Devilkin
Friday, May 20th, 2005, 8:45 AM
QUOTE (Diboss)
Let's say you're in an unraised pot on the button wit 9s 7s and the flop has two spades, nothing paired. So you have a solid flush draw. What do you do if a player bets the pot? Does it make a difference in a tourney/cash game? I can make this more specific if necessary. The point is, how many are willing to call a flush draw getting bad odds to hit the flush on the next card?
Tourney or cash game?
Position?
Chipstack size of me and my opponent?
If in tourney, what stage?
How many in the hand?
Too many variables here to make a solid judgement play. Generally I don't chase flush-only hands heads up. If I had a flush draw, along with a pair, or an outside straight draw, then I'm interested.
Example:
On the button, mid tourney stage. Average sized chipstack compared to the table.
I have K

9

- limped in with four limpers before me.
Flop comes 9

2

10

, so I have second pair and a flush draw. My outs are:
Three Kings (to make two pair)
Two Nines (trips)
Nine spades (flush)
First person bets pot, folded around to me. Do I stay or do I go?
(9+3+2)/47 = 30% chance on the turn that Ill significantly improve my hand. Add in slightly lower numbers for the river card, and Im almost 60% that Ill improve my hand to something that has a good chance winning.
If Im flush alone, the odds are 9/47 or 19%. See how huge of a difference having a second type of 'out' makes in a hand? THAT kind of thing makes a very large difference whether you should play the pot or not.
Dev