Temporary Nuts
Saturday, July 11th, 2009, 5:43 PM
QUOTE (CobaltBlue @ Saturday, July 11th, 2009, 9:35 PM)

I think by shoving we're flipping a coin with a slight edge:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.244% 45.94% 01.30% 221837028 6288336.00 { JJ+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 52.756% 51.45% 01.30% 248456028 6288336.00 { QQ }
As we add more pairs (TT/99/88), the edge obviously gets larger. By the time 88 enters the range, we have a 60% edge and really shouldn't be folding.
I dunno, I think it's a little unrealistic to say he'll stack off with AJs and AQo every time or even often. I don't doubt that he'll 4 bet them a good % of the time, but the difference between that and calling a shove with them is huge, and that's where we get the edge in this range from. Sure, we'll win a $5 pot when he folds those hands, but it's not the same as the equity we gain when he calls it off with them.
On the flip side, if we think he'll also 4-bet/fold TT, 99, and 88 we *might* just pick up enough equity to break even.
Also, just because he's been stealing doesn't mean his 4-bet is automagically adjusted to us "defending." It certainly gives us reason to 3bet with more speculative hands, but I don't think it affects his 4bet-call range at all.