is terrible? No. I think its close but I'm very much in favor of folding here.

If I remember correctly A was on the button nd B was in the small blind?

I'd say A shoves something like
44+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+


and I'd say B shoves something like

88+,AJs+,AQo+


Jacks has 39.331% equity aginst those 2 ranges. You can tighten them up but it's not gonna go below 37% easily unless 47k dude is a meganit and is only isoing about 3%.

Pot odds are around 1.63 : 1 which means we need around 37.3% to call.

I guess it's not a huge edge, but for that many chips deep in this MTT I think I take it all day.

You could probably afford to fold this in a smaller stakes tournament where

a) your edge overall is larger
the ranges may be tighter - especially the SB.

However in a $55 MTT TAG does not mean nit. I'd label myself a TAG and I'm gonna be shoving those 2 spots with the ranges I put above (probably - give or take a couple of hands). Faced with this edge for that many chips I just can't pass it up.

I think my calling range here is gonna be around TT+ and AQ+. AQo and TT/99 are right on the border. YOu could argue that sticking it in with KQs in this spot could be better than sticking in AJ or 99.

edit - nm, my instincts were wrong about that. 99 is a pretty bad call here, KQs is terrible, TT is not good. AJo/AQo are pretty bad, even AQs isn't great. AK is good.

So a good calling range here is JJ+, AK.

Well like I said it depends a bit on the range you give them, which I think is tighter but thats splitting hairs a bit math-wise. You showed that the edge is close, also like I said. I lean toward fold, you call; I guess it's just about style/strategy at some point. I said I don't think calling is terrible but IMO its not a risk I would want to take here. I appreciate your thought processes and explanation tho.

ok, blinds were 500/1000 about to go up.

Carry on...

This is a pretty accurate post.

My ranges aren't great in these spots...but I am prob folding TT, 100% calling with QQ, and JJ i am wishywashy but calling more often than folding.

I think the pot odds I used were based on 500/1000, even if they weren't I think the same calling range applies although Jacks becomes closer to borderline.

Looking at it all again, TT would be a pretty awful call (although I probably would have called it off before analysing it)

lol...Thats where we probably differ. I would definitely call with QQ and I'm sure I'd fold TT, but JJ is that 'tweener hand. It can go either way and it can reasoned well enough to call or to fold.

Well the reason I like the argument for calling is that we are in the final 30ish. All that matters at this point is the FT and with enough chips to win. So with that in mind and knowing blinds are going up, antes will start hurting, and we cant expect many premiums before FT bubble, I think its a call. CL is around 385k at this point and a bunch over 200. Even though I have a lot of chips, above avg. there are a bunch of stacks over me. At this point in the tourny I am playing to win, not just step up in payouts cuz they don't matter.

My goal at this point is to win 12k. Not $600 for bubbling the FT.

Next time this exact situation comes up, I call.

I mean the math shows it's a profitable call, if we do get it in and lose we still have 50 bbs, so I can't really see why you wouldn't get it in here.

I was going to ask this but forgot to because it certainly makes a difference. All you said before was that we were "deepish" you didn't tell us whether we were in the money or how many were left, etc...

Yeah, I should have given more info. But its been a while since I posted in strat.

This range is way too wide, well B isnt too bad, but A is...Tehtoes range is pretty spot on in this situation. You are correct on the math, i just did it real quick like in my head in my previous post...obviously not too well since i was quite off on the pot odds lol. I'm kind of a nit in these situations, if i had say 30 BB's i'd call, but with 100 BB's im generally more confident in folding and finding safer pots since i have so much room to play with, and even more so in this case cuz i dont have much money invested...then again if the pot is lost we still have 50 BB's...hell i dont know

I don't exactly know how "deep" we are or reads on villains, but with some understanding that we're close to the bubble with a very nice stack, I'd probably pass on this one.

B's range is good, I still can't even give Tehtoe his range on A though, and HighwayStars is nutso. (and i'm not flaming, j/s)

A isn't going to shove QJ or KT/KJ into a bigstack raiser..most people just don't do that. Is Tehtoe/HighwayStar doing that in A's spot? (if you are, ok).

IMO A's range is like 77+ AJ+. Does the math still work? If so i'll accept it and change my answer to call.

Define most people.

EDIT: Running it through Sheets' spreadsheets reshoving KJs/QJs vs someone opening 25% of hands and calling a tightish range is only going to be marginally unprofitable chip EV wise

- I was originally working on 20 BBs
- if anyone is noticing Steve (the OPs) image, they'll know he's a gigantic nitbox.

But anyway, you have 20 + BBs and just because you're against a "Bigstack raiser", it doesn't mean you dont have fold equity and if anything it means in general you should be facing a wider opening range making a wider reshoving range.

For 20 BBs I think you're going to find this is a profitable reshove with something like

44-66+, A8/A9s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs and maybe something like 98s, 87s.

With 24 BBs as it is in the hand I'd probably take out the suited connectors, a couple of the worse broadway hands, and A8/A9s. The small pairs work really well in reshove scenarios, although maybe I'd drop 44 since it doesn't make many straights.

I'd probably end up with something like

55+ AT+ KQ KJs QJs

In reality this is extremely close with that range, and JJ is right on the border - which is way off my initial impression of the hand since I thought TT was a call.

Just did some work on the side pots

If we call, the side pot will be 52k

and the main pot will be 24k + 24k + 24k + 1000 + 100*9 = 73900

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.761% 45.86% 00.90% 334557492 6539778.00 { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 53.239% 52.34% 00.90% 381804456 6539778.00 { JJ }

Which mean's we're calling 26k to win 26k @ .532 equity, which is a chip decision equating to around 27664-26000 = + 1664


For the main pot we're calling off 21.2k to win 52.8k - wBUT we only get a chance to scoop the main pot around 53.2% of the time.

So, using these ranges, since once you win the main pot, Bs range is irrelevant


Hand 0: 60.711% 60.10% 00.61% 821222988 8345550.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 39.289% 38.68% 00.61% 528504504 8345550.00 { 55+, A9s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }


we find

0.468 of the time we are -21200
0.532 * (1-0.60711) = 0.209 of the time we are -21200
0.532* 0.60711 = 0.323 of the time we are + 52800

Overall

0.677 * - 21200 = - 14352.4
0.323 * + 52500 = + 17054.4

= + 2702

Adding this to the + 1664 on the main pot we get

+4366

+4.3 BBs is a pretty decent return on a 50 BB investment, imo.

I may have ****ed up somewhere/there may be some flawed logic. I think this result is probably too +EV but I can't see anythig wrong. I had to use the shitty microsoft calculator so there's a decent chance I made a mistake although scanning through it again, I can't see where.

Short of a high-buyin tourney with only pros in attendance, by "most people" i mean at least the majority of the tourney field.

HighwayStar wrote:

For 20 BBs I think you're going to find this is a profitable reshove with something like

44-66+, A8/A9s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs and maybe something like 98s, 87s.

With 24 BBs as it is in the hand I'd probably take out the suited connectors, a couple of the worse broadway hands, and A8/A9s. The small pairs work really well in reshove scenarios, although maybe I'd drop 44 since it doesn't make many straights.

I'd probably end up with something like

55+ AT+ KQ KJs QJs

In reality this is extremely close with that range, and JJ is right on the border - which is way off my initial impression of the hand since I thought TT was a call.

I have learned a ton from this post, mostly on what my reshoving range should be in this spot as Villain A, given no other serious variables.

Now tell me if you think the average of all villains is going to know all this and reshoves with 55+ AT+ KQ KJs QJs.

Also, when you do these numbers, does it assign an equal likelihood that all the hands in this range are held?

This is like the most fiddly thing ever on sharkscope, so yes, all ranges are equal. Weighting ranges is a factor, but I think a fairly small one.


If you don't think A is going to be reshoving this wide at all, and there are plenty of people who won't, that really screws with the calculation and could very easily make this negative.

I'd guess the border would be somewhere around where we are < 55/56% against his range, although since I don't have a real calculator on me right I'm not testing that theory out.


For what constitutes a profitable reshove with 24 BBs here...I'm not sure exactly. KJs/55/AT are probably about the break -even point, depending on how nitty the opener is. If you're dealing with some spazzy lagtard then 22 and A7s could well become good reshoves.
In reality, you find a lot of people are weak in these spots and raise/folding just far too often so what you believe to be a -EV reshove could easily be +EV because villain could be folding hands like AJ, 88



edit - vs this range which is one you said earlier?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.208% 42.42% 00.79% 396587952 7369890.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 56.792% 56.00% 00.79% 523590252 7369890.00 { JJ }

My instincts tell me you're gonna get owned on the main pot



Also if you honestly think the B is only gonna iso shove QQ+ and AK then you're in a horrendous spot. There are people like this, if I remember correctly, the player in this scenario was not like this.

Ok I have a calculator now, giving A

77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+

and B the same.

So we still have +1664 on the main pot

We are 56.8% against that range

So 0.468 + 0.230 = 69.8% of the time we lose 21200 so therefore 30.2% of the time we win 52500

Which is a -14797.6 + 15855 = + 1058

So STILL a +EV call.

Giving B a tighter range, say TT+ AQ+ and A the range in the post above

We're 46.9% against B

and 56.8 against A

I'm not gonna do the calculation because that is definitely going to be a negative number - around -1200 I'd guess.

Great discussion, thanks for your maffs.

do we have any history with the overshover? If he is straight forward TAG dump it we are screwed. If we know he is mostly TAG but would iso with KQ and AJ i could see a case for a call but it is fringe and optimistic at the very least. As an outsider to your histories here: I think you slightly overvalue his overshoving range but putting hands in the range to hope is there so pokerstove justifies a call. I think with this many chips we wait for a little better spot because we have almost nothing invested and im sure plenty more short stacks will be shoving with the blinds about to go up we can wait to pick some people off. Fringe fold is my vote but this is why i hate tournies things get a little sketchy when you have monster stacks and short stacks involved.

+ EV of what 1K is fringe when our stack is large enough to wait for the blinds to go up and then the blinds makes this a much better ev of basically the same situation and same ranges by virtue of more payoff, right?

funny but why? was my post that bad? # edit probably was so don't answer that on second thought lol

I have been informed, by a more mathematically able friend, that the method I used was almost correct but was missing one logical assumption - but the lack of this logical assumption just means my calculation gave a lower bound on your expected EV in each of the spots.