My third hand at the table, so no reads on the villian. Two previous hands I picked up 77 and then AA, raising pf both times. Not sure if thats relevant but w/e. I think calling the flop raise is standard, but villian picks up the heat on turn and river. All thoughts appreciated.


http://www.flopturnriver.com/Poker-Hand-Qh...g-CO-791340.php

I don't see many hands at all in his range that you beat here. JJ is possible, maybe QJ. Without a read you can't give him credit for doing this with air. But there are many hands that beat you: AA, KK, QQ, AQ, A7, 87s, 99.

After his flop raise, I did initially put him on 87s, but the overbet on the turn made me think differently. I can rule out QQ+ because most players at this level either reraise pf with high pocket pairs or look for the limp reraise. Smooth calling is rare. I put him on AQ heading to the river, but the shove looked desperate to me, more like his third barrelled attempt at a bluff.

Some of those assumptions don't necessarily hold true at these stakes (I play the same on Tilt). Most players will 3-bet AA and KK but there is much more variation in what players do with JJ, QQ, AK. There are plenty of passive players at these stakes who will flat call rather than 3-bet QQ.

Also, you can't read too much into bet sizes because most players at this level have no clue how to size their bets. Many of them get very excited with big hands and will make big bets that look like desperate bluffs. In my experience only very, very aggressive villains (which are rare at this level) would take this line with a marginal hand, especially given the big river bet. As a general rule, big river bets at these stakes are usually the big hands they represent.

Standard fold with no reads. Don't call a turn ove rbet if you aren't going to call a river over bet imo. They must mean the same thing, right? This is a 7 a lot, a flush draw some of the time and complete air a really small % of the time. I think it's a 7 a bunch though.

I see this thought process a lot in micro stakes: Flop - "I flopped a monster raise small and keep him in" Turn - "Oh shit, don't let him draw to the flush for cheap." River - "Okay flush missed I can shove!"

Flop bet is way too small

As played, I can't find a call, too deep

after a reraise on that flop and second barrel on turn we are looking pretty dead, it would be sick if he did have just a flush draw thou

Are you saying villain's turn bet% = river bet%?

This is another good piece of advice I was reading about recently in an article on micro stakes leaks: calling bets when you're likely to fold to a bet on the next street. I sometimes do this myself - call a bet despite likely drawing thin to see if he'll fire again, and then when he does I figure he has a hand and fold. It's a waste of chips.

This is flawed thinking.
The majority of players do not bet the same percentage of the time on one street as they do on the next street.

A lot of players like to think that if they call a turn bet they must call a river bet on a blank turn, because nothing changed. But in fact, villain's betting range on the turn and villain's betting range on the river are usually two different things.

No, I'm just saying his over bet means the same thing on both streets.

Why would you say that?

Not saying I disagree.

Over bets are not the same as bets and should be treated much differently. Most players only over bet with their nut or near nut hands. So once he over bets I'd be like well I'm done here without a read. If he was a more advanced player and over bet to try and push people off of weak made hands then he would do the same over bet twice. If this guy was good (which I doubt he is) he would see that our hand is pretty face up as a flush draw with no card bigger than a Q or a top pair hand. And he could over bet twice to make us fold our entire range.

Either way, once he over bets he's going for two streets of value or two streets to get us off of our hand. I'd be very surprised for him to check and show complete air once he makes the turn bet.

I agree that villain will usually have very good hand or air here. I'd fold the turn because I don't know what the ratio of nut hands to air is, therefore it's nearly impossible to play the river oop, since we really only have a bluff catcher hand and we don't know how often villain will bluff.

I fold turn or river depending on villains stats.

Yes people bluff the river with a flush draw here, no they don't do it nearly often enough to make it worth calling.

Obviously it's player and situation dependent but what you've said in bold isn't the same thing as what I said. My point was that if you think villain is likely to fire again on the next street, and you would most likely fold to that bet (unless you hit one of your small # of outs), then you should save yourself the money and fold to the first bet.