This year's tour should be awesome. Tons of drama and the race hasn't even started. It reminds me a lot of the 86 tour.

Will Armstrong win number 8?

Make your picks:

Pick your top 3 in General Classification?

Who will win the green jersey?

Who will win the polka dot jersey?

Who will win the white jersey?

Who will win the prologue?

Top 3
1. Contador
2. Armstrong
3. Menchov

Green Jersey
1. Boonen

Climber's Jersey
1. Moncoutie


White Jersey
1. Martin


Winner of Stage 1
1. Contador

wow no evans in the top 3?

The reason why I did not put Evans in the top 3 is because he team is so bad. He could lose up to 2 minutes in the TTT against Astana, Columbia and Saxo Bank. Also, he has very little support in the mountains.

After stage one you get a better indication of where the riders are at. I see Evans in 4th or 5th.

Menchov shit the bed and lost over a minute and half. He'll be lucky if he cracks the top 5.

Contador rode the perfect race. Kloden also looked excellent. Spartacus looked awesome. On fire. Could keep the Jersey until the first big mountains which is bad for Andy Schleck.

I think Levi and Lance made a tactical error going earlier in the day and it cost each of them a 'few' seconds.

A podium sweep is a real possibility and Lance isn't one of the three.

**** Tomorrow's stage********

One for the sprinters. It looks like a Cavendish day for sure. His team is riding exceptionally well.
I don't think anyone will get in his way.

A group of about 4 riders will get off the front. They will get caught with about 15 KM to go.

1. Cavendish
2. Boonen
3 Hushovd

Would like to see Tyler on Garmin do well but I think his nerves will get the best of him.

Top 3:

1. Contador
2. Leipheimer
3. A Shleck

Green Jersey:

Cavendish

Polkadot Jersey:

Gesink

Young Rider:

A Schleck

Fantastic time trial by Cancellara yesterday

Nice finish by Cavendish today

Not gonna pretend to know enough to predict stage outcomes, but I think Astana, led by Contador, is going to give everyone a very difficult time. They have something to prove after not participating in last year's Tour. Sastre will, of course, be a factor in the mountains, as will Astarloza, but Contador should be able to keep them in sight. The Schleck brothers will be a ton of fun to watch, as will Lance's progress.

Overall, it's such a massively talented field, it's hard to predict outcomes.

With Alessandro Petacchi not in the race and Tom Boonen not participating in today's sprint Cavendish was pretty much a lock.

Tyler Farrar rode really well. Lead out man Julian Dean didn't an awesome job of delivering him on Cavendish's wheel but Cavendish's lead out train was so strong (Kudos to Renshaw and Hincapie) nobody had a shot.

Stage 3 will be another one for the sprinters. Cavendish is riding so strong that Columbia will let another group of 4 to 6 riders get off the front (at least 2 will be french riders) - then the field will reel them in with 10k to go and we'll see the same thing all over again. The only way a break will succeed is if Columbia wants to save themselves for the TTT (a real possibility as they have sort of thing going on with Garmin and Astana.) Quick Step and Milram might want to lead the chase.

1. Cavendish
2. Farrar
3. Thor Hushovd


Nothing big will happen with the major general classification riders. The big day will be Tuesday. If you get the chance check out the team time trial. It's one of the most beautiful things to watch in cycling.

cavs is gonna win 6 stages this year. he is far too strong for everyone else when it comes to the sprint. as much as i love that he is destroying people, it makes for a pretty boring 1st week. cant wait until this thing gets into the mountains!

Wow, stage 3 was just awesome.

You think it's going to be about the sprinters and the wind mucks up things.


It could not have gone any better for Columbia and Astana. If Garmin and Silence did not chance the gap could have easily reached two minutes.

Columbia-HTC won the stage and had 8 guys in the break of 27. You couldn't play it any better. Cav was awesome AGAIN!

Also Astana benefited greatly with Lance in the break. He rode smarter than any of the other GC riders.

It's good for Contador too. He's still the man to beat but they have another card to play in Lance.


The team time trial is going to be awesome tomorrow.

I think the order of the top 5 will be:

1. Astana
2. Columbia
3 Saxo bank
4 Garmin
5. Liquidgas

This day will be big for Evans and Menchov as well. They have to limit their loses if they want to be sitting on the top step.

Tomorrow is going to be wicked fun.

The only problem i see with todays time trial is that none of the Astana riders will lose any time on each other. The GC could conceivably be 1. Armstrong 2. Contador 3. Kloden 4. Leipheimer by this evening.

I would be shocked (not surprised) if this were to happen. I don't think Saxo Bank will give up :40 seconds. They have a strong team too.

I think that Cancellara will be in yellow after today. Armstrong in second Contador in 3rd Martin in 4th Kloden and Kloden rounding out the top 5. Which is perfect for Astana.

Silence Lotto had to do a lot of work yesterday. I think they may lose 3 minutes.

You almost got it nailed. Cancellera was super strong but Astana is just stupid. They've got 5 in the top 7.

Tomorrow looks like another day for Cav-o

yep, with the crosswinds they are getting its almost impossible for a breakaway to stay out all day at the moment. i expect this one to go down like mondays stage - but without the split in the pelaton. cant see cav getting beaten though it'd be nice if boonen or friere were to at least feature!

Just read Armstrong's Twitter page. Apparently, Thor used to live in the area and wants to win today's stage bad.

He also predicted a field sprint. I think the other teams need to do something different. Cav and Columbia too good.

One of the other teams need to launch an attack 1k from the finish.

Columbia doesn't care about the GC they want the green and stage wins.

Also has 4 wicked strong riders. Miller, Vande Veld, Dave Z, and Wiggins. They were impressive yesterday.

The Mountains!

The tour starts today!


Will Armstrong get yellow?


I don't think so.

I think Contador asserts himself.


Going to be a beautiful day!

GC after today


1. Contodor
2. Armstrong
3. Kloden
4. Levi
5. Martin

You should have used a capital "A" for Asserts. He pulled away and made it look like everyone else was standing still. Pretty crazy ride by the young Frenchman. That could very well be the career highlight for that guy.

Some triathletes are such pansies. Everyone is complaining about the 2 mile 4% and 2 mile 2% grade in my event on Sunday.

The helicopter view of that climb today was stunning.

contador was very impressive but i kinda wish armstrong was on a different team because he didnt look in trouble at all, played the good team mate role and let marked evans and schleck all the way. i have a feeling if contador crashes or something, we will see armstrong dominate

also a quick word for bradley wiggins, incredible ride from him yesterday - score another one for the brits!

Contador was impressive but he attacked his team that was riding tempo. You could tell that Levi was a little annoyed but to AC's credit he's two seconds up on Armstrong so if the Yellow jersey falls off it goes on his shoulder not Armstrong's.

The race is really shaping up to be an Astana show. Today's stage was sort of a joke. When Andy Schleck attacked the first four riders to react were Armstrong, Levi, Contator and Klodi. The team is SO strong. Haimar Zubeldia finished FIFTH in the tour and is fetching water bottles.

I heard that Schleck put in an the attack so that Astana would get the jersey. But Astana neutralized the attack then slowed the pace so much that the yellow jersey was able to catch back on.

If Astana wanted the jersey, the gas would not have been left off.

Tomorrow is another day in the mountains but there's like 30 miles to the finish.

I see another break getting away and staying away. I would not be surprised if Astana let's another rider go up the road and take the jersey.


As for Wiggo, Garmin is riding really well. He and Vande Velde were there at the end again. They both have a shot a top 10.


The drama is just getting started. This year's tour is more about what's happening off the bike as well as on.

Could this be 1986 all over again?

Actually, I would love it if Levi won and made Lance and AC work for him. That would indeed be poetic justice but I don't see that happening.

you really know your shit man, good job. where do you go for most of your cycling related news?

Thanks. I've been a huge fan forever.

The best places to go for English speakers are:

cyclingnews.com (although they just re-skinned their site and it sucks.)
velonews.com (not as good but they do fairly good job)

livestrong.org has some cool vids too.

Also a lot of the riders are on twitter. (Armstrong does the most updates)

Today's stage was a real sleeper. The mountains were too far from the finish.

The rest day should be interesting. 1 day no races - lots of stories about Contador VS Armstrong

Also the 'no radios' for two stages should be very interesting. about 15 teams don't like the radio ban. I'm sure the ones that don't care are the French Teams.

i didnt hear about the ban - what happened there?

It's the French trying to bring the race back to the 'good old days'. Team Motorola in 1991 brought radios into cycling and ever since the riders have become robots. They are great for the Team Directors because they can better instruct their riders and point out anything dangerous that might be happening up the road.

But they also killed the creativity on the road. No longer can a break get 5 minutes up the road without everyone knowing who is in the break and what kind of threat they are to the other teams.

Some say that cycling has lost some of it's passion/bravado because now it's so regimented. Nothing is 'freelanced' any more. Riders don't have to be tactical they can leave it up to their directors.

I think it's a novel idea and I think they it could spice up the race. But I think the only thing it will do is cause mass confusion. I don't think it's fair to the teams to take part in this experiment in the final week of the tour - the most important week in cycling.

If the ASO (that's the french company that controls the tour) wanted to give this experiment a go they should have first tried it out in one the smaller races that they control like Paris-Nice or the Dauphine Libere.

But it's going to happen so it might be very very interesting.

I'm sure there is going to be a rider protest - Not sure what it will be.

Lance is big voice. He's been gone for 4 years but he's still the patron (boss) in the peloton.

I know nothing about this. Does Lance still have a chance?

He's 8 seconds off the lead, if that means anything. It's still early and Astana seem to have some internal conflicts, but Lance has a chance, that's for sure.

Armstrong is definitely a contender for the overall. He's sitting 8 seconds back. Normally that would be considered the ideal position but with Contador 6 seconds back, confusion reigns. Astana clearly has the two strongest riders in the race and I think it's safe to say that they have 4 of the top 8.

Nothing really big will happen until next Saturday when the teams hit the Alps. That being said, there could be another split on the flats due to windy conditions. However, I don't see that happening. Astana doesn't want the jersey until the last week.

The team dynamic on Astana is fascinating. Cycling is unlike most sports. It's a team sport but individual goals may be different.

As of today, Contador clearly has the edge physically, but Armstrong has a huge advantage in the psychological department. For one, he has a killer instinct. Lance won't just knock you down, he'll step on your throat as he goes by. Alberto doesn't have that.

If Contador doesn't have a clear advantage before the final time trial, the race dynamic could become one awesome cluster ****.

Lance could have the yellow jersey going into the final climb of the tour - Mont Ventoux - by tradition it would be Contador's role to protect the yellow jersey but since it's by far the hardest climb in France, Contador could win the tour on that stage alone - he is that strong. So what will happen? It could be drama on the first order.

The other curious thing to watch is if there is a division within Astana where will the support riders go. There are 9 riders

CONTADOR can count on Paulino for sure and perhaps Zubeldia because he's Spanish (but he's also Basque so not 100%.)

ARMSTRONG clearly has Leipheimer in his corner as well as Popovych.

I think Kloden has his own ambitions. Muravyey will do whatever the team tells him to do an Rast is Swiss so I'm sure he'll be neutral.

And Brunyeel, the team director, clearly wants Armstrong to win his 8th tour.




***** Cliff Notes******
Armstrong - Yes, an 8th tour is a real possibility

another great analysis, nice work. plus this part cracked me up. personally i'd love to see lance win it again, would be an awesome story especially after he said he could easily beat all the guys in the tour whilst he was retired.

Wild you don't think Levi has his own ambitions and would try to win the tour as well?

I believe both Levi and Kloden have their own ambitions but on the pecking order they are way down. I think the only way they get to be players in the overall is if they A) Get in to break that gets several minutes on the field Have a massive time trial while the others fail.

Sunday's stage was very telling. Astana had burned off their 'helpers' so Kloden and Levi had to go to the front and ride tempo. This is huge.

Also, I don't think Levi can pull it off on the biggest stage. When he has made it on to the podium there's was always a team leader in front of him. In 2001 he finished 3rd at the Tour of Spain but Roberto Heras was the team leader. In 2007 he finished 3rd at the Tour (he could have won but he was second fiddle to Contador.)

This year at the Tour of Italy he was the designed team leader but he faltered when it mattered most. He had a chance to take the pink jersey on the super long TT but came up short. After that the wheels came off. Also Armstrong rode for Levi building him some loyalty.

One thing in Levi's favor is that he always rides better in the Alps than the Pyrenees. This year the Pyrenees were a bit of yawn this year but the Alps have mountain top finishes so it should be interesting. Levi is more of slow motor while Contador and Lance to a lesser extent can make violent attacks that can leave the field gasping for breath.

Tuesday stage will be another one for the sprinters.

Another group of 4-6 riders (once again minimum of two Frenchmen) will get off the front and get caught 10k from the finish (6 miles) from there the field will wind up.

I think Cav will will again. Look for Thor to finished 2nd and Oscar to finish 3rd. I think Columbia is giving up on the GC - even though Tony Martin is in the top 10.

You might also see Tom Boonen near the front. His Quick Step team has hand a horrible tour so far. Apparently, he started the race with a stomach virus and horrible case or the runs.

Wednesday will be the same as Tuesday. A minimum of two Frenchmen in the break.


The break may get more time on the field (they've got their radios back) but I think we are in store for another field sprint with Cav taking it again.

Yesterday Colombia had all their players take part in the chase both Martin and Kirchen helped reel the break back in.


1. Cav
2. Tyler
3. Thor

Nothing in the GC unless there is a crash.

Wild, could you explain to me as to why the leaders do not attack on flat stages, whereas the tour is always decided on mountains?

The easy answer - the flat stages aren’t hard enough. They don’t cause the all-important selections. Unless there is a crash or the race separates due to the wind the flat stages don’t pose a big threat to the GC riders (general classification - the guys going for the yellow jersey).

When the wind whips up as it did on stage 3 riders form ‘echelons’ a sort of protection from the wind. If it is super windy and the riders in the first echelon are motivated the rest of the field could lose 2 or 3 minutes.

That’s not to say that general classification (GC) riders can’t lose minutes but for the most part the flat stages are more for the sprinters (green jersey) or the escape artists.

To win a single stage at the Tour de France can make a rider’s career (especially if you’re French). It’s the equivalent to scoring a touchdown at the Super Bowl.

The key stages are the ‘mountain’ stages and the time trials. Time trials are called the ‘race of truth’ because it’s you against the clock and there’s no place to hide. The strongest riders always give 100% effort.

The mountain stages are important too because the courses are so steep. You might lose a few seconds on a flat stage but you could lose 10 minutes on a mountain top finish.

Also, keep in mind that if you have the ‘Yellow jersey’ it is sort of unwritten rule that your team has to chase any breakaway that gets away during the day’s stage. Your opposition can sit in while you or your teammates burn energy.

Currently, Contador and Lance sit 6 and 8 seconds back from the race leader. That’s the perfect position to be in. Team Astana will assert their dominance the final week of the tour. But who will be in yellow?

I think that's kind of a silly thing for Lance to say, because the TdF is very much a team sport and no one man can win it without lots of help.

He apologized for him remarks but what he's doing is pretty remarkable.

I think he cracked on the field last year because 3 of the top 6 riders were not in the race (levi, contador and klocen)

Both Vande Velde and Sastre before last year were strong riders but were never considered true contenders for the overs.

I still think Contador is going to win but if Lance lands on the podium he's got to win comeback athlete of the year. Saturday can not get here fast enough.

Tomorrow is an excellent day to call in sick.

If you can't, go here (http://www.steephill.tv/) to get a live feed of the tour anywhere in the world



You might know the other guy in the video

http://www.livestrong.com/lance-armstrong/...1-e47ae2ae3ebd/

great link thanks man. i feel like the tour finally gets going tomorrow - its been the cav show thus far and he's still looking good for my prediction of 6 stage wins.

Levi is out.

Pure disappointment.

Disappointment because he was 4th overall and a contender or because he is a puss and won't ride with a broken bone in his hand?

yeah, I'm sure it wouldn't be very comfortable, but this is the biggest race of the year made even bigger by the return of Lance. Suck it up butter cup.

Disappointed because he had to drop out. He had a chance to podium and possibly win.

I would never crack on anyone who drops out because of an injury.

I broke my collarbone while racing. I tried to ride a week later and the pain was unbearable.

Even if it was a hairline fracture, it's hard to race in the mountains because you're always pulling up on the handlebars.

Today was another day of negative racing. When was the last time a rider gained time after a cat 2 climb? From 4 minutes to nearly 7?

Hopefully something will happen on Sunday. The drama has been way better than the race.

Usually when you have rider like Lance or Contador you set your guys at the front and ride such a hard tempo you burn the other riders off until there are like 3 or 4 guys left then the leader attacks.

But when you've got 2 of the strongest guys on the same team - marking each other the race dynamic changes. Such a strange race.

I too broke my collarbone....wish it happened during something as sexy as a race. Instead it was getting broadsided by an ignorant driver. I worked in a warehouse slinging boxes for a week before I went to the doc. I was in the aero bars a couple of weeks later. Sure it wasn't comfortable.

If it was the tour when I have a chance to podium you can bet your ass I would not give up the day after it happened. He has to at least give a try imo. Can understand if he is unable to get any meds for it.

Would the injections for pain be considered a PED?

When I broke my collarbone I went to the ER. The doctor was a total yardbird. He put the figue 8 (to those who don't know that's the sling you wear when you break your collarbone) backwards. I was there with a couple of friends and they were the ones who knew it was wrong no one at the ER. (I was too doped up to noticed)

Actually, an injection would be considered a PED. About 10 years ago a rider got a bee sting in his eye. It ballooned up so much he couldn't see. If he took an injection of cortisone it would have resulted in a positive test. He had to drop out of the tour de france - his name was Jonathon Vaughters - current owner of Team Garmin-Slipstream.

the coverage is tilting me today - it seems they are jumping between groups way more than normal. go bradley!

So does this stage mean that Lance will probably not be winning, or trying to win the tour? The announcers kept saying he was "defending", I just don't think he could counter the attacks that were being handed out. Or is he still waiting for the Alps? Oh, and Contador is an absolute beast.

Yes, yes, yes, no, yes

Great stage

Contador was an animal and deserved the yellow.
Wiggins rode an excellent race, as did
Sastre (recovering from the early part of the climb was a testament to his strength),
The Schleck bros are a force
Cancellara! Wow! Nice ride!

Love the shake up in the standings

Got distracted...maybe more comments to come

Today was the day that told us who are the pretenders. And they were everyone NOT named Alberto.

He was awesome. He showed why he is the strongest. If you can attack from the front it basically says, I'm going - follow me if you can. Nobody could.

Believe it or not Armstrong rode well and might ride better now that the pressure is off. I think he will try and win either Mt Ventoux or the time trial. Also, don't be surprise if he attacks. But he still won't win.

Wigg-o and Andy Scleck rode well but were on the second tier.

An Astana sweep is still possible.

The drama is over and the race is over too. Contador only needs to follow Andy Schleck.

Wiggo can't attack in the mountains and everyone else is too far back on time.

Why would Lance join Astana then? When clearly Alberto, with his age and skill, was going to be a better rider than Lance? Lance is obviously still a strong rider, who could compete for the yellow jersey. I don't understand why he'd a join team with someone who has as much or now, by the looks of it, more skill than him.

One or reason or should I say one person: Johan Bruneel, manager of Team Astanta.

Johan was Lance's manager/coach during his 7 tour wins. Johan was the first one even before Lance to believe he could win the Tour. If you take a step back, it's really one of the most successful partnerships in sports. They built a template that allowed them to win 7 tours.

If you have few minutes check out this documentary: The Road to Paris

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qsPcmVHifM

Also leading up to the Tour, there were rumors Alberto wanted to leave Astana. But Johan would not let it happen. He is too smart.

Your knowledge of cycling never ceases to amaze me. Great documentary as well.

i watched the full documentary last night. really good stuff but i'd like to have seen a little more race action. really does show how much of an animal lance is when it comes to work ethic. his interview near the end when he is talking about heras and what he can do to improve is maybe the most interesting insight into the pysche of lance - its reasonable to say that he expects people to do all the same things he does but most riders dont and thats why he is a 7 times champ.

great link, thanks. anything else worth watching?