they got orton and two first rounders. sucks to be denver fan imo

I'm so glad my Skins didn't get him, I woulda probably had to endure another "The Skins win the Superbowl of March/April" thread lol. Gotta love the Dan Snyder haters lol.

Anyway, if Denver can draft wisely in 09-10 they easily got the better end of this deal.

It certainly isn't as large as some other trades when it comes to the number of bodies and draft picks exchanging hands, but when it comes to one player's future value, the Jay Cutler deal may be the biggest trade in NFL history. Here's why:

The rest of this analysis is available exclusively to ESPN Insiders. Insider

Other first-round quarterbacks were traded early in their careers, but never after they had already proved themselves to be quality starters. Eli Manning and John Elway forced their way out of town before they even took the field. Tommy Maddox was drafted to be Elway's backup and was sent to the Rams after two years when it was clear Elway wasn't going anywhere and Maddox wouldn't take a pay cut. Steve Walsh was a first-round supplemental pick in 1989, but of course the Cowboys that same year used the first overall pick in the regular draft on another quarterback, Troy Aikman. When Aikman clearly beat out Walsh for the starting job, the Cowboys dealt him to New Orleans.

Getty ImagesMore Montana than Majkowski.

Perhaps the most similar first-rounder was Jeff George, who also had personality issues to go with his big, strong arm, but the four seasons before Indianapolis traded him to Atlanta were nowhere near as good as Cutler's first three years. Cutler had more passing yards and touchdowns last year than George had in his final two seasons in Indianapolis combined.

Pro Bowl quarterbacks have been traded before, of course -- in fact, one was traded just last year -- but Pro Bowl quarterbacks don't get traded this young. Brett Favre was almost 40 years old. So was Warren Moon when the Oilers dealt him to the Vikings in 1994. John Hadl was traded twice after making the Pro Bowl in two straight seasons, but he was in his mid-30s. Until Cutler, no quarterback under the age of 30 had ever been traded after a season with at least 20 passing touchdowns.

Based on Football Outsiders' advanced defense-adjusted yards above replacement stats (explained here), Cutler was one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL last season. He holds very little if any blame for Denver's 8-8 record and late-season collapse. Cutler was the only full-time starting quarterback who didn't have a single game below replacement level in 2008. Denver was losing games because its defense was horrible. Our DVOA ratings go back to 1994, and over the past 15 seasons, the only defense to play worse belonged to the 2008 Lions.

Conventional stats may give you an even better glimpse of just how good Cutler is compared with other young quarterbacks of recent vintage.
A Cut Above?

Here's a list of the most similar quarterbacks to Cutler over a two-year span, limited to players with four years of experience or less. The stats given are for the second of the two seasons. Our similarity scores aren't adjusted for each season, and there's no doubt that Cutler's numbers get a little help because offensive levels in the NFL are so high right now. Still, this is a pretty impressive list of quarterbacks whose careers got off to equally auspicious starts. *1982 and 1987 stats prorated due to strikes
Name Year Team G Comp Att Yds TD INT Comp% Yd/Att Age 2-Yr Sim
Jay Cutler 07-08 Den 16 384 616 4,526 25 18 62.3 7.35 25 --
Joe Montana 81-82* SF 16 379 615 4,645 30 20 61.6 7.55 26 901
Peyton Manning 99-00 Ind 16 357 571 4,413 33 15 62.5 7.73 24 831
Brett Favre 93-94 GB 16 363 582 3,882 33 14 62.4 6.67 25 786
Tom Brady 01-02 NE 16 373 601 3,764 28 14 62.1 6.26 25 775
Neil Lomax 83-84 STL 16 345 560 4,614 28 16 61.6 8.24 25 768
Bernie Kosar 86-87* Cle 16 321 519 4,044 29 12 62.0 7.80 24 750
Jim Kelly 86-87* Buf 16 333 559 3,731 25 15 59.7 6.68 27 744
Carson Palmer 05-06 Cin 16 324 520 4,035 28 13 62.3 7.76 27 741
Boomer Esiason 85-86 Cin 16 273 469 3,959 24 17 58.2 8.44 25 741
Jim Everett 88-89 LA 16 304 518 4,310 29 17 58.7 8.32 26 730

There's definitely no guarantee that Cutler will develop into a Hall of Famer like most of the other quarterbacks listed above. If we compare only Cutler's last season instead of looking at two-year spans, we find a quarterback who completely flamed out after his Pro Bowl third season.

One-Year Wonder?

Just in case the Montana mention gives you hives, Cutler could also stack up with another guy who had a big season.
Name Year Team G Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp% Yd/Att Age
Jay Cutler 2008 Den 16 384 616 4,526 25 18 62.3% 7.35 25
Don Majkowski 1989 GB 16 353 599 4,318 27 20 58.9 7.21 25

Still, the chances of that kind of flameout are small -- unlike the Majik Man, Cutler has done this for two years, not just one, and he was a first-round pick, not a 10th-rounder who had an out-of-nowhere fluke season.

Bears fans have been waiting a long time for a quarterback as good as Cutler. In 15 years of Football Outsiders' DYAR stats, Cutler has ranked in the top 10 more times (twice) than all Bears quarterbacks combined (once, Erik Kramer in 1995).

As for the Broncos, well, at least they now have the draft picks needed to rebuild their defense.

I'm so glad my Skins didn't get him, I woulda probably had to endure another "The Skins win the Superbowl of March/April" thread lol. Gotta love the Dan Snyder haters lol.

Unlikely.

Cutler is putting up silly numbers for his age, copying an ESPN insider article...

Yes, he is. I'm not saying it's great for Denver to lose a QB like Cutler, but to have four first round choices in the next two drafts will give them a chance at building a very strong team. A superstar QB alone doesn't make a great team.

Chicago definitely wins short term on the deal, but Denver could eventually be much better because of it.

If they draft well yea, but the NFL draft is so hit or miss it's insane. They really need to get better on defense, and I think Orton is more serviceable at QB than he is getting credit for right now.

If they draft well yea, but the NFL draft is so hit or miss it's insane. They really need to get better on defense....

Agreed. And I'd like to have four first round picks as opposed to two to try to shore up the D. Not saying they'll hit a home run with all four, but they have a better chance of improving.

Chicago gave up too much by giving 2 first rounders. Just one first rounder would have sufficed. That being said Cutler will be a huge upgrade over Orton/Grossman.

Also the Bears signed Orlando Pace.

They didn't give up too much. Not even close. There was no downside for Chicago in this deal.

I agree with this. Having a franchise QB is worth so much it's not even funny.

The Bears will still suck.

I often wonder if you go out of your way to be an annoying, unfunny troll or if it just comes natural to you.

Oh man, Plexico burress, one time dealer.

Oh man, Plexico burress, one time dealer.

Ehhhh... I didn't hear the rumor, but I can't decide. Strahan says he's a good teammate, but god he seems like such a moron character wise.

To be fair to the troll, the Bears probably will still suck. At least one more year.

**** that, let's do this shit. If we're going for this let's ****ing going for it, **** it.

**** that, let's do this shit. If we're going for this let's ****ing going for it, **** it.

Agreed. Worrying about "character guys" is a luxary the giants can afford, because they have the most talented front seven in the league, a pro bowl QB, and one of the best running back tandems in the league. They are a superbowl contender, with our without plax. The bears.. well. the bears are the bears... If they're gonna roll the dice and get cutler, then fck it, go for plax. If he does something stupid it, who cares, they'll just cut him. because of his legal problems, they'll be able to get a pro bowl caliber WR at a cut rate price.


The time to gamble on non-"character" guys is when...

1) You don't really have any other issue guys on your team. Check.

2) you are on the bubble, and adding that player can make huge difference. Check. A number one WR changes chicago's entire offense.

3) That player is really really talented. Check. That's why New England gambled on moss, and Dallas gambled on TO. But Plex isn't a locker room cancer, he won't pollute the team like TO did.


I just see no down side to this. I think the bears already have a great chance to win the North now, and with Plex they'd be the favorites, and once you make the playoffs, who knows what can happen? YOu can always get ligthening in a bottle. And that's why I love the cutler trade, because when you have a franchise quarterback, you will almost always make the playoffs ( or be in the play off hunt). Every year, you will be relevant.


God, I can't believe how much my excitement for the bears season has transformed in the past week. Like, a week ago, i was literally planning to not watch a single bears game, I was so bitter about their offseason. And now..... Giddy is the only word to describe me.

They didn't give up too much. Not even close. There was no downside for Chicago in this deal.

Oh man, Plexico burress, one time dealer.

No downside? Other than they still need a right tackle and maybe a receiver or four? Chicago's offense is going to be terrible, even with Cutler. They signed Orlando Pace...WOW! AWESOME! You have a guy who's 46 with his best years five seasons behind him and your best wide receiver is a 'game-breaking' punt returner who converted 50 some catches into 3 whole touchdowns. Keep Orton, draft well, profit.. errr..


Although..if the Bears could get a guy *like* Plexico, they'd be well on their way.

Oh man, Plexico burress, one time dealer.

Torry Holt? Plaxico seems to have alot of baggage coming with him considering his legal problems recently, I'm not sure how old Burress is either so that could be in his favor. I just think the Bears should pick up a WR for Cutler to throw to besides Hester.

Holt is done, I think. I'd rather have Plax. I'd rather have more talent and more baggage than a character guy on his last legs.

Isn't Marvin Harrison available?

Isn't Marvin Harrison available?

So I can have the combo of a problem guy and having someone who's got nothing in the tank? no thanks.

P.S. - is there actually a "The Skins win the Superbowl of March/April" thread?

No. Also, there's not a "Sportsmack makes himself look like an idiot" thread either...but both things are covered in the Haynesworth thread.

LMAO, let it go bro...let it go, now you just sound like a pathetic stalker. GG tho.

Holt is done, I think. I'd rather have Plax. I'd rather have more talent and more baggage than a character guy on his last legs.

Holt is 32 and Plax is 31, if I remember correctly.

It's not an "age" thing. TO has been productive well into his 30's. But, if you saw holt play last year, you'd know he's done.

Did anyone see a Rams game last season?

I'm a stalker because I read all the threads in the football forum? And I replied to a post by a poster I know well?