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Full Version: Ugly Board For A Set In Big Straddled Pot
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > No Limit Texas Hold'em Cash Games
SwolyswoND
Hero has been on a heater at this point, making tons of baby straights/flushes and really has run his stack up to about 350 BBs. I definitely have a LAG image at this point. Villain 1, a good tricky LAG, is on Hero's immediate left and straddling with about $450. Villain 2, a newcomer who I have no reads on, has $233.

Hero is on BB, straddle on. Folds to Villain 2 in MP who limps the $4. One more limp from LP, SB folds. Hero looks down at 9c.gif 9d.gif. Knowing that Villain 1 tends to aggressively play his straddles when its limped to him, Hero just completes the straddle planning to repop Villain 1 if he raises.

Villain 1 does raise the straddle to $20, Villain 2 calls. Hero didn't expect Villain 2 to do this and now unsure about playing 99 oop against two opponents, one of which he has no read on (and realizing how narrow his range looks if he repops now) decides to just call instead now.

Hero checks in the dark, flop comes ad.gif qs.gif jd.gif

Villain 1 checks, villain 2 checks. Sweet, best result I could hope for.

Turn (~$60): 9s.gif

Hero leads for $40, Villain 1 folds, Villain 2 raises to $80 and has $93 behind. Hero wants to cry.

Since the flop checked through, I do think I can include AQ/AJ in villains range. But is this ever a bluff or a really poorly played flush draw (there are two of those now after all)? Do we even consider folding here? Assuming not, is it better to shove now, or flat?
Chet Chetterson
This looks like slow played Aces to me, but I'm used to micro levels where this happens more frequently. I think shoving you will only get called by something that has you beat, so that doesn't seem worth it. Without reads this may even be a fold. Very ugly for sure.
qnshustler
Really Chet? I don't think I could fold this. If you fold you're putting villain on exactly an overset or KT and nothing about his preflop play should make it seem like he has any of those. I would put KT as the most likely but still not likely enough to fold here. AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9 all stronger possibilities, plus other pair/straight/flush draws. I think you should have followed through on your original plan to repop preflop even with the straggler calling the first raise. Here I think shove>>flat>>>fold.
tskillz187
Auto shove.
Dubey
QUOTE (Chet Chetterson @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 1:56 AM) *
Without reads this may even be a fold. Very ugly for sure.




what? no


QUOTE (Tskillz187 @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 1:56 AM) *
Auto Shove


this.



come on guys, don't overthink these things. we have a limp/caller preflop, 3 broadway cards, and we have a set. This is 2-pair like 90% of the time, plus he doesn't even have a full stack. This is a snap-shove and feel good about it when he calls.
KingJames
QUOTE (Dubey @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 7:35 AM) *
come on guys, don't overthink these things. we have a limp/caller preflop, 3 broadway cards, and we have a set. This is 2-pair like 90% of the time, plus he doesn't even have a full stack. This is a snap-shove and feel good about it when he calls.


Yeah
Yoda
Definitely a shove for me too. When donks limp with big pairs and then it gets raised, they are very rarely smooth calling the raise. Their eyes light up and it's like, omg jackpot someone fell for my trap and raised my Aces! K10 is possible, a lot of 2 pairs are more likely. But i'm shoving considering the pot and his stack.
gdaylinz
IMHO, everything about this hand screams slow played aces. If villain has AA, then villain wanted to get a good amount of money in the pot. I think flatting/limping with AQ or AJ would have been a dumb move pf, so you'd expect a raise to narrow the field. However, this villain knows he has your range and the LAG to your left's range dominated with AA, so a flat here makes sense to get you to bluff/bet at it. The check on the flop seals it for me: he's waiting for you to move at the pot when he's got the practical nuts, so he appears weak so you'll move at it. Flopping top set is gin here for slow aces. The min-raise on the turn is a weak play, and it's designed that way. We know he wants to balloon the pot, but villain doesn't want to balloon the pot to the point where you fold a weaker hand. Give up this pot and take down a monster off this donk later.
KingJames
QUOTE (gdaylinz @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 1:56 PM) *
IMHO, everything about this hand screams slow played aces. If villain has AA, then villain wanted to get a good amount of money in the pot. I think flatting/limping with AQ or AJ would have been a dumb move pf, so you'd expect a raise to narrow the field. However, this villain knows he has your range and the LAG to your left's range dominated with AA, so a flat here makes sense to get you to bluff/bet at it. The check on the flop seals it for me: he's waiting for you to move at the pot when he's got the practical nuts, so he appears weak so you'll move at it. Flopping top set is gin here for slow aces. The min-raise on the turn is a weak play, and it's designed that way. We know he wants to balloon the pot, but villain doesn't want to balloon the pot to the point where you fold a weaker hand. Give up this pot and take down a monster off this donk later.


We have no read; 200nl Live; Our image is LAG; We played our hand to make a set, We're behind AA QQ JJ and KT, we crush the rest of our opponents range: shovel

Also, in your sig as far as goals go:

Cash in 10 tourneys on PS is a little vague. How many do you plan to play? Talk about % of ITM finishes or ROI.

Stud HiLo 8 or better: see stud forum and mixed games challenge thread, please post hands and ignite dicussion.

The cubs are helpless
Dubey
edited for meanness.


I will just say that folding here is burning money
BaseJester
His hand looks exactly not like aces to me.

He limp/called preflop. He checks behind on a coordinated flop.

If he has AA, then he's an idiot, imho.
KingJames
Plus villain limp/called preflop

The idea of limping with AA is to raise, not flat call.

We're ahead here waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to often to consider folding!
Dubey
not to mention putting a villain on exactly 1 hand is retarded. Especially when that one hand doesn't even make sense given how the hand was played.

Hand ranges are fun. Even if we include AA QQ JJ in his range, which I wouldn't, we should still shove. Nobody plays big pairs like that.
SwolyswoND
QUOTE (KingJames @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 5:15 PM) *
We have no read; 200nl Live; Our image is LAG; We played our hand to make a set, We're behind AA QQ JJ and KT, we crush the rest of our opponents range: shovel


You forgot one that we're behind James! (Semi-spoiler alert!) icon_biggrin.gif
Gonger
QUOTE (SwolyswoND @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 4:15 PM) *
You forgot one that we're behind James! (Semi-spoiler alert!) icon_biggrin.gif


what was the end result of this hand?

did he have the royal draw and connect?
KingJames
QUOTE (SwolyswoND @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 4:15 PM) *
You forgot one that we're behind James! (Semi-spoiler alert!) icon_biggrin.gif


The ever powerful T8
AimHigher
QUOTE (tskillz187 @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 2:51 PM) *
Auto shove.


This.
mtdesmoines
QUOTE (Dubey @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 4:15 PM) *
folding here is burning money

SwolyswoND
QUOTE (KingJames @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 8:07 PM) *
The ever powerful T8


Bingo bango bongo. I literally shit the bed when he turned his hand over (after I shoved and he called). River got me excited as it was paint, but it was sadly a K.
mtdesmoines
QUOTE (SwolyswoND @ Thursday, July 23rd, 2009, 12:17 AM) *
Bingo bango bongo. I literally shit the bed when he turned his hand over (after I shoved and he called). River got me excited as it was paint, but it was sadly a K.


You usually see aces up here.
Dubey
QUOTE (SwolyswoND @ Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009, 10:17 PM) *
Bingo bango bongo. I literally shit the bed when he turned his hand over (after I shoved and he called). River got me excited as it was paint, but it was sadly a K.



I was actually thinking it was probably T8 since you posted the hand. T8, TK are waaaaaaaaay more likely than any higher set here, but you still played it right, ul turn card for you.
SwolyswoND
QUOTE (Dubey @ Thursday, July 23rd, 2009, 1:57 AM) *
I was actually thinking it was probably T8 since you posted the hand. T8, TK are waaaaaaaaay more likely than any higher set here, but you still played it right, ul turn card for you.


Yeah, I hope people don't think I posted it for it being a bad beat, though. I was genuinely interested to know if the turn was a shove or a call. Folding never entered my mind.
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