pop quiz: did i do the math right on 6th here or not? i am 100% certain that this guy has either 34, a3, or a4 in the hole, and he is betting 100% of 7th streets. he is, how you say, not good.

PokerStars Game #26533844456: 8-Game (Razz Limit, $4/$8) - 2009/03/30 12:00:21 ET
Table 'Cuffey III' 6-max
Seat 1: checkymcfold ($192.45 in chips)
Seat 2: NumNutz ($138.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Karimi79 ($50.40 in chips)
Seat 4: BornMunson ($200 in chips)
Seat 5: hilowman2009 ($172.40 in chips)
Seat 6: lakedogzz ($117.50 in chips)
NumNutz: posts the ante $0.80
Karimi79: posts the ante $0.80
BornMunson: posts the ante $0.80
hilowman2009: posts the ante $0.80
lakedogzz: posts the ante $0.80
checkymcfold: posts the ante $0.80
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to checkymcfold [6d 4s Ah]
Dealt to NumNutz [Tc]
Dealt to Karimi79 [6s]
Dealt to BornMunson [9s]
Dealt to hilowman2009 [Ks]
Dealt to lakedogzz [5c]
hilowman2009: brings in for $1.20
lakedogzz: calls $1.20
checkymcfold: raises $2.80 to $4
NumNutz: folds
Karimi79: folds
BornMunson: folds
hilowman2009: folds
lakedogzz: calls $2.80
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to checkymcfold [6d 4s Ah] [8h]
Dealt to lakedogzz [5c] [Jd]
checkymcfold: bets $4
lakedogzz: calls $4
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to checkymcfold [6d 4s Ah 8h] [Js]
Dealt to lakedogzz [5c Jd] [2s]
lakedogzz: bets $8
checkymcfold: calls $8
*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to checkymcfold [6d 4s Ah 8h Js] [6h]
Dealt to lakedogzz [5c Jd 2s] [4d]
lakedogzz: bets $8
checkymcfold: calls $8



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the analysis (spoilered)

here goes (i'm actually checking myself, too--i just posted this at the time that it happened to check my gut, as this sort of spot is fairly common and i should have it memorized)

the pot is 4.80+9.20+8+16+8=46+8 on 7th (he will bet 7th 100% of the time with 100% of his range) for a total of 54 - rake.

i'm calling 8 bucks here. (limiting this to 6th street analysis for now)

two fours and one ace are dead, so his combos for hole cards are: a4 (6), 34 (8), a3 (12), which is pretty close to 1:1, so we will use that and if it ends up being close, we can be more precise.

if he paired, we are, worst case scenario, looking at a 65/35 against if he has A4 down.

if he didn't pair, we're drawing dead.

thus, we have about 18% equity in this pot (about half of the 35%), and i'm getting way more than 5:1. good, easy call.

and yes, he paired, and yes, i binked a 7 and won. wootles.


edit: i guess it is a little more complicated, since i will be paying another 8 on 7th when i improve and he improves to beat me, so that's about 1/3 of 65% of the time, which is about 22% of the time. 22% of 8 is about 2, so let's say that i'm calling 10 on 6th instead of 8. still a call, but barely (and we estimated his combos unfavorably when we did the 1:1, and 22% of 8 is less than 2, so it's more clear than it seems)

Math looks close enough to being correct. What I'm not sure on is how you can put him on A3, 34, A4 in the hole, he can call third street with any three low cards

player-specific. in general, you're right, but this guy has precisely one of those three down combos literally every time. there are a fair number of razz players like this, and they can be sniffed out.

that said, i only posted this to illustrate that you can think through razz math just like you can with any other game, despite the limited info, and this hand happened to be a pretty good example of how to do so, with roundable numbers such that the math was fairly easy to do.