PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em $2/$4 (Mixed Hold 'Em) (3-handed)

SB: $440.00 (Cobalt)
BB: $515.00

Cobalt is SB with . Haven't been at the table long. Have played with villain before though. He's aggro and bluffy. This suits him better in the Limit rounds, but he doesn't seem particularly good at NL.

Preflop:
Button folds, Hero raises $10 to $14, BB calls $10

Flop: ($28.00) (2 players)
Hero bets $19, BB calls $19

Turn: ($66.00) (2 players)
Hero bets $48, BB calls $48

River: ($162.00) (2 players)
Hero bets $115, BB raises $319 to $434 and is all-in, Hero ?

Gross. What do you beat here? A bluff and a Q...You've played with villain before, so do you think he'd play a Q like this or would he have raised earlier? Is he capable of a straight out bluff here? I might have check/called river, or bet less as more of a blocker. As played, I fold if I don't know villain but this is very read-dependent.

You're getting a very good price and he's repping a rivered two pair or like 34, so I'd call here. I'd be kind of happy about it if he wasn't good at NL and was bluffy, he might not realize that you can't fold much here.

If he's aggro and bluffy I'd assume that he'd raise flop with all flush draws and oe straight draws, so that's not the scariest card even though he may think it's scary to you. I think he's repping a range he shouldn't have very often and has air balled shit a decent amount and possibly pocket pairs he turned into a bluff.

but if he didn't have a OESD (34 hit, others missed), or a flush draw, what is he doing this with? Some kind of weird double float? I just don't see any non-draw hands that like their hand enough to call the flop and turn, then decide to raise river.

I assume we aren't giving this guy credit for being able to turn a made hand into a bluff on the river? That scenario, as well as a missed OESD are the only two scenarios that I can think of that we beat on the river.

That said, I'm still not sure we should be folding. I think at the table (without the benefit of discussion and retrospect) I'd probably fold, but I also probably would have check/called the river against a bluffy opponent, and IF I did bet against this type of opponent, it would be with the inention of calling a shove (is that confusing enough? lol). What was your reasoning for betting the river cobalt?

This is why I would c/c river

Yeah, upon some reflection I'm not sure if calling is good. It's just hard to come up with hands that he can have. And the made hand into a bluff is really important, which I think given the fact that he's not great at NL isn't likely which makes the pps that I attributed him for bluffing with out the window.

It's interesting, I'd still call though, haha.

Edit: I'm also curious whether Cobalt was blocker betting here, or if he was bet/calling. I'm pretty sure it's a value bet blocker.

yeah, it is weird, because a lot of the flush draws that he could have had also have some sort of combo draw by the turn which I would expect a raise from, so it's hard to put him on a hand. I think he plays 34, 78, and 47 like this,. I'd like it a bit more if the river wasn't a 2.


the more I think about the hand, the less likely a flush is. I think I'd need to know a little more about the opponent to make a correct play. Given the info, I'm still leaning towards folding (though just barely), as in my experience, a typical 'bluffy' opponent is more likely to make his move on the flop or turn. Floating two streets then raising a river that completes 2 out of 4 legit draws isn't the most likely bluffing line, IMO.


edit: 89 is another possibility. peels one with a gut shot, double gutter on turn. reps heart draw on river.

yikes, I'm going back and forth on this hand. We can systematically eliminate most heart draws from his range. And there are 3 legit missed straight draws that he could have.

Would villain raise the river with 2-pair or a set? It's a bit of a scary card for the villain too since you are still firing the 4th barrel despite the heart on board.

his range that beats us breaks down like this:

2-pair/set hands are unlikely here since the 2 rarely makes a second pair and he'd raise before the river with other 2p/set hands. and I'm not 100% convinced that he'd raise the river with all of shi 2-pair hands.


Flush is unlikely because something like 75% of all possible flush holdings have either a sd + fd or a pair + fd by the turn. (pulled that 75% out of my ass, but I quickly ran through all the combos in my head and most of them are raising the turn or flop, or folding preflop)

Straight is unlikely, unless he as 34



Long story short, I think I'm changing my answer to CALL. But I still like a check/call line better. Or a smaller bet to induce a spaz.

Yea, put another +1 in for c/c river. That's exactly what I was thinking when I read it

I agree with a lot of the points made.

I call with AxAh.

I lay down KxKh, as there are so many more AhXh hands that villain could play like this.

c/cing river is pretty bad here. I'd c-c if the flush draw missed, also 4-3 just got there.

There's plenty of value in betting out here imo, and I don't mind folding here. I'd like slightly more than 2:1 to make this call.

Typically, I'd agree with you. However, against an opponent described as 'bluffy' and 'not very good', I think c/c is the better line. I'm open to hear your arguments otherwise.

If we check, this guy is probably betting most of his range, and probably checking behind his Qx hands. We can profitably call his bet because he is bluffing a lot of the time. If we bet, he is folding a lot of the made hands that we beat, raising most of the range that beats us, calling with a small range of made hands that we beat, and raising a good deal of his missed draws. If we do bet, it can't be a bet/fold line against this kind of opponent, IMO.

As for folding/calling as played. look at the board and go through every possible flush draw combo. How many are a.) calling preflop and b.) not raising at some point in the hand prior to the river? very, very few.

You need to widen those flush draw combos a lot because it's 3 handed and this is BVB. It would not surprise me in the least if villains preflop range here is nearly any two cards.

Also, I know a lot of bluffy opponents who are incapable of constructing a huge bluff shove on the river. I think I'd be more willing to call a villain described as good who is bluffy, rather than a bad one in this spot.

well, even if we include ALL heart draws, most of them are raising the flop or turn.

here we go:
KhJh - possible
KhTh - raises turn
Kh9h - raises turn
Kh8h - possible
Kh7h - possible
Kh6h - raises flop
Kh4h-kh3h - possible

JhTh - raise turn
Jh9h - raise turn
Jh8h - raise turn
Jh7h - possible
Jh6h - raises flop
Jh4h-3h - possible

Thxh - raises turn

9h8h - raise flop
9h7h - raises flop
9h6h - raises flop
9h4h-3h - possible

8h7h - raises flop
8h6h - raises flop
8h4h - raises flop
8h3h - possible

7h6h - raises flop
7h4h - raises flop
7h3h - raises flop

6hxh - raises flop

4h3h - raises flop

and this is assuming he isn't raising flop with the non combo heart draws which might be a bit of a stretch too.

2.6:1?

pot is 636 to call is 244 if my calculations are right. It looks a little worse than it is because villain shoves for more than Cobalt has. Which is actually a good play to do because it makes calculating on the spot a bit more difficult.

It's also a fallacy to get caught into thinking the opponent will always play draws the way you do, or that he will play it the same way every time.

Also I really disagree that 10x hearts decides to raise the turn all that often.

I'm not saying this is always a flush either, I'm just saying I don't think this is a great spot for *one* pair. Do you honestly think less than two pair makes up 33% of his range here? I'd like to hear one suggestion besides a funky played AQ or KQ that really fits that description? 8-7 maybe?

Ooooh whoops, that does change things a bit. Skews it a little more towards a call. Thanks I missed that

Results?

he probably folded and cursed life

you know after thinking about it it doesn't seems to be a pure bluff but what about a misplay of a set? 10's makes sense except fot the turn call. Maybe he though since you are value betting that he makes more from flatting and inducing a river bet from you idk weird hand and yah some kind of flush makes sense but just floating a different angle. Did you fold because i think u do?

Don't ask Cobalt what his action is. After we get done making ourselves look like fish he will post results, a reasoning that will make us go "OF COURSE", smack our foreheads, and find out we got leveled in some way and he just wanted to figure out what semi-thinking donks would do.

Cobalt is the BB ldo.

flip a coin I guess

there's little to say except: is he bluffing enough to make a call profitable. I'd think no, others may disagree

I like the line, going for 3 streets, though as some others have said a fine alternative is to c/c the river and encourage him to turn his made hands into bluff, to value bet w/worse, or to go for an outright steal. sucks when he shoves though

In this case, I am the SB. I just neglected to fully edit out 'Hero'.

To go into my thinking a bit more, I really really expect him to raise the flop or turn with a flush draw or set/two pair. I somewhat expect him to do that with 43 also...though he might flat that more often than the flush draws. Since I think his hand is very rarely a draw, I expect it to be one pair a lot. I think he'd check most of those behind. I'd already shown an ability to barrel off in the previous Limit round with air, so I was trying to induce a hero call. Obviously, I didn't expect the shove...mostly cause his line made no sense in my mind.

This thought occurred to me right off the bat too, as a possibility. I've seen sets played like this...It would be poorly played and strange if villain is typically aggressive anyway, but maybe he was trying to play it sneaky or vary his play, idk. Not a strong possibility but I'd def consider it a small one. I think all the talk about flush and straight draws and assuming he would always have raised earlier in the hand with a flush draw and some kind of straight draw is pretty valid, but again, everyone is capable of mixing up their play a bit and maybe he decided to just call with a pretty good draw (flush+gutshot?) because he didn't give hero credit for an overpair and thought he could steal it at the river. All we have is a bluff-catcher, yeah there is a decent chance he's bluffing but with what I really don't know. Pot odds are pretty good...meh its a closer call than I originally thought too...I think I still fold in the hand but am not happy about it.

Cobalt never folds.

I tanked and called. He had 75o for a pair turned into a bluff.