Ok, one more from recent live play $1/2.

1 limper to me. I have KK.

I make it $12.
SB who is drinking heavily and has gone through about $500 in the last hour in reloads calls.
Limper calls.

Flop is 679 rainbow.

Checked to me /w $38 in the pot. I bet $30.
SB thinks for a while, hems and haws and decides to call. Pot is $98
Limper re-raise shoves for $110 more. Pot is $238.

I have about $100 behind. SB has about $90 behind.

Read on the SB is that he's drawing to something. An 8 is certainly in his range. Read on the original limper is less clear as he's fairly new to the table and hasn't really played many hands to this point.

instacall

yep, you can be up against many draws and no one's stack is big enough, considering pot, that you should really consider folding.

Hmm, really? I can see SB being on a draw, but what kind of reasonable draw does the limper have? A8 is the only non-gutshot, and though I can believe that, isn't it -EV to call here putting opponent on only 1 hand we can beat? 66, 77, 99 are all possible.

Ehhhh I guess it depends very much on your read on the limper, how has he been playing, and also how have you been playing, whats your image, is he aware of it, etc...I think in a vacuum though its a call.

EDIT: also add A9 and 88 as easily villains range IMO, cd.

C/R a preflop raiser and another caller is pretty strong... but he's a drunk spewtard

I'd get it in

Also, as we normally talk about in 1/2 live games, raise more preflop

As for raise more preflop, I think this is sort of table dependent. Through the week, 10-12 was the norm. There was the occasional 16, and the once-in-a-blue-moon 20-25, but I want action on this hand. Raising to $16 and having everyone fold is pointless. I already had KK twice at this table prior, bet $12 and 0 callers the first time, 1 caller the second time.

Right, if the table is doing $12 that's cool

Could he be employing a C/R squeeze play assuming that SB could be showing up with anything here, making it a profitable move for him with any hand vs. your C/B and his drunkness. Honestly, I feel like he's set mined successfully.....but he could easily be making a play with any 8, pocket 8s, A9, 89, 87, 86.

I dunno, I could possibly fold this. But 100 to win 328....or 418 if you believe SB is coming along for the ride. Obv not too worried about SB, unless his "hem and haw" had any feel to a drunk guy trying to act while holding teh nuts. So you'd welcome this money aboard.

I think you gotta call considering the depth of the stacks.

I think you have to call. I think you're seeing 10's-JJ's or 98 etc here enough to make this a profitable call. Anyone have the math on this? (pokerstove, etc)

I think TT-QQ is raising this pot before we ever even get involved pre.

Most of the time but there are times where I see people sit on 10's or J's pf, see a safe flop and go bonkers with it. I've seen it more than once.

I dunno, it's very possible to be crushed on this flop but I'd like to see some math. I don't see how calling with KK is hugely -EV, correct me if i'm wrong.

I couldn't agree more on both points. Especially lately in live 1/2 games I've seen limps with TT or JJ SURPRISINGLY often, like everyone except me just got a memo that this is the new way to play them preflop.

I agree with you guys. But I still think "surprisingly" often is less than 50%; all told with players in mid position holding TT/JJ with no action behind. SoI still don't think you still really credit them as possible hands when running the math. Using math, they would be discounted by half if I ran them in with the range, and IMO even more than that.

And I think this is probably a big enough deal because I bet the difference between including TT/JJ and not including them in the range makes a material difference in the EV.

Like I say, I typically call here, all things being equal, because of the size of stacks behind. But I'm gritting my teeth because I'm either waaaaaaaay down or still working to fade.

But if they're limpers with TT or JJ, they've still got the c/r allin move in them on the flop? Maaaaaybe with 1010.

I don't think calling is terrible and this is probably pretty close, but honestly, A9 and 88 from the preflop limper just call the flop action too, not c/r allin. You're definitely getting shown two pair or a set here.

So, the % that we're behind the preflop limper + the amount of times we lose against TP/TK and an OESD (since we have to think stuck SB is gonna play with an oesd) makes me not want to lose another $100.

I also think there's a notable population of passive players that will limp with 1010 but raise with JJ....this sucks and makes it suckier that we have no preflop-play read on villain.

I need math to back this up, I don't believe you lol.

I had no reason to believe the drunk guy was acting. 88 or a set were the hands I gave the limper.

For whatever reason, I felt 88 was the one, and decided to call.

SB calls behind.

Limper had 99
SB had JT (gutshot)

Turn 3, river 8 (SB wins).

I felt the call was stupid as soon as I made it, but some people here have given reasonable reasons to make it.

Bad luck, I still think all the reasons to call are valid and would make that call just about anyday.

Are the reasons not to call invalid? I don't think so.

And OP, I guess " at least you weren't the limper". Couldn't even fade 6 post flop outs to stack two players.

I think the conclusion here should be that there's no way you are going to be ridiculed for making this call.....but the lesson here is that you are probably down at this point majority of the time unless you can truly get a read on your villian to put him on pair card/8, or even a naked 8 if a very aggro player. Im pretty sure it's fact that 1/2 live plays infinitely tighter than it's online counterpart. So I think this play relies heavily on the analysis of your villian, and short of that the gut. I'm still curious as fade noted how the math sees this. I still contend TT JJ are not viable in the range here the majority of the time. Granted you are getting 2.x:1 on your money to make the call, plus if you reasonably assume (correctly here) that drunky mc drunk is going to stack off behind, it increases greatly. THAT is why I probably would struggle and then make the call in the end when push comes to shove, but gravely fearing that limper has me beat....and just hope it's a two pair rather than a set to get some added outs, even though the set clearly makes the most sense.

I enjoyed this question though. Good stuff. Sry you got massacred on that flop.

No, they are, IMO the reasons to call just slightly outweigh them though. It is close, obv.


I probably explained poorly before, but I also think JJ/TT are a small part of range, I didn't mean to say I think they are likely, just another small possibility. And yeah its a puke call..one that I still would make most of the time, but wouldn't be happy about it any of those times, if that makes sense.

Cool, beyond that first line wasn't directed right to you, just a continued affirmation of my thoughts of the TT/JJ FWIW.
My thought is that if TT/JJ are "small" possibilities, then you'd be corrupting your mathematical analysis to consider them in a run of potential holdings. Not necessarily relevant in this hand with the stacks behind and $IP, but if you deepen the stacks enough in this situation, the consideration and weight placed on TT/JJ would definitely make a material difference IMO.